Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Reds4]

Seems a little weird that it's all tied up with the favorables being so different. Interesting.

[Reds4]

I guess one might assume that Obama may well have had the lead in last night's individual polling numbers?

[Reds4]

RowanBrandon,

Thanks for posting the internals of this poll on a daily basis. Much appreciated!

[Reds4]

Sam,

Are you saying that you think the sample from last night individually was 50.85% to 44.89%?

Actual:
                                           samp goes tom   samp went today
Obama 51.06% (51.22%/   51.17% /             50.85%      /        50.44%)

McCain 44.36% (44.39%/   44.72% /             44.89%      /        45.05%)

[Reds4]

McCain is on the move today.. but these interviews are before the debate... thats the skeptic in me kicking in I guess.. we'll see.

[Reds4]

Sam,

Any thoughts as to whether last night's individual night of polling was a decent one for McCain in the rasmussen sample?

[Reds4]

Sam and any other rasmussen premium members,

Does rasmussen release these five polls any before 6 pm to premium members?

[Reds4]

Sam,

Looks like Obama had a pretty good night.. but the independents were closer than on many other nights so probably not a huge Obama win I would think?

[Reds4]

Sam,

Is the sample that is dropping off tommorrow a stronger one for McCain relative to the overall lead of 7 in your opinion? Looks like last night may have been Obama by 7 or 8 maybe?

Another excellent sample for Obama to replace the strong one that fell off.  If another sample such as this jumps on tomorrow, Obama's lead could jump by a point, maybe two.

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 52%
McCain 45%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	51.80%	(51.66%	50.53%	50.19%	49.55%)
McCain	44.80%	(44.83%	45.47%	45.64%	45.80%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Friday		Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	46.50	40.62	46.17	41.19	44.27	40.98	44.22	41.09	43.41	40.65
Likely	4.31	2.84	4.55	2.47	5.16	3.15	4.82	3.21	4.88	3.61
Lean	0.99	1.34	0.94	1.17	1.10	1.34	1.15	1.35	1.17	1.54

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Friday		Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	87.76	10.09	86.27	10.90	86.01	11.08	85.49	10.83	86.42	10.56
Republican	12.39	85.72	11.85	86.53	11.90	86.26	11.71	87.21	11.34	87.15
Independent	48.74	44.55	50.51	43.01	47.07	45.11	46.58	45.23	43.93	45.52

[Reds4]

Interesting that you two note that.. I was just thinking that this morning in fact. Rassy's numbers don't seem to add up... weird... I hope there is a jump in GOP, but I doubt it... strange stuff

[Reds4]

Rasmussen sure did win this cycle over gallup and zogby... thank goodness...