New Tradesports rankings

[Speed of Sound]

go obama (aww yeah post 1000)

ummm.....chief.......youre at....776 posts.....

He was refering to the number of posts in the thread.

Ah ha! So it is! Mea Culpa!

[Mr. Morden]

I still think Giuliani is vastly overvalued.  People are being taken in by the CW that says that Huckabee surging in IA is "good news" for Giuliani since it hurts Romney.  And that's distracting them from the fact that Giuliani's position in most of the early primary states is crumbling.

[Eraserhead]

I still think Giuliani is vastly overvalued.  People are being taken in by the CW that says that Huckabee surging in IA is "good news" for Giuliani since it hurts Romney.  And that's distracting them from the fact that Giuliani's position in most of the early primary states is crumbling.

Good point. It kind of looks like the Republican electorate has decided not to go with Rudy but they aren't really sure where to go yet. They are obviously starting to lean towards Huckabee though.

[Boris]

I still think Giuliani is vastly overvalued.  People are being taken in by the CW that says that Huckabee surging in IA is "good news" for Giuliani since it hurts Romney.  And that's distracting them from the fact that Giuliani's position in most of the early primary states is crumbling.

Good point. It kind of looks like the Republican electorate has decided not to go with Rudy but they aren't really sure where to go yet. They are obviously starting to lean towards Huckabee though.

leaning? The guy is ahead in Iowa, ahead in South Carolina, and ahead nationally, which may indicate some presence among the Super Tuesday states (of course, if he wins Iowa and South Carolina, he probably has the nomination anyway).

If he keeps this momentum up for a month (an eternity on the political timescale), then he's the man the Democrats need to take down.

[Mr. Morden]

leaning? The guy is ahead in Iowa, ahead in South Carolina, and ahead nationally, which may indicate some presence among the Super Tuesday states (of course, if he wins Iowa and South Carolina, he probably has the nomination anyway).

Well, point 1: He's only leading nationally according to one pollster, Rasmussen.  And Giuliani has historically underperformed in Rasmussen polls relative to other pollsters.  I'm going to want to see some polls from other pollsters before I believe that he's actually leading nationally.  And point 2: I don't think winning IA and SC guarantees Huckabee the nomination.  Not by a longshot.  If, say, Romney wins NH, MI, and NV, then it's a Huckabee-Romney race in Florida, which Romney could potentially win because of his larger bank account, which gives him momentum for Feb. 5th.

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I agree that that's the case **if he keeps this momentum up for a month**.  But that's a big if.  We can't assume that today's political trendlines are necessarily going to continue unperturbed indefinitely.  As you say, it's "an eternity on the political timescale", so a lot can still happen.

[Boris]

He's only leading nationally according to one pollster, Rasmussen.  And Giuliani has historically underperformed in Rasmussen polls relative to other pollsters.  I'm going to want to see some polls from other pollsters before I believe that he's actually leading nationally. 

True, but I tend to put my faith into Rasmussen, who was more or less dead on in 2004 and 2006. But yeah, it'd be nice to see some other credible pollsters confirm or refute his numbers.

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Have any post-Huckabee momentum polls been released from Michigan, Florida, or Nevada? I can't seem to find any; I'm more or less operating under the assumption that Huckabee has gained traction in these states. I know the 'Huckabeast' is a bit short on the cash, so that might impede his efforts to make headway into the large states such as Michigan or Florida.

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I agree. Obviously, it's impossible to predict who will win the GOP nomination when the facts are laid out. The race is simply too fluid with too many variables to consider.

[Mr. Morden]

And point 2: I don't think winning IA and SC guarantees Huckabee the nomination.  Not by a longshot.  If, say, Romney wins NH, MI, and NV, then it's a Huckabee-Romney race in Florida, which Romney could potentially win because of his larger bank account, which gives him momentum for Feb. 5th.

Have any post-Huckabee momentum polls been released from Michigan, Florida, or Nevada? I can't seem to find any; I'm more or less operating under the assumption that Huckabee has gained traction in these states. I know the 'Huckabeast' is a bit short on the cash, so that might impede his efforts to make headway into the large states such as Michigan or Florida.

Depends on how you define "post-Huckabee momentum polls".  He was building slowly for the last couple months, but it's really just the last couple of weeks that he's taken off like a rocket.  Anyway, there have been three FL polls released in the last week and a half or so:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?fips=12

which show Huckabee gaining, but still well behind Giuliani.  There haven't been any MI polls in 3 weeks, nor any NV polls in 2.5 weeks.  (One of these pollsters really should do a MI poll soon.)

Anyway, I assume that Huckabee has made gains in MI and NV as well, but my thinking is that if Huck wins IA, followed by Romney winning NH, Romney would still be in a good position to win MI, which sets him up for the later primaries as well.  Huck's lack of $ could be a serious problem in those big states like MI and FL.  OTOH, maybe he's had some amazing fundraising this quarter, while most of the donors for the other candidates are already maxed out.  Also, sometimes a surge in the polls like this takes on a life of its own, and the better funded candidates just can't do anything to stop it.

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee now up to 20 on the GOP nomination:

Giuliani 42.0
Romney 21.2
Huckabee 20.0

Obama creeping up on Giuliani in winning individual:

Clinton 40.9
Giuliani 17.6
Obama 16.2
Huckabee 8.1
Romney 7.2

Obama's at about his highest since August in both Dem. nomination and winning individual, Clinton's at about her lowest since August in both of those markets.

[Mr. Morden]

Wow, latest GOP nomination numbers:

Giuliani 41.7
Huckabee 28.3
Romney 21.0

What the Huck?

[Erc]

There was a (very) brief spike in Huck's numbers for a minute or two.  It's calmed back down to 22.4--which is still ahead of Romney at 21.0

[Eraserhead]

Wow, latest GOP nomination numbers:

Giuliani 41.7
Huckabee 28.3
Romney 21.0

What the Huck?

The Newsweek Iowa poll should explain that.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Some Democrats slightly down; no real corresponding gains.

Huckabee gains at Giuliani and Romney's expenses; now not so far behind Romney for 2nd place.

Democrats
Clinton 63.9
Obama 27.5
Edwards 4.9
Gore 2.7
Richardson 0.3
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 41.0
Romney 21.0
Huckabee 20.0
McCain 8.1
Thompson 5.0
Paul 4.8
Rice 1.4
Gingrich 0.3

Huckabee today:

[© tweed]

Giuliani is so overvalued it hurts...

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Giuliani is so overvalued it hurts...

But risky.  You're betting $59 to win $41.

The smarter play to bet against Giuliani is to just buy Romney and Huckabee (and Thompson and McCain if you want to play it ultrasafe, though I doubt there's any realistic chance Thompson can become the consensus conservative choice now that Huckabee is rising through the South).

Selling Giuliani costs 59.  Buying the two big names costs only 41.  Buying all four big names costs you 53.4, which is still cheaper.

(Throw in Paul, and you're STILL cheaper than selling Giuliani at 59.  The only way you lose is if the Rice bettors are actually time travelers from the future.)

[Mr. Morden]

IMHO, the smarter way to bet against Giuliani is to bet against him winning Florida.  If he loses the nomination, it'll be because he's crushed by the momentum of Huckabee and/or Romney winning the early states, in which case, Giuliani will be twisting in the wind by the time Florida votes on Jan. 29th.  Yet Giuliani is at a whopping 73.0 to win Florida.  Way, way too high.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton slides some more.

Giuliani has a significant drop. Romney also drops, allowing Huckabee to claim 2nd place. Thompson's crash and burn continues, while Paul gains a bit.


Democrats
Clinton 63.0
Obama 27.9
Edwards 4.9
Gore 2.7
Biden 0.4
Richardson 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 38.7
Huckabee 20.2
Romney 19.3
McCain 8.1
Paul 5.6
Thompson 4.5
Rice 1.4
Gingrich 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

Obama hits 30 in the Dem. nomination market:

Clinton 64.5
Obama 30.0

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton's slide continues, with Obama gaining. More people realize that Gore isn't running.

Giuliani slightly up at Romney's expense. Thompson and Paul switch places again.

Democrats
Clinton 62.0
Obama 28.5
Edwards 4.9
Gore 2.3
Richardson 0.3
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 39.5
Huckabee 20.0
Romney 18.9
McCain 8.2
Thomspon 5.4
Paul 4.9
Rice 1.4
Gingrich 0.3

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Winning individual

Clinton 40.0
Giuliani 17.9
Obama 16.1
Huckabee 8.6
Romney 7.0
McCain 2.7
Paul 2.6
Edwards 2.1
Gore 1.5
Thompson 1.2
Bloomberg 0.4
Biden 0.2
Field 0.1

Winning Party
Democrat 59.6
Republican 38.4
Field 2.0

Democratic odds
House 86.0
Senate 89.9

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Paul 2.6
Gore 1.5
Thompson 1.2

LOL

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee's now taking a serious hit, down to 17.3 in the GOP market, back below Romney.  Obama has surged in the SC primary market, and is now dead even with Clinton on who's most likely to win the state.

And there's a new market up now....IA+NH.  You can bet on the probability of each of the candidates winning both states together.  And another new market....IA+nomination: the probability that each candidate will win both IA and the nomination.

[Eraserhead]

Odd that Huckabee is taking a hit.... I hear some really good polling will be coming out for him later today.

[Mr. Morden]

I think Huckabee's media honeymoon is coming to an end, as more damaging stories about his past words and actions have been coming out recently, and this may be giving some bettors pause.  Plus, it may be sinking in that, even with his momentum in the polls, Huckabee faces an uphill challenge in playing on the same field with rivals that are way ahead of him in money and organization.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I think Huckabee's media honeymoon is coming to an end, as more damaging stories about his past words and actions have been coming out recently

"damaging stories"?  I highly doubt that. 

The Parole case is balanced with his record on capital punishment and most voters are adult enough to understand paroles are risky but neccessary in most cases.

On the AIDS issues, his comments were typical of many during the late 80's and early 90's, and, in retrospect, isolation in the early 80's would have helped contain the spread of the virus in the U.S.

He is also not afraid to identfy sin as the cause of most of our social problems, problems that government can't solve.

I expect him to continue to rise in the polls.  The media is basically serving up red meat to the social conseratives.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton is really getting hammered on Intrade today.  She's now dropped to 60.0, with Obama at 30.4.  That's the first time she's had less than double Obama's number in many months.