Ontario General Election Prediction thread (user search)
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  Ontario General Election Prediction thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Ontario General Election Prediction thread  (Read 12674 times)
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,821


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« on: May 28, 2018, 06:56:45 AM »

What does "running up the margins" even mean for the NDP? I doubt they will be getting over 70% in many seats (if at all.. maybe Nickel Belt?), and very few over 60% margins. Again, in 'NDP strongholds' most who would potentially vote NDP already did so last time. NDP gains will be made mostly in non-NDP seats.  


I agree; I could see the NDP at +60 in say Toronto-Danforth, maybe Parkdale-High Park, Hamilton Centre, Essex and both Windsor seats, the North, basically the seats they currently hold. But I can see the NDP winning +50 in those pickups like Davenport, Toronto Centre... maybe even University-Rosedale and Spadina-Fort York.
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lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,821


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2018, 09:41:46 AM »

Popular vote: 
Liberals: 21%
PC: 33%
NDP: 40%
Greens: 3%
Other/Independents:3%

Seats:
Liberals:12 seats
PC:50 seats
NDP:62 seats
Greens: 0 seat
Other/Independents:0

Battle Ground riding predictions (I have tried to use past results and media speculation as a guide for which riding to choose. Feel free to add additional Ridings to this list that were left off.

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- Liberal
Kingston and the Islands- NDP
Peterborough- NDP

905 Belt
Ajax-PC
Oshawa-NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge- PC
King-Vaughan- PC
Brampton-East- NDP
Brampton-North- NDP
Mississauga-lake shore- Liberal
Mississauga-Streetsville- PC

GTA:
Scarborough Centre-PC
Scarborough Agincourt-PC
Scarborough Southwest- NDP
Eglinton-Lawrence- Liberal
Willowdale- Liberal
York Centre- PC
Beaches-East York- NDP
Davenport- NDP
Toronto-centre - NDP
University-Rosedale- NDP
Etobicoke North- NDP (yup, I think Ford might just lose)
Etobicoke Lakeshore- PC
Etobicoke Center- PC
York South Weston- NDP
Humber River Black Creek- NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Niagara region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St Catherine’s-NDP
Brantford-Brant-NDP
Guelph-NDP
Waterloo-NDP
London North-Centre- NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- NDP
Sault Ste Marie- NDP
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