Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

Still trying to isolate the McCain number, but I'm still 99.9% sure the sequence is incorrect.

Well, that has seemed likely for a while now. Why not check Alcon's thread. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=84114.0

Ya, but Alcon's sequence is incorrect also because it doesn't end up with the right internal.

[Kalimantan]

Its probably damn close, although why he puts it down to two decimal places is strange. Anyway, unless you get the exact figures, any mathmatical attempt to deduce the daily figures won't be 100%. At least these ones look about right.

[Sam Spade]

Rasmussen's one state poll release today is going to look interesting in comparison...

[Sam Spade]

Its probably damn close, although why he puts it down to two decimal places is strange. Anyway, unless you get the exact figures, any mathmatical attempt to deduce the daily figures won't be 100%. At least these ones look about right.

Well, regardless of what the actual numbers are, the simple fact I can tell you, with some certainty, is that:

Saturday:  Better than the three-day average for Obama
Sunday:  Better than the three-day average for McCain
Monday:  Better than the three-day average for Obama

[Brittain33]

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 45% (nc)

[Wiz in Wis]

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 45% (nc)

sweet

[Sam Spade]

This sample was exceptionally good for Obama, even better than the one that replaced it - based on my math Obama +10 or so.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

This sample was exceptionally good for Obama, even better than the one that replaced it - based on my math Obama +10 or so.

huh?  there was no change to the 6% Obama lead, so doesn't that mean it has to be within +/- 1.5% of the one that dropped off?

[Sam Spade]

This sample was exceptionally good for Obama, even better than the one that replaced it - based on my math Obama +10 or so.

huh?  there was no change to the 6% Obama lead, so doesn't that mean it has to be within +/- 1.5% of the one that dropped off?

Internally, Obama gained.  I'll post the number later.

I'm basing my educated guess off of the internals of the one-day sample used to test the economy and national security question, both of whose internals allowed me to isolate the sample quite nicely this time.  Somewhere around 53-43 is my number.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

This sample was exceptionally good for Obama, even better than the one that replaced it - based on my math Obama +10 or so.

huh?  there was no change to the 6% Obama lead, so doesn't that mean it has to be within +/- 1.5% of the one that dropped off?

Internally, Obama gained.  I'll post the number later.

I'm basing my educated guess off of the internals of the one-day sample used to test the economy and national security question, both of whose internals allowed me to isolate the sample quite nicely this time.  Somewhere around 53-43 is my number.

all right, but I still don't understand.  seems to me in a 3 day rolling average, if the rounded outcome doesn't change, then the new average has to be < +/- .5% of yesterday's average, which would make the new sample within +/- 1.5% of the sample that dropped off.

[Sam Spade]

Obama - 51.17% (50.85%)
McCain - 44.72% (44.89%)

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 45% (nc)

Obama leads among Democrats 87% to 11% while McCain leads among Republicans by an identical margin. For much of the year, McCain was able to count on a more unified party than Obama, but that advantage has disappeared. Obama benefits from the fact that there are more Democrats than Republicans in the nation and he also holds a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

Obama is now trusted more on economic issues by 51% of voters, McCain by 42%. That’s the biggest advantage either candidate has enjoyed on this issue during Election 2008 and the first time either candidate has been trusted more by a majority of voters. This comes at a time when 48% of voters say that the economy is the top issue while just 20% say that national security is the highest priority. Obama has nearly eliminated McCain’s advantage on national security issues and the Democrat is now trusted more than McCain on ten other key issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports.

Favorability

Obama: 58% favorable (nc); 41% unfavorable (nc)
McCain: 53% favorable (nc); 46% unfavorable (+1)

Obama today is viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 53%. However, 39% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. The comparable numbers for McCain are 25% Very Favorable and 26% Very Unfavorable. This is the first time all year that McCain’s Very Unfavorable rating has topped his Very Favorable numbers.

[Sam Spade]

Rasmussen state polling will be...

MS
McCain 52%
Obama 44%

TX
McCain 52%
Obama 43%

TN
McCain 58%
Obama 39%

[Lief 🗽]

Rasmussen state polling will be...

MS
McCain 52%
Obama 44%

TX
McCain 52%
Obama 43%

TN
McCain 58%
Obama 39%

TN really hates Obama, don't they?

TX and MS numbers look about right though.

[Franzl]

TN really hates Obama, don't they?

not according to Dick Morris.

[Rowan]

Black vote in Rasmussen polls:
MS: Obama 98%-McCain 2%
TN: Obama 98%-McCain 2%

Disgusting....

[Lief 🗽]

Black vote in Rasmussen polls:
MS: Obama 98%-McCain 2%
TN: Obama 98%-McCain 2%

Disgusting....

Black vote for generic Democratic candidates:
D 92%, R 8%
D 92%, R 8%

ohnoes

[ottermax]

Black vote in Rasmussen polls:
MS: Obama 98%-McCain 2%
TN: Obama 98%-McCain 2%

Disgusting....

If you were a voter of X descent and A party embraced the X group while the B party has people who have prejudices against you, how would you vote?

[Rowan]

Black vote in Rasmussen polls:
MS: Obama 98%-McCain 2%
TN: Obama 98%-McCain 2%

Disgusting....

If you were a voter of X descent and A party embraced the X group while the B party has people who have prejudices against you, how would you vote?

Oh thats right, Republicans are racist. I forgot. My bad.

[??????????]

Black vote in Rasmussen polls:
MS: Obama 98%-McCain 2%
TN: Obama 98%-McCain 2%

Disgusting....

Blacks being racist is no surprise of course. Seems like there's not much interest in the black community to think outside the box.

[ottermax]

Black vote in Rasmussen polls:
MS: Obama 98%-McCain 2%
TN: Obama 98%-McCain 2%

Disgusting....

Blacks being racist is no surprise of course. Seems like there's not much interest in the black community to think outside the box.

Hatred and ignorance creates more hatred and ignorance.

[??????????]

Black vote in Rasmussen polls:
MS: Obama 98%-McCain 2%
TN: Obama 98%-McCain 2%

Disgusting....

Blacks being racist is no surprise of course. Seems like there's not much interest in the black community to think outside the box.

Hatred and ignorance creates more hatred and ignorance.

Very true. You would be shocked by the amount of times at work I've heard McCain called a "cracker" and Palin called "a stupid whore".

[Nym90]

Of course some blacks are racist, just as some people of every race are. It sickens me equally no matter what the source or who it benefits.

But considering they've voted heavily Democratic for 40 years, their continuing to do so this election can't be seen as any particular racism on their part, anymore than any other group. They simply agree with and identify with the party more.

If you can show that black Republicans are voting far more for Obama than normal for a Dem, then maybe you'd have a better case for racism.

[??????????]

How many years did white southern Democrats vote one sided? Does that mean, as well, that they weren't racist?

[Nym90]

How many years did white southern Democrats vote one sided? Does that mean, as well, that they weren't racist?

They agreed with the Democrats on the issues (segregation being at the time a political issue, of course).