PA: Harper: Toomey leads by 20+ points

[IceSpear]

ayy lmao

[IceSpear]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the margin is probably not going to be 20 points.

That's like the safest bet ever. Barring some kind of scandal on the Dem side, Toomey's ceiling is likely a win in the high single digits.

[IceSpear]

This poll has Toomey winning 1/3 of the African American vote against Sestak, and ties Shapiro with African Americans.

[IceSpear]

IMO, those are pretty damn good numbers. Maybe PA doesn't end up being competitive after all?

It's possible Toomey is ahead by a lot right now (Quinnipiac says he is, PPP and F&M disagree), but this poll is the equivalent of someone showing a Democrat winning whites in Mississippi. It's actually mind boggling they'd have the gall to release a poll showing these kind of numbers among AAs.

[IceSpear]

Obviously a junk poll. Toomey isn't going to win by more than Santorum lost. I don't doubt that Toomey is at least somewhat ahead, but it would be foolish not to invest in this race. PA is more likely than not to stay Democratic in the presidential race, so Toomey will have to count on winning a lot of Clinton voters.

The statewide and national Dem establishment is far more focused on beating Sestak than they are on beating Toomey.

[IceSpear]

Obviously a junk poll. Toomey isn't going to win by more than Santorum lost. I don't doubt that Toomey is at least somewhat ahead, but it would be foolish not to invest in this race. PA is more likely than not to stay Democratic in the presidential race, so Toomey will have to count on winning a lot of Clinton voters.

The statewide and national Dem establishment is far more focused on beating Sestak than they are on beating Toomey.

Yeah, someone explain that to me. A guy who beats a seriously contested primary then comes within a hairsbreadth of winning a light blue state in 2010. Not to say Sestak doesn't have his weaknesses, but all things considered please tell me why again the establishment wants Shapiro??

Bitterness that he had the gall to run against Specter (and win!). Remember, everyone from Obama down heavily backed Specter in exchange for his party switch. They tried strong arming Sestak out of the race many times, and it didn't work.