Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Zarn]

TIPP is trash. I'm inclined to believe this is an outlier, because nothing really happened that would swing the race in the past 24 hours.

It wasn't in 2004...

[Lief 🗽]

And Zogby was awesome in 2000.

[Zarn]

And Zogby was awesome in 2000.

Zogby is highly erratic. Tipp is not.

Tipp hasn't been proven wrong, either.

[Lief 🗽]

And Zogby was awesome in 2000.

Zogby is highly erratic. Tipp is not.

Tipp hasn't been proven wrong, either.

[Zarn]

That's not erratic...

[J. J.]

TIPP is trash. I'm inclined to believe this is an outlier, because nothing really happened that would swing the race in the past 24 hours.

TIPP was 3rd in 2000 and 1st in 2004.  So far, were at Rasmussen gains McCain, Gallup holding traditional, Gallup expanded gain for Obama.

Are they all catching the same thing at the same time?  Right now, it looks like 5.5-6.0 race.

[Tender Branson]

Time for today's predictions:

Colorado:

Obama - 50
McCain - 46

Florida:

McCain - 50
Obama - 48

Missouri:

McCain - 48
Obama - 47

North Carolina:

McCain - 49
Obama - 47

Ohio:

Obama - 48
McCain - 47

Virginia:

Obama - 51
McCain - 46

[Mr.Jones]

Rasmussen Oct 27 Swing State polling numbers:
====================================
Colorado

Obama - 50
McCain- 46

Missouri

Obama - 48
McCain- 47

Ohio

Obama - 49
McCain- 45

Florida

Obama - 51
McCain- 47

North Carolina

McCain - 49
Obama - 48

Virginia

Obama - 51
McCain- 47

[Tender Branson]

Tuesday - October 28:

Obama - 51 (nc)
McCain - 46 (nc)

Later today, new polling data will be released for Arkansas, Mississippi, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

[Iosif]

Must've been a good Obama sample, probably by 8.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Tuesday - October 28:

Obama - 51 (nc)
McCain - 46 (nc)

Later today, new polling data will be released for Arkansas, Mississippi, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

There must have been a SHOCKING sample for Obama before - but it *looks* like a blip.

I'm interested in all the polls out of these states, haven't heard much out of AR for a while.

[J. J.]

Tuesday - October 28:

Obama - 51 (nc)
McCain - 46 (nc)

Later today, new polling data will be released for Arkansas, Mississippi, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

There must have been a SHOCKING sample for Obama before - but it *looks* like a blip.

I'm interested in all the polls out of these states, haven't heard much out of AR for a while.

There was an AR poll a few days ago, McCain had a healthy lead.

[Sam Spade]

Initial estimate - Obama 7-8 on last night's sample.  Most of the movement had to do with an excellent Independent sample coming on, as far as I can tell.

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.89	(50.58	52.46	52.32%	51.80%
McCain	46.01	(45.96	44.00	44.43%	44.80%

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Tuesday		Monday		Sunday		Saturday		Friday		Thursday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	46.36	41.60	46.30	41.04	48.34	39.16	47.76	39.93	46.50	40.62
Likely	3.68	2.28	3.32	2.56	3.27	2.81	3.39	2.80	4.31	2.84
Lean	0.86	2.14	0.96	2.36	0.95	2.04	1.17	1.70	0.99	1.34

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Tuesday		Monday		Sunday		Saturday		Friday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	87.70	10.65	88.10	10.15	89.64	8.44	88.33	9.65	87.76	10.09
Republican	10.33	87.30	10.85	86.77	12.23	85.69	12.62	85.55	12.39	85.72	11.85	86.53
Independent	49.90	44.20	46.48	46.58	48.59	44.46	49.52	44.01	48.74	44.55

[minionofmidas]

Tuesday - October 28:

Obama - 51 (nc)
McCain - 46 (nc)

Later today, new polling data will be released for Arkansas, Mississippi, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

There must have been a SHOCKING sample for Obama before - but it *looks* like a blip.

Well that's why they're doing these things as three-days - so obviously absurd samples read like blips.

[Rowan]

RASMUSSEN Shock: Obama Lead Down to 3 Points... Developing...

[Alcon]

I don't like how little the trackers have to do with the state numbers this year, although I tend to trust the latter more.  If we don't see tightening on the state level in the next few days, something's up.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

RASMUSSEN Shock: Obama Lead Down to 3 Points... Developing...

probably... Obama 50.49 to McCain 46.51

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Obama 50% (-1)
McCain 47% (+1)

Among those who “always” vote in general elections, Obama leads by just a single point. Obama does better among more casual voters. However, among those with a high degree of interest in this year’s campaign, Obama leads by four. Among those who say they are following the race closely on a daily basis, Obama leads by five.

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided.

Obama has a five-point advantage among those who plan to vote but say that something might come up. Hispanic voters are more likely than others to say that something might come up to prevent them from voting.

Later today, new polling data will be released for Alaska, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico.

Favorability:

Obama: 55% favorable; 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)
McCain: 54% favorable; 46% unfavorable (+1, -1)

Sickening

[Nym90]

J.J. JSojourner, and Opebo will be going nuts.

[Keystone Phil]

Ah, yes, waiter? Can we put that champagne on hold, please?

[Democratic Hawk]

J.J. JSojourner, and Opebo will be going nuts.

I can see it now . Four more years of the relentless attack on middle class living standards, the erosion of the quality of life for millions, the outsourcing of American livelihoods ...

McCain disgusts me. It's pathetic that he can only win (and he will, I'm certain of that) this thing thanks to lies, deceit, smears, scaremongering and, worse still, as a consquence of those factors, the incitement of hatred towards a political opponent

I've lost all respect I ever had for McCain beyond his service in Vietnam

Dave

[Alcon]

J.J. JSojourner, and Opebo will be going nuts.

I can see it now . Four more years of the relentless attack on middle class living standards, the erosion of the quality of life for millions, the outsourcing of American livelihoods ...

McCain disgusts me. It's pathetic that he can only win (and he will, I'm certain of that) this thing thanks to lies, deceit, smears, scaremongering and, worse still, as a consquence of those factors, the incitement of hatred towards a political opponent

I've lost all respect I ever had for McCain beyond his service in Vietnam

Dave

I don't want to be unduly mean here, but...c'mon man, we get it.

[Keystone Phil]

J.J. JSojourner, and Opebo will be going nuts.

I can see it now . Four more years of the relentless attack on middle class living standards, the erosion of the quality of life for millions, the outsourcing of American livelihoods ...

McCain disgusts me. It's pathetic that he can only win (and he will, I'm certain of that) this thing thanks to lies, deceit, smears, scaremongering and, worse still, as a consquence of those factors, the incitement of hatred towards a political opponent

I've lost all respect I ever had for McCain beyond his service in Vietnam

Dave

Oh, Christ, enough!

[Democratic Hawk]

J.J. JSojourner, and Opebo will be going nuts.

I can see it now . Four more years of the relentless attack on middle class living standards, the erosion of the quality of life for millions, the outsourcing of American livelihoods ...

McCain disgusts me. It's pathetic that he can only win (and he will, I'm certain of that) this thing thanks to lies, deceit, smears, scaremongering and, worse still, as a consquence of those factors, the incitement of hatred towards a political opponent

I've lost all respect I ever had for McCain beyond his service in Vietnam

Dave

Oh, Christ, enough!

No, I feel strongly about Election 2008 and when things need to be said, then I'll say it

Dave

[Alcon]

No, I feel strongly about Election 2008 and when things need to be said, then I'll say it

Dave

But everyone here already knows how you feel, and many probably object to aggressive partisan evangelism in a polling thread...so why does it need to be (re-re-re-re)said?