New Tradesports rankings

[minionofmidas]

Congress "authorization" was not really a declaration of war so much as it was a decision that we believe there is reason to suspect that war might become necessary and as such, we will give the authority to our president to make that decision based on the facts at the time, without having to deal with an emergency resolution that might not occur in a timely manner.

In theory, that is true. However, I think that all the legislators knew prior to the vote, that, in practice, they were voting on whether to go to war with Iraq (unless they're all incredibly naive). I personally believe that Clinton's vote was politically motivated because the case for going to war was popular at the time.

Well, obviously.

Which is actually a very worrying indicator regarding her political instincts - it didn't take a genius, not really, to figure out that "yea" would eventually come to be viewed as the wrong vote on that.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

And Fred Thompson now seems to be tanking.  Any guesses as to why that is?  Are people starting to wonder if he'll actually get in the race?

Volatility due to thin trading

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So if tommorow Thompson came out and said he's not running, who'd gain the most?

[Reignman]

So if tommorow Thompson came out and said he's not running, who'd gain the most?

Probably Romney and Gingrich?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards and Kerry gain, Biden loses.

Thompson, Hagel gain, Gingrich loses.


Democrats
Clinton 47.0
Obama 31.0
Gore 10.4
Edwards 8.2
Richardson 2.4
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.3
Warner 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 31.8
McCain 20.1
Thompson 15.3
Romney 15.2
Hagel 3.2
Gingrich 2.9
Huckabee 2.4
Bloomberg 1.2
Rice 1.2
T. Thompson 0.9
Brownback 0.6
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
J. Bush 0.3
Paul 0.2
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

[Boris]

So if tommorow Thompson came out and said he's not running, who'd gain the most?

The Democratic Party

[The Duke]

So if tommorow Thompson came out and said he's not running, who'd gain the most?

Giuliani.  He's the one whose numbers fall the most when Fred is included in a poll.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Lieberman and Gravel, LOL
Thompson is getting stale, but there's still a large gap between him and 5th place


Democrats
Clinton 47.1
Obama 31.0
Gore 10.1
Edwards 8.1
Richardson 2.6
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Lieberman 0.1
Gravel 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 30.8
McCain 21.5
Romney 17.1
Thompson 15.1
Hagel 2.8
Gingrich 2.8
Huckabee 2.1
Bloomberg 1.2
Rice 1.2
T. Thompson 0.9
Brownback 0.6
Cheney 0.4
Paul 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
Powell 0.2

[Eraserhead]

Thompson bombed in his first major speech since the Presidential talk got serious. I think my original idea that his candidacy was a complete joke may not have been far off.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Not much change.
The Lieberman and Gravel joke bids disappear.
Giuliani, Huckabee, and Paul have slight gains at Bloomberg's and others expenses.


Democrats
Clinton 47.2
Obama 30.6
Gore 10.6
Edwards 8.1
Richardson 2.5
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.4
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 31.9
McCain 21.5
Romney 17.1
Thompson 15.1
Hagel 3.0
Gingrich 2.7
Huckabee 2.4
Rice 1.2
Bloomberg 0.9
T. Thompson 0.8
Paul 0.7
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Tancredo 0.3
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

McCain has now jumped all the way up to 25.0, which is the highest level he's been at in something like two months.  And Gore has now jumped all the way to 11.0 in the "winning individual" category, which means that he's now rated as having a better chance of winning the presidency than winning the Dem. nomination ().

[Mr. Morden]

McCain is surging like mad, while Giuliani tumbles.  Current numbers:

Giuliani 28.3
McCain 27.4

Odds to go all the way and win the general election:

Clinton 26.6
Obama 21.3
Giuliani 16.5
McCain 16.0

[Verily]

McCain has now jumped all the way up to 25.0, which is the highest level he's been at in something like two months.  And Gore has now jumped all the way to 11.0 in the "winning individual" category, which means that he's now rated as having a better chance of winning the presidency than winning the Dem. nomination ().

Clearly Al Gore has hidden ambitions to seek the Republican nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

And McCain has now reached 31.0, putting him ahead of Giuliani for the first time in many many months.  What is going on?  Did people suddenly discover McCain's early primary state poll numbers and realize that the national polls aren't everything?  Or were Giuliani's donations to Planned Parenthood the straw that broke the camel's back in terms of people's expectations re: Giuliani's ability to satisfy the conservative base of the party?

[Verily]

And McCain has now reached 31.0, putting him ahead of Giuliani for the first time in many many months.  What is going on?  Did people suddenly discover McCain's early primary state poll numbers and realize that the national polls aren't everything?  Or were Giuliani's donations to Planned Parenthood the straw that broke the camel's back in terms of people's expectations re: Giuliani's ability to satisfy the conservative base of the party?

Or did some wealthy McCain supporter decide to buy up on McCain to make him seem a more likely nominee to the politically informed? While McCain skyrocketed, Giuliani only decliend somewhat in the same period, indicating that it was not so much a shift from Giuliani as a person or group or people jumping on the McCain bandwagon.

Now is probably a great time to make easy money by selling McCain on Intrade.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd love to open an account, but probably can't thanks to fascist piece of legislation Bill Frist snuck into the port security. It warns you that credit card transfers probably won't work. I suppose I could mail a check though, as inconvenient as that'd be (also deals with international air mail)

[minionofmidas]

Your username is a month off. I was born in December 1978.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One month before Aaron Weiss. Interesting.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nothing exciting on the Democratic side.
McCain has a huge gain. Romney also gains.
Giuliani drops.

Democrats
Clinton 47.7
Obama 30.1
Gore 10.3
Edwards 7.8
Richardson 2.3
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 29.9
McCain 26.0
Romney 18.1
Thompson 15.0
Hagel 2.9
Gingrich 2.7
Huckabee 2.2
Rice 1.2
Bloomberg 0.9
T. Thompson 0.8
Paul 0.7
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Tancredo 0.3
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade has now added a new section for betting on the winner of both the Iowa caucus and the NH primary (for both parties).  It's brand new though, so no one has placed a bet yet.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Someone with a lot of money or something causes a Clinton surge. Seeing as no Democrat went down, I'm sure the Democrats add up to well over 100%.

It's been a good day for McCain, he gains at Giuliani's expense.
Gingrich,  Bloomberg, Paul  lose.


Democrats
Clinton 56.0
Obama 30.3
Gore 10.7
Edwards 8.2
Richardson 2.5
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.6
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 28.6
McCain 27.4
Romney 18.0
Thompson 14.9
Hagel 2.8
Gingrich 2.5
Huckabee 2.2
Rice 1.1
T. Thompson 0.7
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Paul 0.4
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton sinks to more reasonable levels.
Strangely the other top 5 Democrats also drop, the only gainer is Bayh.

On the Republican side, McCain goes up, passing Giuliani who goes down. Thompson drops a bit. Bloomberg goes up.


Democrats
Clinton 50.6
Obama 28.4
Gore 9.9
Edwards 7.7
Richardson 2.2
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Bayh 0.1

Republicans
McCain 30.0
Giuliani 28.8
Romney 18.0
Thompson 14.0
Hagel 2.9
Gingrich 2.5
Huckabee 2.2
Bloomberg 1.2
Rice 1.1
T. Thompson 0.7
Brownback 0.5
Paul 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Current asking price for the IA and NH winners (yes, they add up to more than 100, as the ask and bid prices haven't converged yet):

IA
Clinton 45.0
Edwards 45.0
Obama 15.0
Gore 15.0

Giuliani 35.0
McCain 30.0
F. Thompson 25.0
Romney 20.0

NH
Clinton 65.0
Obama 20.0
Edwards 20.0
Gore 15.0

Giuliani 35.0
Romney 30.0
McCain 29.9
F. Thompson 20.0

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama, Clark down
Giuliani, Romney, T. Thompson down. Hagel up.

Democrats
Clinton 50.7
Obama 28.0
Gore 9.7
Edwards 7.7
Richardson 2.1
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Bayh 0.1

Republicans
McCain 29.5
Giuliani 28.8
Romney 17.6
Thompson 14.2
Hagel 3.3
Gingrich 2.5
Huckabee 2.3
Bloomberg 1.2
Rice 1.1
Brownback 0.5
Paul 0.5
T. Thompson
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[jimrtex]

Current asking price for the IA and NH winners (yes, they add up to more than 100, as the ask and bid prices haven't converged yet):

They should add up to more than 100.  Otherwise you could buy some of each an be guaranteed to make money. 

Though they ordinarily would add to something around 105.  With a new contract, someone may be offering high ask prices on everyone, hoping that people simply want to get on the action.