Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[CPT MikeyMike]

Hope you don't mind me updating this. If you do, tough!

Saturday, August 23, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, +1)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable, (-1)
McCain: 56% favorable, (+1)

Biden—who had been the frontrunner all week according to Rasmussen Markets data-- is viewed favorably by 43% of voters nationwide, unfavorably by 38%. Other than Hillary Clinton, Biden is better known than any other names floated recently as prospective running mates. Biden, who has spent more than half his life as a Senator from Delaware, is seen as politically liberal by 41%, moderate by 22%, and conservative by 15%. Obama is seen as politically liberal by 63% of voters.

This afternoon Rasmussen Reports will be asking voters nationwide if Obama made the right choice and other reaction to his decision.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Tuesday - August 26, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 46%, including leaners (-2, -2)
McCain: 44% / 46%, including leaners (+2, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable  (+1)
Obama: 53% favorable  (-2)

Today’s results are the first based entirely upon interviews conducted since Joe Biden was named to be Obama’s running mate.

Obama’s support has declined in each of the last three individual nights of polling. This may be either statistical noise or a reaction to the selection of Biden. If it’s the latter, it probably has less to do with Biden than Hillary Clinton. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Democratic women say Clinton should have been picked and 21% of them say they’ll vote for McCain.

[CPT MikeyMike]

We will not see any bounce until after Clinton speack tonight..

True....but which way?!?

Anyhow the Clinton speech probably will not be seen until Thursday's, more likely Friday's poll.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Wednesday - August 27, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 44% / 47%, including leaners (NC, +1)
Obama: 44% / 46%, including leaners (NC, NC)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable  (-1)
Obama: 53% favorable  (NC)

This is the first time since August 9 that McCain has held any advantage over Obama. The candidates have been within two points of each other on every day but two for the past month.

Today, as the Democratic National Convention focuses on national security issues, confidence in the War on Terror—and the situation in Iraq--has reached an all-time high. More Americans trust Democrats than Republicans on national security issues but McCain is trusted more than Obama. Polling conducted last night shows that 52% of voters trust McCain more on National Security issues while 41% trust Obama.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Here is where Rasmussen was the day Obama announced Biden as his running mate.

Hope you don't mind me updating this. If you do, tough!

Saturday, August 23, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, +1)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable, (-1)
McCain: 56% favorable, (+1)

And if you look at today - it is only a 1-2 point change. It insignificant. I'm not buying this Biden crap.

Wait until Sunday or Monday for Obama's post convention.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Thursday - August 28, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1 )
McCain: 44% / 47%, including leaners (NC, NC)

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable  (-1)
Obama: 54% favorable  (+1)

Reviewing recent single-night polling data—rather than the three-day average--shows that Obama lost ground immediately following the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. That had little or nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with the fact that the running mate was not named Hillary Clinton. The impact of that choice was reflected in the polling results released Tuesday and Wednesday showing modest gains for McCain.

However, events are moving rapidly this season and the impact of the convention is starting to replace the impact of the Vice Presidential announcement. New polling data shows that 74% of Democrats say their convention has unified the party and 84% believe Hillary Clinton’s speech will help Obama in the fall.

Obama’s poll numbers have improved over the past couple of nights and today’s update shows a tie race because it includes a mix of both recent trends. But it seems likely that Obama will end the convention with a modest lead over McCain. Then, of course, it will be time for the Republican Vice Presidential pick and, next week, the GOP convention.

Last week, before the conventions began, Obama led by one to three points each day.

[CPT MikeyMike]

I guess you could argue that he Tuesday's poll was Obama's lowest and he had gone up during the last two days. Yesterday's and today's poll, I believe, are as a result of the convention.

Like any poll, you can spin it anyway you want to!

[CPT MikeyMike]

Friday - August 29, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (+1, +2)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (-1, -2)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable  (+2)
McCain: 53% favorable  (-2)

This is Obama’s biggest lead since late July, when he opened up a six-point advantage following his summer speech in Berlin. A separate story looks at the Obama bounce. Other data released this morning shows that Democrats are happier now than before the convention with the choice of Joe Biden as Obama’s running mate. Overall, 74% of Democrats say their convention has unified the party.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Monday - September 01, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 44% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Obama receives favorable reviews from 85% of Democrats while McCain is now viewed favorably by 90% of Republicans. Both men are viewed favorably by 60% of unaffiliated voters. Enthusiasm among Republicans for McCain is up significantly since the announcement of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Fifty-one percent (51%) of GOP voters now have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain, the first time he has ever topped the 50% level in that measure. On Friday morning, just 43% were that enthusiastic about McCain.

Tracking poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s update is the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after Barack Obama’s acceptance speech and the selection of Palin to be McCain’s running mate.

Favorability

Obama: 58% favorable (+1)
McCain: 57% favorable (+1)

[CPT MikeyMike]

A Palin bump is there in the sense that it is a stall in the poll - mainly with Obama's numbers. If you expected a 5-8% Obama post-convention bounce well, you got that but take about a 3-4% bump for Palin so we are pretty much back to where this all started.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Monday - September 8, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 47% / 48%, including leaners (+1, nc)
Obama: 46% / 47%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

McCain: 60% favorable, 38% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-1, nc)

Last Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August.

McCain leads by four points among men while Obama leads by three among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Tuesday - September 9, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 46% / 48%, including leaners (-1, nc)
Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 59% favorable, 40% unfavorable (-1, +2)
Obama: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

One week ago today, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Now, for the first time in Election 2008, Rasmussen Markets data shows the race to be a toss-up.

Tonight, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new polling will be released for Montana. Additional state polls will be released each weeknight at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Thursday - September 11, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-1, +1)
Obama: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Tonight, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new polling will be released for Michigan, Idaho, and Wyoming. The latest update of the Generic Congressional Ballot will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.

Yesterday, for the first time ever, Rasmussen Markets data gave McCain a better than 50% chance of winning the White House in November. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants and currently give Obama a 49.0% chance of victory. Prior to this past weekend, expectations for a Democratic victory had generally been in the 60% range.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Right now, it is a tie.

Thursday - September 11, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Thank you for the clarification J.J.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Friday - September 12, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% / 49%, including leaners (+2, +1)
Obama: 45% / 46%, including leaners (-1, -2)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable, 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)
Obama: 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)

It is unusual to find a three-point jump in one day on the tracking poll. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s gain for McCain comes partly from a good night of polling last night and partly from the fact that a good night for Obama on Monday is no longer part of the sample.

McCain leads by fourteen points among men while Obama holds an eight point advantage among women. Obama has the edge among voters under 40 while McCain leads among older voters.

Today, at noon Eastern, new Presidential polling data will be released for Missouri.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Is Rasmussen now only showing with leaners?

I also found this interesting...

Voters are evenly divided as to who they think will win, but McCain voters are now more excited about the election than Obama’s. Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a 52.2% chance of victory while expectations for Obama are at 46.0%.

Is this the first time McCain has gone over 50% with victory expectations?

[CPT MikeyMike]

Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Tuesday - September 16, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% (-1)
Obama: 47% (nc)

Investor confidence fell sharply overnight, but the instant reaction on Main Street has so far been more muted. Rasmussen Reports daily tracking of economic confidence shows that 65% of American consumers say the economy is getting worse. That’s down from 77% a few months ago, but up from 60% a week ago. Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say the economy is the top voting issue for Election 2008 while 23% name national security issues as the highest priority.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters say they trust McCain more than Obama on the economy while 45% trust Obama. These figures are updated weekly and have generally found voters evenly divided.

Today, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for New York.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Wednesday - September 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% (nc)
Obama: 47% (nc)

Investor confidence has stabilized—at least for the moment--after falling sharply for several days. The economic confidence of those who do not invest was not shaken by the Wall Street events of recent days. As for the political implications, polling conducted last night shows that 49% trust McCain more than Obama on economic issues while 45% trust Obama.

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released for the Oregon Senate race and at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new results will be posted for the Presidential race in Wisconsin and Oregon.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Thursday - September 18, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% (nc)
Obama: 48% (+1)