This is my point - the state polling and most of the national polling is suggesting this collapse, but it's not being shown to a large extent on Gallup and not at all on Ras...
Here is what I think is happening. The 47% comment came out last week, while these polls were being taken.
Undoubtedly, polls will tighten in October. Of course, Obama is not going to win Florida by 8 o 9 points. But you fail to include Obama was ahead in most swing states even before the 47 percent comment, even before Romney's Libya remark and, frankly, even before either the Democratic or Republican conventions. So even if polls snap back drastically, it may just snap back to a tie in Florida and slim lead for Romney in North Carolina and 5 point edge in Ohio and PA. Also, you don't seem to realize as, each day passes, more and more people make up their minds and stick to it, making wild swings less likely barring major, major bad news/crisis. Still, I fully expect the Romney is "closing the gap" and "polls tighten" stories. But "tighten" to what?? Obama with 280 electoral votes instead of 340?
They might tighten -- after further damage to the Mitt Romney campaign.
Every Presidential campaign is somehow different from others. Just because 2000 and 2004 were strangely similar in results (only three states changed how they voted, and they were close in both years) does not mean that 2008 and 2012 will be similarly alike. Mitt Romney is not John McCain. John McCain shied from the right-wing arguments of class warfare or at at least made sure that only the Elect heard them; Mitt Romney embraced them privately and got exposed. John McCain was a military hero or at least martyr; Mitt Romney has no military service. John McCain clearly demonstrated empathy for poor white people in the Mountain and Deep South; Mitt Romney has shown contempt for the poor in shocking ways.
Just because the Democrats have the incumbent President and Vice-president does not mean that the situation is the same. President Obama remains the masterful strategist and a superb speaker -- but the questions that people had about him in 2008 have largely been answered, if not always to the satisfaction of voters.
Steady usually trumps erratic. Humane usually trumps cruel. Mitt Romney would have to show some political brilliance and acumen that he has never shown so far to recover from his recent fall in polling.
