Portugal Legislative Elections, 10/04/2015

[Hans-im-Glück]

I have the same problem

[Hans-im-Glück]

What are the typical "swing Districts" I could look at to see what the eventual vote tally is going to look like?

Santarem or Porto

[Hans-im-Glück]

What are the typical "swing Districts" I could look at to see what the eventual vote tally is going to look like?

From a quick look, Coimbra, Porto and Santarem were the bellwethers of last time.

Right now Porto seems a lot more right-wing than the other two. If Coimbra and Santarem are to be trusted, PaF's margin should narrow significantly.

In the last elections it was: who wins Santarem, wins Portugal

[Hans-im-Glück]

Any exit polls?

PàF 43-38%
PS 35-30%
BE 8-11%
CDU 7-9%

It seem the it gives no absolute majotity

[Hans-im-Glück]

Why is Madeira reporting seperately for PPD/PSD?  I assume the alliance does not hold outside the mainland ?

In madeira and the azores have the PSD and the CDS no common list, don't ask me why

[Hans-im-Glück]

So this will likely lead to a PS govt with explicit outside support from BE and tacit Communist support, if the right doesn't win a majority?

I don't see a PS-BE-CDU government. The differences between the parties are to big. Maybe we will see a PSD minority gov. or a PSD-PS government, but this would be a surprise.

[Hans-im-Glück]

What are the primary policies or big ticket manifesto items the parties want?

Psd/cds - We make all what the troika and EU wants from us

PS - We want to do all what the troika and EU wants from us, but there is a limit what we can expect from our people.

CDU - Enough is enough. fick the EU

BE -  the CDU is to liberal against the EU

[Hans-im-Glück]

The result of my hometown Silves; district Faro

2015:

PS
Partido Socialista
30,01%
1.495 votos
   
PPD/PSD.CDS-PP
Portugal à Frente
24,41%
1.216 votos
   
PCP-PEV
CDU - Coligação Democrática Unitária
16,92%
843 votos
   
B.E.
Bloco de Esquerda
14,82%
738 votos
   
PCTP/MRPP
Partido Comunista dos Trabalhadores Portugueses
2,25%
112 votos
   
MPT
Partido da Terra
1,81%
90 votos
   
PAN
Pessoas-Animais-Natureza
1,35%
67 votos
   
PDR
Partido Democrático Republicano
1,18%
59 votos
   
L/TDA
LIVRE/Tempo de Avançar
0,88%
44 votos
   
PNR
Partido Nacional Renovador
0,78%
39 votos
   
NC
Nós, Cidadãos!
0,64%
32 votos
   
PPM
Partido Popular Monárquico
0,44%
22 votos
   
PURP
Partido Unido dos Reformados e Pensionistas
0,38%
19 votos
   
PTP-MAS
Agir
0,32%
16 votos
   
   
   
EM BRANCO
2,31%
115 votos
NULOS
1,49%
74 votos
   
2011:

PPD/PSD
Partido Social Democrata
29,03%
1.528 votos
   
PS
Partido Socialista
21,11%
1.111 votos
   
PCP-PEV
CDU - Coligação Democrática Unitária
16,70%
879 votos
   
CDS-PP
CDS - Partido Popular
11,25%
592 votos
   
B.E.
Bloco de Esquerda
9,39%
494 votos
   
PCTP/MRPP
Partido Comunista dos Trabalhadores Portugueses
2,11%
111 votos
   
PAN
Pessoas-Animais-Natureza
1,71%
90 votos
   
MPT
Partido da Terra
1,24%
65 votos
   
PNR
Partido Nacional Renovador
0,74%
39 votos
   
MEP
MEP
0,61%
32 votos
   
PPV
PPV
0,40%
21 votos
   
PPM
Partido Popular Monárquico
0,27%
14 votos
   
POUS
POUS
0,17%
9 votos
   
EM BRANCO
3,76%
198 votos
NULOS
1,52%
80 votos
   

[Hans-im-Glück]

I am a little bit proud about my Portugal.

After many years of a big crisis, no fascist or right-populist party has a chance.In other European countries it looks quite different.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Why is PaF doing so well in Lisboa? I thought the city leaned left.

The southern suburbs of Lisboa are not part of the district of Lisboa, the are part of Setúbal and they are the stronghold of the left.

[Hans-im-Glück]

When will the foreign votes be counted?

I'm not sure, but I heard that on October 14th we know the results from the Portuguese in all the world.

You can 99.9% sure that the result will be PSD 3, PS 1

[Hans-im-Glück]

When will the foreign votes be counted?

I'm not sure, but I heard that on October 14th we know the results from the Portuguese in all the world.

You can 99.9% sure that the result will be PSD 3, PS 1

I see, thanks.

So Portugal is another country where expats lean right?

The Portuguese outside from Europe are very rightwing. Especially in South Africa and North America. In Brazil too, but not so extreme.

In Europe it is different. The Portuguese in France or Switzerland voting mainly for the PS

[Hans-im-Glück]

Today Ferro Rodrigues (PS) was elected as Speaker of the parliament with the votes from PS, CDU and BE. The left show that they have a majority and the decision of President Cavaco that Passos Coelho (PSD) should form a new government is only a bad joke.