Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

Observationally, the internals seem to say to me that yesterday was roughly a push and the past two days were around Obama +4 to 5 or so.

Just some more info for the thinkers out there.

[Tender Branson]

Sam or Rowan, what states can we expect today ?

Oregon, Ohio and ... ?

[Rowan]

3 p.m. Eastern: New York President
5 p.m. Eastern: Ohio President
5 p.m. Eastern: Oregon President
5 p.m. Eastern: Connecticut President

[Tender Branson]

3 p.m. Eastern: New York President
5 p.m. Eastern: Ohio President
5 p.m. Eastern: Oregon President
5 p.m. Eastern: Connecticut President

Why can't they poll AR, ND or WV ?

[Rowan]

3 p.m. Eastern: New York President
5 p.m. Eastern: Ohio President
5 p.m. Eastern: Oregon President
5 p.m. Eastern: Connecticut President

Why can't they poll AR, ND or WV ?

Because CT and NY are clear battleground states. DUH.

[Tender Branson]

3 p.m. Eastern: New York President
5 p.m. Eastern: Ohio President
5 p.m. Eastern: Oregon President
5 p.m. Eastern: Connecticut President

Why can't they poll AR, ND or WV ?

Because CT and NY are clear battleground states. DUH.

I guess Obama leads 54-41 in OR, 61-36 in NY, 48-47 in OH and 55-41 in CT.

[TheGlobalizer]

Call me when the RCP composite falls under 5... really, one point... in Rasmussen. Irrational exuberance.

RCP composite builds in more noise with all of those sh**ty polls they include.

[TheGlobalizer]

I guess Obama leads 54-41 in OR, 61-36 in NY, 48-47 in OH and 55-41 in CT.

Agree, except I'm guessing OR is more like 53-44.

[Iosif]

Friday October 17
Obama 50 (nc)
McCain 46 (nc)

Must have been a better day for Obama.

[Iosif]

It's now a month since McCain last led in Rasmussen's tracking poll.

[Sam Spade]

Friday October 17
Obama 50 (nc)
McCain 46 (nc)

Must have been a better day for Obama.

Yes, yes it was.  A fairly strong pro-Obama sample bumped on.  Most of the strongness for him was through Republicans and Indys, not Dems.  More in a second.

[Sam Spade]

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 50%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.34%	(49.56%	49.98%	50.23%	50.43%)
McCain	45.89%	(46.28%	44.75%	44.60%	44.69%

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Friday		Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	85.94	11.56	86.33	11.18	86.42	11.03	86.49	11.59	85.90	12.16
Republican	10.91	87.47	9.74	88.15	9.71	87.97	10.71	87.14	9.65	88.17
Independent	48.33	43.99	46.56	45.00	47.34	40.82	47.07	40.40	50.43	38.72

[Lief 🗽]

Probably a debate bounce.

[Rowan]

Probably a debate bounce.

Or noise.

[Keystone Phil]

Probably a debate bounce.

So either McCain is either the first person in the world to receive more support after he lost a debate or the polls showing a clear Obama win might be wrong.

The latter is clearly just a silly, McCain supporter fantasy though!

[Sam Spade]

Much as I advised yesterday, I would not read too much into one-day sample movement in the poll.

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday October 17
Obama 50 (nc)
McCain 46 (nc)

Must have been a better day for Obama.

The two candidates are even among men while Obama leads by eight points among women. Obama leads by thirteen percentage points among voters under 40 while McCain leads by six among those over 65. Voters from 40 to 64 are more evenly divided. Political conservatives favor McCain by an 80% to 17% margin while liberals favor Obama by an even wider margin, 89% to 8%

On the issues, 40% now believe their taxes will go up if Obama is elected and 30% say the same about a McCain Administration. Those numbers reflect tremendous improvement for Obama over the past couple of months.

Later today, data will be released showing public reaction to Wednesday night’s debate. Data will also be released from Colorado and Nevada.

[Tender Branson]

My predictions for today

Colorado:

Obama - 50
McCain - 46

Nevada:

Obama - 49
McCain - 46

[Nym90]

Much as I advised yesterday, I would not read too much into one-day sample movement in the poll.

Certainly. That's why these are 3 days tracking polls; people like us aren't supposed to obsess over figuring out what the numbers were each and every day. Way too much MOE in any one day poll.

If Obama does turn out to get a debate bounce, though, he's pretty much sealed the deal I'd say.

[Zarn]

Given today's numbers... unless Powell endorses McCain, we are going to be hurting as a country.

[Rowan]

Saturday-October 18, 2008
Obama 50.25%(-.09%)
McCain 45.46%(-.43%)

Tomorrow will be the most important day. A really good Mac sample will fall off tomorrow meaning that Obama should gain a point or 2 IMO.

[Wall St. Wiz]

Given today's numbers... unless Powell endorses McCain, we are going to be hurting as a country.

Why the doom and gloom? Today's numbers are the same as yesterday. I still think we're scrwed either way.

Powell is going to endorse Obama tomorrow on MTP.  Did you really think a black guy would not endorse another black guy?

[Rowan]

Given today's numbers... unless Powell endorses McCain, we are going to be hurting as a country.

Why the doom and gloom? Today's numbers are the same as yesterday. I still think we're scrwed either way.

Powell is going to endorse Obama tomorrow on MTP.  Did you really think a black guy would not endorse another black guy?

And since only 12% says its only somewhat likely it will affect their votes, the endorsement basically means nothing. Even though the liberal media will try to profess from the mountain tops that this means something.

[Zarn]

Given today's numbers... unless Powell endorses McCain, we are going to be hurting as a country.

Why the doom and gloom? Today's numbers are the same as yesterday. I still think we're scrwed either way.

Powell is going to endorse Obama tomorrow on MTP.  Did you really think a black guy would not endorse another black guy?

I've just lost faith in the public the make the right decision.

[Sam Spade]

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 50%
McCain 45%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.25%	(50.34%	49.56%	49.98%	50.23%)
McCain	45.46%	(45.89%	46.28%	44.75%	44.60%)

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Saturday		Friday		Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	86.34	11.23	85.94	11.56	86.33	11.18	86.42	11.03	86.49	11.59
Republican	11.47	86.34	10.91	87.47	9.74	88.15	9.71	87.97	10.71	87.14
Independent	47.47	42.88	48.33	43.99	46.56	45.00	47.34	40.82	47.07	40.40