The Allan Lichtman Test: Obama will win re-election

[Nichlemn]

One big problem is that it gives all keys equal weighting. Even if you think all these factors are on average of similar value, surely if say Obama was charged with murder shortly before the election you couldn't say "he's only lost one key, he's still the favourite".

[Nichlemn]

I put no stock in this Lictman Test. He is basically saying it does not matter, don't vote.

Your vote doesn't matter (more than a negligible amount) anyway, regardless of what Lichtman says.