Assuming Trump is the Nominee...Which States Would Gary Johnson Win? Predictions

[°Leprechaun]

Green party Ballot Access to 296 Electoral Votes
Libertarian  to 332 electoral votes

[°Leprechaun]

https://www.lp.org/2016-presidential-ballot-access-map

http://www.gp.org/ballotaccess

[sparkey]

Top 10 LP states in 2012:
1. New Mexico 3.55%
2. Montana 2.93%
3. Alaska 2.46%
4. Wyoming 2.14%
5. Indiana 1.91%
6. Kansas 1.76%
7. North Dakota 1.62%
8. South Dakota 1.59%
9. Missouri 1.56%
10. Arkansas 1.52%

Bottom 5 LP states in 2012 where we were on the ballot (no ballot access in MI and OK):
5. New York 0.67%
4. Alabama 0.59%
3. New Jersey 0.58%
2. Florida 0.53%
1. Mississippi 0.52%

Best 5 states in 2008 were: Indiana, Georgia, Utah, Texas, Wyoming.
Best 5 states in 2004 were: Indiana, Idaho, Illinois, Arizona, Georgia.
Best 5 states in 2000 were: Georgia, Alaska, Colorado, Indiana, Idaho.
Best 5 states in 1996 were: Arizona, Nevada, Alaska, New Hampshire, Colorado.
Best 5 states in 1992 were: New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska, Arizona, California.
Best 5 states in 1988 were: Alaska, Montana, Idaho, Kansas, Oregon.

States that appear in top 5s multiple times since 1988: Alaska (5), Indiana (4), Arizona (3), Colorado (3), Georgia (3), Idaho (3), Montana (2), New Hampshire (2), Wyoming (2).

I believe the best LP result ever was the 11.66% in Alaska in 1980, which was admittedly greatly assisted by Kochbucks.

[Leinad]

Top 10 LP states in 2012:
1. New Mexico 3.55%
2. Montana 2.93%
3. Alaska 2.46%
4. Wyoming 2.14%
5. Indiana 1.91%
6. Kansas 1.76%
7. North Dakota 1.62%
8. South Dakota 1.59%
9. Missouri 1.56%
10. Arkansas 1.52%

What do 9 of these 10 states (good job, Indiana!) have in common? West of the Mississippi River.

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What do all 5 of these states have in common? East of the Mississippi River.

Also, slightly off topic, but interesting to me: Georgia was the best state for the LP the last General Election that I lived here (I lived elsewhere from 2001-2013).

[Mercenary]

It reminds me of the whole Kodos and Kraig thing from the simpsons. As long as we have the two party system Americans will never use their power of the vote as a group to tell the two parties to go to hell, they will continue to be subservient to their master.

It could be R-Hitler vs D-Stalin vs L-Johnson and Americans would still pick Hitler or Stalin.

[cwt]

Top 10 LP states in 2012:
1. New Mexico 3.55%
2. Montana 2.93%
3. Alaska 2.46%
4. Wyoming 2.14%
5. Indiana 1.91%
6. Kansas 1.76%
7. North Dakota 1.62%
8. South Dakota 1.59%
9. Missouri 1.56%
10. Arkansas 1.52%

What do 9 of these 10 states (good job, Indiana!) have in common? West of the Mississippi River.

True, but I'd only consider 6 of those states truly Western. West of the Mississippi is pretty arbitrary.