Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Umengus]

it's summer.

[Umengus]

Just FYI - if there's any movement in these polls going on at present (because there's nothing in the news that should be affecting the numbers), it is probably more about the growth or decline in the enthusiasm of certain groups.

the obama "move to the center" can alterate enthousiasm amongst his hard-core supporters ?

[Umengus]

Each election is special. Historic comparaisons are useless.

[Umengus]

lol, no veep bounce. clinton supporters waited probably that HRC would be nominated and are angry. Obama, you can still change! Obama, the VP change we can believe in!!!!!!!

[Umengus]

We can say:

1) no VP bounce for Obama but for Mc Cain (who have predicted that ?)

2) we are waiting for convention bounce.

Problem for Obama is that the VP will stay to the end, the hypotetical bounce convention will be out in one week.

[Umengus]

We can say:

1) no VP bounce for Obama but for Mc Cain (who have predicted that ?)

2) we are waiting for convention bounce.

Problem for Obama is that the VP will stay to the end, the hypotetical bounce convention will be out in one week.

We don't know if McCain wil get a VP bounce, He hasn't picked his yet.

Biden VP was a bounce for Mc Cain. But Obama is lucky, convention is there.

[Umengus]

Party affiliation:

June: gap: 9,5% D
July: 7,5% D
August: 5,7% D

I would like to know their party id sample.

[Umengus]

Saturday- September 20,2008
Obama 48%
McCain 47%

Looks like McCain won last night by a few points, I'm waiting for the exact numbers and will post later.

Well, as my chart indicated yesterday, the result would have to be somewhere in-between M+1.46 and M+4.46 to get this number.

Yesterday was good for McCain then...

[Umengus]

old fim is not always good firm