IBD/TIPP: Biden +3

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

When people decry a poll showing Biden winning more Republicans than Trump is winning Democrats plus Biden winning independents decisively as BAD for Biden, then that shows the state of the race.

[Alben Barkley]

There still may be justice for the way the Democrats treated Trump. This will be their reward for their bogus Russian collusion charge and investigation and a bogus impeachment.  They will reap what they sowed.

Oh this is good.

Saving this one for the next double digit Biden national lead/any lead in a red state poll.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Trump could do better among Hispanic voters than his 28%-66% deficit in 2016. He trails Biden among Hispanics, 36.5%-60%. Black voters prefer Biden, 76%-15%.

36.5% with Latinos would be the highest for a GOP since Dubya 2004

He could even get 40% of the Hispanic voters!

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

There still may be justice for the way the Democrats treated Trump. This will be their reward for their bogus Russian collusion charge and investigation and a bogus impeachment.  They will reap what they sowed.

Trump could do better among Hispanic voters than his 28%-66% deficit in 2016. He trails Biden among Hispanics, 36.5%-60%. Black voters prefer Biden, 76%-15%.

36.5% with Latinos would be the highest for a GOP since Dubya 2004

He could even get 40% of the Hispanic voters!

In your dreams, Alexei.

[redjohn]

There still may be justice for the way the Democrats treated Trump. This will be their reward for their bogus Russian collusion charge and investigation and a bogus impeachment.  They will reap what they sowed.

Oh this is good.

Saving this one for the next double digit Biden national lead/any lead in a red state poll.

Will look fantastic underneath the next Biden+9 poll in Pennsylvania or Biden+1 in TX

[Skill and Chance]

Immovable Biden +7 polling average strikes again.

[Hammy]

Trump is going to win again

This poll had Trump up by 2-3 points most of 2016 when Hillary won the PV by 2.

[TC 25]

Going in to Election Day, this race will be too close to call.   Biden 3-4 point lead at best.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 30 - October 1
1021 likely voters
MoE: 3.5% for likely voters
Changes with September 16-19 poll
Trends calculated pre-rounding

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 46% (+2)
Another candidate 2% (n/c)
Undecided 4% (-1)

[Alben Barkley]

Going in to Election Day, this race will be too close to call.   Biden 3-4 point lead at best.

You people are so damn predictable. Every time there’s any kind of poll like this, you come out with these bold, wild “predictions” based on it, then are nowhere to be found for the subsequent onslaught of Biden +7-13 polls, then rear your heads again when another low end outlier comes out.

It’s like clockwork.

[WD]

Not looking foward to all the hot takes and bed wetting over the next few weeks  

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

There still may be justice for the way the Democrats treated Trump. This will be their reward for their bogus Russian collusion charge and investigation and a bogus impeachment.  They will reap what they sowed.

Oh this is good.

Saving this one for the next double digit Biden national lead/any lead in a red state poll.

Will look fantastic underneath the next Biden+9 poll in Pennsylvania or Biden+1 in TX

Especially his last sentence. It will look so prescient in November.

[Ferguson97]

Biden+3

Biden+13

Average it out to Biden+8

Imagine that... Biden leading by 8.

[It’s so Joever]

Guys it’s an IBD poll, calm down.

[Alben Barkley]

Biden+3

Biden+13

Average it out to Biden+8

Imagine that... Biden leading by 8.

Well there’s actually been 4 national polls post-debate now.

Biden +3
Biden +9
Biden +10
Biden +13

Pretty obvious what the outlier is, and when you average them all out, Biden still leads by about 9.

Plus IBD has been more favorable to Trump relative to other polls in this cycle, and to the actual results in 2016. So...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Incoming meltdown.

The economy is impressive 7 percent, if Trump wins it's due to Pelosi holding up 1200 stimulus checks, she is risk costing the D's.  Unemployment checks aren't UBI benefits

[Hammy]

Going in to Election Day, this race will be too close to call.   Biden 3-4 point lead at best.

What part of "This poll was five points to the right of the actual result in the past" indicates the race will be close at the national level?

[Landslide Lyndon]

What, not even two pages yet?
Democrats are becoming complacent.

[Gass3268]

They literally changed how they weighted party ID from their last poll that completely corresponds to the change.

https://twitter.com/AstorAaron/status/1312103676459143173?s=20

[republican1993]

is this poll reliable at all or is it normally a junk poll?

[Rand]

I wonder if Trump will still be alive and well enough to attend Joe’s inauguration.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win, but D's may not have a filibuster proof Senate that allows them to Pack the Crts, the ,7 percent unemployment isnt catastrophic enough to keep unemployment as UBI benefits that will expire in March at 600. Some people are making more money on unemployment than working

[Roll Roons]

I wonder if Trump will still be alive and well enough to attend Joe’s inauguration.

He won't attend even assuming he makes a full recovery.

[Landslide Lyndon]

is this poll reliable at all or is it normally a junk poll?

Not very much. It's a right-wing poll that back in the day used to herd its numbers as the election approached in order to boast about its accuracy. I still remember in 2008 how they showed Obama ahead by 1-2 points contrary to every other pollster until their last poll which was Obama +6. 

[VAR]

3 pages lol