More likely to go blue in 2020: Texas or IN/MO?

[Skill and Chance]

Texas. I actually thing Democratic chances there are somewhat underrated.

Iowa and Ohio are still more likely to flip than Texas, though.

Broadly agree, but I think Texas is more likely that Iowa at this point.  Ohio is still more likely than Texas, though.  A Sanders-flavored Dem winning by about 5 nationwide would carry Ohio, while Texas would take a suburban-flavored Dem winning by at least the Obama 2008 margin.

[Skill and Chance]

It depends on the Democratic nominee. Part of the reason why Clinton did so badly in MO and IN was that she was a bad fit for the state. A Midwestern Democrat could probably make them closer than Texas.

I'm certain that had Clinton been the nominee in 2008, using her strategy then, she would have won both IN and MO.

Not sure about Indiana ... Obama had a lot of "neighboring state appeal," and Indiana isn't that populist.  The bulk of its Republican votes come from the Indianapolis suburbs (and Indy itself).  The state GOP is very pro-business.  However, I think Clinton could have also won Arkansas and West Virginia, personally.

In a >5 point win (particularly in a >10 point win) for either side, some states that flip will just be flukes.  Indiana in 2008 was like MT in 1992 or AZ in 1996.  It didn't really mean anything about the party coalitions going forward.

While 2008 was simply an automatic Dem win after the financial crisis, I think it's clear now that Hillary would have had an equal or lower margin of victory compared to Obama.