A Democrat winning MO HD99 is rather surprising. I don't think that area has ever elected a Democrat before, at least, not in the last few decades. If there was any district in SW St. Louis County that would elect a Democrat, it would be 99, and most of the other adjacent districts that surround it are more heavily Republican than 99. A year ago the incumbent won re-election with only 53%, but two years before that she won her first election with 58%, while the district voted for Trump by a margin of only 5 percentage points and in general supported the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. In 2014, the district re-elected an incumbent Republican with 63.5%, and two years before that it voted for him by 59%, while generally supporting the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. So this is a big win for the Democrats. It's hard to say whether this Democrat can win a whole term next year.
And the trends continue. I'm actually wondering how the WOW counties will look like in WI next year.
If 2018 results are any indication.. pretty bad for Democrats but I am thinking the Democrat could pass 40% in Ozaukee County.
Wisconsin is bucking the "trends" slightly but it could royally suck for Democrats if Trump does as well in 2020 as 2016 in driftless and WOW does not move.
HD-99 contains Manchester, one of the tony suburbs in West St. Louis County notable for its strip malls which stretch for miles along Manchester as well as Valley Park, a more middle class Meramec River suburb that is protected by a big 'ole army corps of engineers levee. That it is now represented by a Democrat is frankly insane, but that's suburban trends for you.
It is insane especially since it was not that long ago that it was being discussed that Democrats needed to win seats in the lead belt and northern Missouri to break the GOP supermajority. Now it is clear we can break the supermajority in the suburbs. We have some room to grow locally on both sides of the state.
