New Tradesports rankings

[Reignman]

I'm happy that McCain is falling.

[Mr. Morden]

Why is Edwards tanking so badly?  He's now down to 5.5.

[SPC]

Why is Edwards tanking so badly?  He's now down to 5.5.

Maybe because his chances of winning are slim-to-none.

[Mr. Morden]

By the way, Intrade now has a market in which people can bet on the chances that Michael Bloomberg runs for the White House as an independent.  Current market price is 24.5% chance that he'll do so.  The "winning party" market also gives a 2.6% chance that a third party or independent candidate will win the general election.

[Verily]

McCain regains some ground; still in fourth. Edwards has also rebounded. Paul has replaced Hagel as the favorite anti-war Republican.

Giuliani 27.0
Romney 23.0
Thompson 22.1
McCain 19.9
Gingrich 3.0
Huckabee 2.2
Paul 1.3
Rice 1.1
Hagel 1.0
All others <1

Clinton 51.1
Obama 29.9
Gore 9.9
Edwards 7.9
Richardson 3.0
All others <1

By the way, Intrade now has a market in which people can bet on the chances that Michael Bloomberg runs for the White House as an independent.  Current market price is 24.5% chance that he'll do so.  The "winning party" market also gives a 2.6% chance that a third party or independent candidate will win the general election.

At this point, I think the odds of Bloomberg launching an independent bid are inversely related to Giuliani winning the Republican nomination. Bloomberg had said that he wouldn't run if Giuliani were the Republican candidate (though that was a while ago), and talks with Hagel on an independent run look serious. (I wouldn't be surprised, though, if Bloomberg ends up teaming up with Paul, who is ideological much closer to him than Hagel and has more or less the same name recognition these days.)

[Mr. Morden]

(I wouldn't be surprised, though, if Bloomberg ends up teaming up with Paul, who is ideological much closer to him than Hagel and has more or less the same name recognition these days.)

Not sure if Paul would go for that.  I don't follow NYC closely enough to have any examples offhand, but I thought Bloomberg was heavily into nanny statism, like smoking bans?  Also, what's Bloomberg's foreign policy ideology?  I would guess it would be more "internationalist" like Hagel, rather than "isolationist" like Paul, even if he agrees more with Paul on Iraq.

[Verily]

(I wouldn't be surprised, though, if Bloomberg ends up teaming up with Paul, who is ideological much closer to him than Hagel and has more or less the same name recognition these days.)

Not sure if Paul would go for that.  I don't follow NYC closely enough to have any examples offhand, but I thought Bloomberg was heavily into nanny statism, like smoking bans?  Also, what's Bloomberg's foreign policy ideology?  I would guess it would be more "internationalist" like Hagel, rather than "isolationist" like Paul, even if he agrees more with Paul on Iraq.

Smoking bans are the sort of local issues that Paul or Bloomberg wouldn't have any say in as President, so the issue is kind of irrelevant. Bloomberg is not nearly so supportive of such nanny state laws as Giuliani was (under whom most of New York City's such laws were implemented), but, more importantly, he focuses more on economic issues and social liberalism.

Bloomberg is generally big on education and health care but opposed to most any other sort of government spending and intervention, with the idea that a strong economy is built on educated, healthy workers who are motivated to make money and unfettered by religious and social restrictions, which I think is, broadly speaking, Paul's position but not Hagel's.

The one major national issue I could see Paul and Bloomberg at odds on would be gun control, but I think both can appreciate that gun control is essential in cities and at least not beneficial in rural areas.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards, McCain, Paul gain.
Hagel loses.

Democrats
Clinton 51.1
Obama 29.9
Gore 9.9
Edwards 7.9
Richardson 3.0
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 27.0
Romney 23.0
Thompson 22.3
McCain 19.9
Gingrich 3.0
Huckabee 2.2
Paul 1.3
Rice 1.1
Hagel 1.0
Bloomberg 0.7
Cheney 0.6
Brownback 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
T. Thompson 0.3
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

[SPC]

Yes, Paul has finally beat Condi Rice.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Its interesting to see changes in the rankings over time.

Candidate                Date                    Change
                      5/17/07     5/28/07

Giuliani             30.0          27.0             -3.0
McCain              27.6         19.9             -7.7
Romney            17.9          23.0            +5.1
Thompson        14.4          22.3            +7.9

While the change in the Giuliani support level is comparatively modest, and in line with a gradual reduction in support since early April, can anyone explain the rather significant drop in support for McCain, and the corresponding significant increasein support for Romney and Thompson? 

[Mr. Morden]

Thompson gains on news that he is in fact running, putting him in second place:

Giuliani 26.7
Thompson 24.4
Romney 23.0
McCain 17.3

Thompson has also surpassed McCain and Romney in the "winning individual" market, which means he's now rated as the second most likely Republican to end up going all the way and winning the general election (after Giuliani).

[Mr. Morden]

By the way, approximately one year ago today, the Tradesports odds to win the GOP nomination were something like this:

McCain 40
Allen 18
Romney 13
Giuliani 10
Rice 5
F. Thompson not even listed yet

Approximately two years ago, they were something like this:

Allen 20
McCain 18
Frist 14
Giuliani 10
Romney 8
Rice 5
F. Thompson not even listed yet

(I just got that by eyeballing the graphs, so numbers are approximate.)

[Mr. Morden]

Update: It's now:

F. Thompson 26.9
Giuliani 25.6
Romney 23.0
McCain 17.6

Thompson has taken the lead for the first time ever.  Going by the Intrade numbers, Thompson is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Update: It's now:

F. Thompson 26.9
Giuliani 25.6
Romney 23.0
McCain 17.6

Thompson has taken the lead for the first time ever.  Going by the Intrade numbers, Thompson is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination.

About what I expected.

Giuliani continues to slide.

Thompson continues to gain.

Romney stable.

McCain drops further.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Thompson gets a boost because after a couple of months of thought, he announced that he'll create a commitee to decide whether or not to run. Real decisive guy.

Up: Gore, Thompson
Down:  Obama, Edwards, Giuliani, McCain, Hagel


Edwards, McCain, Paul gain.
Hagel loses.

Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 28.8
Gore 10.5
Edwards 6.9
Richardson 3.0
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 25.9
Thompson 24.8
Romney 23.0
McCain 17.5
Gingrich 2.8
Huckabee 2.3
Paul 1.6
Rice 1.1
Cheney 0.4
Bloomberg 0.4
Brownback 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Hagel 0.3
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Powell 0.1

[SPC]

Thompson gets a boost because after a couple of months of thought, he announced that he'll create a commitee to decide whether or not to run. Real decisive guy.

The commitee is all but an informal announcement of his candidacy.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Thompson gets a boost because after a couple of months of thought, he announced that he'll create a commitee to decide whether or not to run. Real decisive guy.

Feelin' the heat, eh?

[© tweed]

Thompson gets a boost because after a couple of months of thought, he announced that he'll create a commitee to decide whether or not to run. Real decisive guy.

Feelin' the heat, eh?

trust me, no Democrat is scared of Fred Thompson.

[Speed of Sound]

Thompson gets a boost because after a couple of months of thought, he announced that he'll create a commitee to decide whether or not to run. Real decisive guy.

Feelin' the heat, eh?

trust me, no Democrat is scared of Fred Thompson.

i A/\/\!!!!    </Dennis Kucinich>

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Thompson gets a boost because after a couple of months of thought, he announced that he'll create a commitee to decide whether or not to run. Real decisive guy.

Feelin' the heat, eh?

trust me, no Democrat is scared of Fred Thompson.

i A/\/\!!!!    </Dennis Kucinich>

I have no idea what your post means, but if you're comparing Fred to Dennis, you're smoking crack!

[© tweed]

Thompson gets a boost because after a couple of months of thought, he announced that he'll create a commitee to decide whether or not to run. Real decisive guy.

Feelin' the heat, eh?

trust me, no Democrat is scared of Fred Thompson.

i A/\/\!!!!    </Dennis Kucinich>

I have no idea what your post means, but if you're comparing Fred to Dennis, you're smoking crack!

I think he meant that the only Democrat who is (or should be) scared of Thompson is Dennis Kucinich.  However, my interpretation might be as wrong as yours.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I think he meant that the only Democrat who is (or should be) scared of Thompson is Dennis Kucinich.  However, my interpretation might be as wrong as yours.

ok, your interpretation makes more sense than mine...though I think both of you are seriously underestimating Fred.

[SPC]

Whoa. Paul is now at 2.1!

[Speed of Sound]

Thompson gets a boost because after a couple of months of thought, he announced that he'll create a commitee to decide whether or not to run. Real decisive guy.

Feelin' the heat, eh?

trust me, no Democrat is scared of Fred Thompson.

i A/\/\!!!!    </Dennis Kucinich>

I have no idea what your post means, but if you're comparing Fred to Dennis, you're smoking crack!

I think he meant that the only Democrat who is (or should be) scared of Thompson is Dennis Kucinich.  However, my interpretation might be as wrong as yours.

No, you pretty much nailed it Boss. It was pretty much a shot at Dennis.

[SPC]

Cool. At 3.0, Paul is now officially the leading second-tier candidate.