This sample looks like Obama +3 (roughly). Last two days before this were Obama +7.5 (yesterday) and McCain +1.5 (two days before).
The internals kind of show this, but an exceptional Obama sample among Democrats dropped off last evening, and that's where a good bit of the movement was.
Rounded Three-Day Sample
Obama 50%
McCain 47%
Three-Day Sample Breakdown
| | | samp goes tom | samp went today | |
| Obama | 50.24 | (50.89 | 50.58 | 52.46 | 52.32%) |
| McCain | 47.07 | (46.01 | 45.96 | 44.00 | 44.43%) |
Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support
| Wednesday | | Tuesday | | Monday | | Sunday | | Saturday | |
| Obama | McCain | Obama | McCain | Obama | McCain | Obama | McCain | Obama | McCain |
| Certain | 45.53 | 42.76 | 46.36 | 41.60 | 46.30 | 41.04 | 48.34 | 39.16 | 47.76 | 39.93 |
| Likely | 3.65 | 2.29 | 3.68 | 2.28 | 3.32 | 2.56 | 3.27 | 2.81 | 3.39 | 2.80 |
| Lean | 1.05 | 2.03 | 0.86 | 2.14 | 0.96 | 2.36 | 0.95 | 2.04 | 1.17 | 1.70 |
Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples
| Wednesday | | Tuesday | | Monday | | Sunday | | Saturday |
| Obama | McCain | Obama | McCain | Obama | McCain | Obama | McCain | Obama | McCain |
| Democratic | 85.42 | 12.92 | 87.70 | 10.65 | 88.10 | 10.15 | 89.64 | 8.44 | 88.33 | 9.65 |
| Republican | 10.64 | 87.45 | 10.33 | 87.30 | 10.85 | 86.77 | 12.23 | 85.69 | 12.62 | 85.55 |
| Independent | 50.38 | 44.59 | 49.90 | 44.20 | 46.48 | 46.58 | 48.59 | 44.46 | 49.52 | 44.01 |
I expected something worse for Obama in these numbers. It's just that his overall Dem support slipped a little bit, and McCain winning his base by larger numbers but among independents Obama is above 50% again.
