Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Wall St. Wiz]

Rassy's recent state polls in NH, FL, OH, and NC indicate a closer race then Obama +8.  His state numbers don't seem to jive with his national numbers.  Unfortunately I would put more faith in his national numbers.

[Sam Spade]

I see nothing which would stop me from concluding that this was around another Obama +8 day or so.

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 52%
McCain 44%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	52.32%	(51.80%	51.66%	50.53%	50.19%)
McCain	44.43%	(44.80%	44.83%	45.47%	45.64%

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Saturday		Friday		Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	47.76	39.93	46.50	40.62	46.17	41.19	44.27	40.98	44.22	41.09
Likely	3.39	2.80	4.31	2.84	4.55	2.47	5.16	3.15	4.82	3.21
Lean	1.17	1.70	0.99	1.34	0.94	1.17	1.10	1.34	1.15	1.35

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Saturday		Friday		Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	88.33	9.65	87.76	10.09	86.27	10.90	86.01	11.08	85.49	10.83
Republican	12.62	85.55	12.39	85.72	11.85	86.53	11.90	86.26	11.71	87.21
Independent	49.52	44.01	48.74	44.55	50.51	43.01	47.07	45.11	46.58	45.23

[J. J.]

It's not being matched by Gallup or TIPP, as of yet.  Interesting.  I expect it to be.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Actually it's not really an issue of a few polls.

Of course a few intensely competed for states will be closer than the national numbers because Obama is blowing McCain away in other areas - West Coast, NE, Mid Atlanic -Upper-midwest,

[Sam Spade]

Rassy's recent state polls in NH, FL, OH, and NC indicate a closer race then Obama +8.  His state numbers don't seem to jive with his national numbers.  Unfortunately I would put more faith in his national numbers.

Actually, I would tend to do the opposite.  Of course, maybe there is the "lag".  Whatever, anyway the state polls have been quite bumpy this week.

[Kalimantan]

I see nothing which would stop me from concluding that this was around another Obama +8 day or so.

So as he's leading by 8, then thats three +8 days in a row?

[Sam Spade]

I see nothing which would stop me from concluding that this was around another Obama +8 day or so.

So as he's leading by 8, then thats three +8 days in a row?

Ya, something around that.  There may a point or two variation one way or another (today is definitely not more than +8), and today's one-day samples don't provide a good answer as to the exact number, but ya, exactly.

[Rowan]

New RAS Party ID
D 40.0%
R 32.8%

D +7.2

[Lunar]

Sam, is this the only time that Rasmussen's sample has been more pro-Obama than Gallup's topline RV model?

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday 25th October
Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 44 (-1)

This equals Obama's biggest lead in Rasmussen.

While the overall levels of support have remained stable over the past month, voters have become more certain of their intent. Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single digits. Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain. Nine percent (9%) lean one way or the other but could change their mind. The remaining three percent (3%) are either committed to a third party candidate or remain undecided.

Thirty days ago, while Obama enjoyed a five-point lead overall, just 41% of voters were certain they would vote for him. Thirty-nine percent (39%) said the same about McCain.

[Lief 🗽]

So, Obama +7, McCain +1 in the past month. Damn. With 48% certain to vote Obama, there's really nothing McCain can do.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - October 26

Obama: 52 (nc)
McCain: 44 (nc)

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 57% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 50% favorable, 49% unfavorable (-2, +2)

[Rowan]

Obama is up to 90% of D's and only 8% crossing over for McCain. I find that a little suspect, Scott must have an outlier in the sample.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday - October 26

Obama: 52 (nc)
McCain: 44 (nc)

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 57% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 50% favorable, 49% unfavorable (-2, +2)

Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single digits. Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 39% say the same about McCain. One month ago, while Obama enjoyed a five-point lead overall, just 41% of voters were certain they would vote for him. At that time, 39% said the same about McCain.

[Sam Spade]

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 52%
McCain 44%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	52.46	(52.32%	51.80%	51.66%	50.53%)
McCain	44.00	(44.43%	44.80%	44.83%	45.47%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Sunday		Saturday		Friday		Thursday		Wednesday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	48.34	39.16	47.76	39.93	46.50	40.62	46.17	41.19	44.27	40.98
Likely	3.27	2.81	3.39	2.80	4.31	2.84	4.55	2.47	5.16	3.15
Lean	0.95	2.04	1.17	1.70	0.99	1.34	0.94	1.17	1.10	1.34

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Saturday		Friday		Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	89.64	8.44	88.33	9.65	87.76	10.09	86.27	10.90	86.01	11.08
Republican	12.23	85.69	12.62	85.55	12.39	85.72	11.85	86.53	11.90	86.26
Independent	48.59	44.46	49.52	44.01	48.74	44.55	50.51	43.01	47.07	45.11

[pepper11]

must have been a BIG night for McCain last night, maybe even even. Comeback!!

[Zarn]

It could be an outlier.

[Aizen]

must have been a BIG night for McCain last night, maybe even even. Comeback!!

No

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday - October 27

Obama: 51(-1)
McCain: 46(+2)

Obama now wins 11% of Republican votes while McCain gets 10% of Democrats. The candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. Obama leads by ten among women overall, but McCain has a five-point advantage among white women. McCain leads by a single point among men

Favorable Ratings:

Obama: 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-2, +3)
McCain: 51% favorable, 48% unfavorable (+1, -1)

[Ronnie]

Probably an outlier

[Sam Spade]

Obviously, a massive McCain sample jumped on.  My initial estimate based on other internals has McCain winning the night by around 1-2 points.  As for whether this means anything, well you know...

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.58	(52.46	52.32%	51.80%	51.66%)
McCain	45.96	(44.00	44.43%	44.80%	44.83%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Monday		Sunday		Saturday		Friday		Thursday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	46.30	41.04	48.34	39.16	47.76	39.93	46.50	40.62	46.17	41.19
Likely	3.32	2.56	3.27	2.81	3.39	2.80	4.31	2.84	4.55	2.47
Lean	0.96	2.36	0.95	2.04	1.17	1.70	0.99	1.34	0.94	1.17

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Monday		Sunday		Saturday		Friday		Thursday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	88.10	10.15	89.64	8.44	88.33	9.65	87.76	10.09	86.27	10.90
Republican	10.85	86.77	12.23	85.69	12.62	85.55	12.39	85.72	11.85	86.53
Independent	46.48	46.58	48.59	44.46	49.52	44.01	48.74	44.55	50.51	43.01

[Eraserhead]

Probably an outlier

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is when the nerves really start to set in.

I do think this was a weird sample....

[J. J.]

There could have been a bad Obama sample that dropped and Rasmussen is just playing catch up.  I really want to see Gallup and TIPP.

[Lief 🗽]

TIPP is trash. I'm inclined to believe this is an outlier, because nothing really happened that would swing the race in the past 24 hours.