New Tradesports rankings

[Eraserhead]

Obama is surging because of the Gallup Poll that came out showing him leading Hillary by a point for the first time and more importantly because of the fundraising buzz (which indicates that he will beat Clinton by a wide margin this quater).

[Verily]

Obama is surging because of the Gallup Poll that came out showing him leading Hillary by a point for the first time and more importantly because of the fundraising buzz (which indicates that he will beat Clinton by a wide margin this quater).

It will be interesting to see, then, if Obama can turn cash into votes the way Romney has.

[Eraserhead]

Obama is surging because of the Gallup Poll that came out showing him leading Hillary by a point for the first time and more importantly because of the fundraising buzz (which indicates that he will beat Clinton by a wide margin this quater).

It will be interesting to see, then, if Obama can turn cash into votes the way Romney has.

Not sure what you mean by that. Obama is doing much better than Romney nationally. Romney is doing better in New Hamphire and Iowa I suppose, if thats what mean...

[Verily]

Obama is surging because of the Gallup Poll that came out showing him leading Hillary by a point for the first time and more importantly because of the fundraising buzz (which indicates that he will beat Clinton by a wide margin this quater).

It will be interesting to see, then, if Obama can turn cash into votes the way Romney has.

Not sure what you mean by that. Obama is doing much better than Romney nationally. Romney is doing better in New Hamphire and Iowa I suppose, if thats what mean...

Romney had a huge first quarter cash advantage over his Republican rivals. Obama had only a small advantage over Clinton. Romney was very effective in the first quarter at using his money advantage to gain ground in Iowa and New Hampshire as well as nationwide.

[Mr. Morden]

So which of the following do you expect to happen first (if they happen at all)?

- F. Thompson odds to win GOP nomination surpasses Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination

- Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination

- Romney odds to win GOP nomination surpasses McCain odds to win GOP nomination

- Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election

The first, followed by the second. The third won't happen and the fourth would only happen if Gore actually announces he's running (he won't).

Well, the third has in fact happened.  Romney odds to win the nomination has surpassed McCain odds to win the nomination.  And Fred Thompson has surpassed both of them.  Present odds:

Giuliani 29.1
Thompson 23.8
Romney 20.6
McCain 20.2

Well, ya can't get 'em all right

No problem.  Anyway, the fourth thing on the list has now also happened.  Gore odds to win the general election have topped McCain's odds to win the general election.  At the rate McCain's been dropping, we might just see Gore odds to win the Democratic nomination exceed McCain odds to win the GOP nomination.

Or how about Fred Thompson odds to win the GOP nomination passing Obama odds to win the Dem. nomination?  How long before that happens?

[Likely Voter]

are you guys going off bid/offer or last

the following is the current offer prices (which makes sense since that is what it will cost you to make your bet)

GOP   Nomination / President
THOMPSON(F)   28.8 / 15.9
GIULIANI   25.8 / 13.5
ROMNEY   22.4 / 10.7
MCCAIN   12.9 / 8.8


Dems:   Nom / Pres
CLINTON   49.8 / 34.6
OBAMA   30.8 / 17.9
GORE   10.7 / 7.9
EDWARDS   5.9 / 3.6

I guess once you have to put your money where your mouth is...then it is 50/50 that we are looking at President Hillary

[SPC]

are you guys going off bid/offer or last

the following is the current offer prices (which makes sense since that is what it will cost you to make your bet)

GOP   Nomination / President
THOMPSON(F)   28.8 / 15.9
GIULIANI   25.8 / 13.5
ROMNEY   22.4 / 10.7
MCCAIN   12.9 / 8.8


Dems:   Nom / Pres
CLINTON   49.8 / 34.6
OBAMA   30.8 / 17.9
GORE   10.7 / 7.9
EDWARDS   5.9 / 3.6

I guess once you have to put your money where your mouth is...then it is 50/50 that we are looking at President Hillary

I'm going to divide those and come up with their winning probablity should they win the nomination:

Thompson 55%
Giuliani 52%
Romney 48%
McCain 68%
Clinton 69%
Obama 58%
Gore 74%
Edwards 61%

So, Tradesports would indicate that McCain would be the Republican with the best chance in the general election, while Gore would be the Democrat with the best chance in the general election. What's odd is that every candidate exceot Romney has a better chance than not of winning the general election if they were nominated.

[Likely Voter]

^
I am not exactly sure you can infer that really

[© tweed]

jfern hasn't logged in for a week+ so I'll take it upon myself to update this.  It's good to have a record of it.

McCain has crashed into single digits.  Kinda shocking to think he was at 55% eight months ago.

Democrats
Clinton 49.3
Obama 29.0
Gore 11.3
Edwards 5.4
Richardson 1.8
Clark 0.6
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Thompson 30.0
Giuliani 28.5
Romney 19.3
McCain 9.5
Gingrich 2.1
Paul 1.6
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.8
Hagel 0.8
Bloomberg 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Brownback 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

[SPC]

McCain has crashed into single digits.  Kinda shocking to think he was at 55% eight months ago.

Ding dong
The witch is dead!
The witch is dead!
The witch is dead!
Ding dong
The witch is really dead!...

[CARLHAYDEN]

Can someone explain why the big change in the past month?

Candidate     May 17     June 17     Change

Thompson       14.4           30           +15.6
Giuliani            30              28.5        -   1.5
Romney           17.9           19.3        +  1.4
McCain             27.6             9.5        - 18.1

[DownWithTheLeft]

Can someone explain why the big change in the past month?

Candidate     May 17     June 17     Change

Thompson       14.4           30           +15.6
Giuliani            30              28.5        -   1.5
Romney           17.9           19.3        +  1.4
McCain             27.6             9.5        - 18.1

Maybe because Fred Thompson has announced and was previously nothing?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Maybe I missed something but, when did Thompson announce his candidacy?

Also, how does this explain the dramatic drop in the McCain support?

Remember  that McCain lost more support than Thompson gained.

Has something happened over the last month that might account for the big McCain drop.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Maybe I missed something but, when did Thompson announce his candidacy?

Also, how does this explain the dramatic drop in the McCain support?

Remember  that McCain lost more support than Thompson gained.

Has something happened over the last month that might account for the big McCain drop.

1. Thompson formed an exploratory committee (http://www.imwithfred.com) and will annouce on July 4th I believe

2. It does not indicate a drop in support, but rather a drop in chance of winning the nomination

3. It shows that people feel that Thompson's entrance has to eliminate someone and because of his recent catastrophe's topped off by the immigration bill, that person is McCain

[CARLHAYDEN]

Maybe I missed something but, when did Thompson announce his candidacy?

Also, how does this explain the dramatic drop in the McCain support?

Remember  that McCain lost more support than Thompson gained.

Has something happened over the last month that might account for the big McCain drop.

1. Thompson formed an exploratory committee (http://www.imwithfred.com) and will annouce on July 4th I believe

2. It does not indicate a drop in support, but rather a drop in chance of winning the nomination

3. It shows that people feel that Thompson's entrance has to eliminate someone and because of his recent catastrophe's topped off by the immigration bill, that person is McCain

First, thank you for the information (which I already had).  I thought you had said that Thompson "has announced."  If this had occured, it would have been news to me.

Second, its nice to know that a candidate perceived drop in chance of winning the nomination occurs without any actual drop in real support.  Hmm, are you saying that the assessment of his likelhood of winning the nomination overstated his real chances and that the new assessnebt merely reflects a better understanding of the probability of his being nominated as opposed to a real decrease in support for his candidacy.

Third, if I understand you correctly, are you suggesting that but for the entrance of the Thompson candidacy McCain's likelihood of receiving the nomination would not have signficantly decreased?   The Romney people are telling me that but for the Thompson candidacy, they would now be riding the crest of the nomination wave.

[Mr. Morden]

First, thank you for the information (which I already had).  I thought you had said that Thompson "has announced."  If this had occured, it would have been news to me.

He's announced the formation of an exploratory committee, which is pretty much as good as announcing that he's running.  Huckabee also hasn't done an official announcement that he's running (only an exploratory committee), but it's pretty obvious that he's running.  The actual announcement of candidacy is little more than a formality.

[CARLHAYDEN]

First, thank you for the information (which I already had).  I thought you had said that Thompson "has announced."  If this had occured, it would have been news to me.

He's announced the formation of an exploratory committee, which is pretty much as good as announcing that he's running.  Huckabee also hasn't done an official announcement that he's running (only an exploratory committee), but it's pretty obvious that he's running.  The actual announcement of candidacy is little more than a formality.



Hmm.

Ever hear of the "Friends of Evan Bayh"  exploratory committee?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone who bought McCain stock early on just got SCREWED.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

ouch.

[Mr. Morden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well yes, Bayh dropped out.  Just like other candidates have and will drop out.  But I still think that once you have an exploratory committee, you're basically running.  Kerry didn't officially announce his 2004 campaign until freaking September of 2003, after having spent the first 8 months of the year campaigning, raising money, and participating in multiple debates.  I just don't see how the official announcement of candidacy really means anything these days.

[CARLHAYDEN]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well yes, Bayh dropped out.  Just like other candidates have and will drop out.  But I still think that once you have an exploratory committee, you're basically running.  Kerry didn't officially announce his 2004 campaign until freaking September of 2003, after having spent the first 8 months of the year campaigning, raising money, and participating in multiple debates.  I just don't see how the official announcement of candidacy really means anything these days.

Sorry, but Bayh never announced, therefor he didn't drop out since he was never truly "in."

Check with the FEC and they will tell you there are numerous legal differences between announced candidacies and exploratory committees.

[Likely Voter]

McCain's meteoric drop is amazing. I think people kept thinking he was 'McCain 2000'...the independent maverick...a perfect candidate for a 'change election'

but once people took a look they realized he has changed....he now seems much older and he has linked himself to Bush on the two big issues. One to piss off the right (immigration) and one to piss off the middle and the left (Iraq).

what is his next trick...to say 'I hate kittens and babies'?


by the way...what is the price that you guys focus on here?
bid, ask or latest?
I would imagine that last or ask would be best

[Mr. Morden]

Check with the FEC and they will tell you there are numerous legal differences between announced candidacies and exploratory committees.

Well yes, obviously there are *legal* differences, but that's not the point.  The point is that nowadays, by the time most candidates make official declarations of their candidacy, it's already clear that they're running.  (The exploratory committee allows them to do pretty much  everything an "official" candidate can do.)  That's why, for example, McCain didn't get any bounce out of his April announcement that he's running, as it was already pretty clear that he was doing so even before the announcement.  Same with Kerry in 2003, and I can cite any number of other examples.  Likewise, Thompson got a bounce out of his exploratory committee announcement, because the doubters realized "Oh, I guess he really *is* running after all."

[CARLHAYDEN]

McCain's meteoric drop is amazing. I think people kept thinking he was 'McCain 2000'...the independent maverick...a perfect candidate for a 'change election'

but once people took a look they realized he has changed....he now seems much older and he has linked himself to Bush on the two big issues. One to piss off the right (immigration) and one to piss off the middle and the left (Iraq).

what is his next trick...to say 'I hate kittens and babies'?


by the way...what is the price that you guys focus on here?
bid, ask or latest?
I would imagine that last or ask would be best

Uh, actually I believe he's planning on pouring gasoline on kittens and babies and then setting them afire.

[© tweed]

Giuliani passed Thompson earlier in the day but Thompson has regained a small lead since.

Democrats
Clinton 49.0
Obama 29.7
Gore 10.7
Edwards 5.0
Richardson 1.8
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.2

Republicans
Thompson 31.5
Giuliani 30.0
Romney 20.6
McCain 8.5
Gingrich 2.1
Paul 1.8
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.9
Hagel 0.8
Bloomberg 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Brownback 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1