Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

Taking a gander through the internals of the bailout numbers Rasmussen posted this morning, which should contain the same sample for his Prez election numbers, I'm willing to make the educated guess that the sample for today is *roughly* McCain +2.

So, expect the topline numbers to remain the same, since this is *roughly* the same sample as what dropped off.

I would find it really strange that, at a time when Obama appears to be around +5 or better in the trackers, and in a day just after the debate in which Obama was considered to have done better than McCain by the watching focus groups, McCain could have a +2 sample.

On the same point, I also find it really strange that the R2K tracker is producing consecutive daily figures in sequences such as O+5, O+6, O+7, O+5, O+4 etc., and yet you are claiming that Ras, with a sample size three times larger, is flicking between such extremes as, for example O+11 and M+2 on consecutive days.

I don't really trust the R2K/Daily Kos alliance, for good reason.  You may disagree, but I stand by my principles here.

As for the Ras numbers, flickering greatly between margins seems likely to occur, especially given the crisis and uncertainty about things right now.  But don't forget, there are other tracking polls out there, other numbers to be looked at, and other data to be examined.  Rasmussen's daily result today is but a data point within a data point.

Anyway, today's numbers...

Monday, September 29, 2008
Obama 50%
McCain 45%

[Kalimantan]

I don't really trust the R2K/Daily Kos alliance, for good reason.  You may disagree, but I stand by my principles here.

You're saying you don't trust R2K to be honest - i.e. you think they are changing or making numbers up to support their client's political leanings? I find that a bit of a stretch myself.

[Zarn]

I actually expect it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The assumptions that this race is over because one candidate has a 5 point lead over the other is more than a little amusing to me, especially given that we're over a month away from election day.

[Zarn]

It's because Obama hit the 50 point mark. Given, it is not a solid 50, but it certainly doesn't look good for the man who would actually do some good.

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, September 29, 2008
Obama 50%
McCain 45%

Obama leads by fifteen points among women but trails by six among men. Obama and McCain are essentially even among White Women, a constituency that George W. Bush won by eleven points four years ago. Obama is now supported by 12% of Republicans, McCain by 11% of Democrats. For most of the year, McCain enjoyed more crossover support than Obama.

Favorability

Obama: 58% favorable; 42% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Sam Spade]

Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

[Zarn]

Future predictions...

O +14
O +10
M +3
O +16
O +12
M +4

LOL

[Sam Spade]

I should mention that opposition to the bailout, at least through last night's numbers, fell quite evenly among both Democrats, Republicans and Indys.  In fact, there really is not a  statistically significant difference between their levels of support (1/3 for, 1/3 against, 1/3 not sure), although I would say that Republicans support it slightly more than Indys who support it slightly more than Dems.

[Verily]

Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

Alcon's model disagrees with you (on both extremes). His makes much more sense, too, because it doesn't have the wild swings.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=84114.0

[Rowan]

Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

Alcon's model disagrees with you (on both extremes). His makes much more sense, too, because it doesn't have the wild swings.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=84114.0

I've already shown that model to be wrong. If you aren't using the exact three day number to two decimal places(which he is not) there is no way for the numbers to be right.

[Kalimantan]

Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

Thats just really really silly. Of course there is noise within a tracker, but O+10 to M+1, back to O+12 and then down to M+3 is completely illogical. If those are the actual results (and we know ras doesn't release them) then there is something badly badly wrong with his polling. But I don't believe those are his figures and thats just someone somewhere (maybe you?) taking the piss. There will be 1 to 3 point movement from day to day, thats all - backed up by the tracker only moving 1 or 2 points every day.

[Rowan]

Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

Thats just really really silly. Of course there is noise within a tracker, but O+10 to M+1, back to O+12 and then down to M+3 is completely illogical. If those are the actual results (and we know ras doesn't release them) then there is something badly badly wrong with his polling. But I don't believe those are his figures and thats just someone somewhere (maybe you?) taking the piss. There will be 1 to 3 point movement from day to day, thats all - backed up by the tracker only moving 1 or 2 points every day.

Who the heck makes you the resident expert on tracking polls?

[Zarn]

Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

Thats just really really silly. Of course there is noise within a tracker, but O+10 to M+1, back to O+12 and then down to M+3 is completely illogical. If those are the actual results (and we know ras doesn't release them) then there is something badly badly wrong with his polling. But I don't believe those are his figures and thats just someone somewhere (maybe you?) taking the piss. There will be 1 to 3 point movement from day to day, thats all - backed up by the tracker only moving 1 or 2 points every day.

It's not, because the whole nation is not being polled.

[Kalimantan]

Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

Thats just really really silly. Of course there is noise within a tracker, but O+10 to M+1, back to O+12 and then down to M+3 is completely illogical. If those are the actual results (and we know ras doesn't release them) then there is something badly badly wrong with his polling. But I don't believe those are his figures and thats just someone somewhere (maybe you?) taking the piss. There will be 1 to 3 point movement from day to day, thats all - backed up by the tracker only moving 1 or 2 points every day.

Who the heck makes you the resident expert on tracking polls?

No-one and nothing. Just like to see a bit of logic being used, thats all.

I mean, if you're telling me that its perfectly normal for wild 15 point swings to occur from one day to the next in tracking polls, and yet the three-day tracker to not move over that time, well I think you're a loon.

[kevinatcausa]

All other things being equal, I would expect the shifts in the daily samples to be about 1.7 times as large as those in the three day average (and about Sqrt(n) times as large as those in an n day average). 

However, I'm not enough of a statistician to be sure about what assumptions I'm making for the above statement. 

[Rowan]

Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

Thats just really really silly. Of course there is noise within a tracker, but O+10 to M+1, back to O+12 and then down to M+3 is completely illogical. If those are the actual results (and we know ras doesn't release them) then there is something badly badly wrong with his polling. But I don't believe those are his figures and thats just someone somewhere (maybe you?) taking the piss. There will be 1 to 3 point movement from day to day, thats all - backed up by the tracker only moving 1 or 2 points every day.

Who the heck makes you the resident expert on tracking polls?

No-one and nothing. Just like to see a bit of logic being used, thats all.

I mean, if you're telling me that its perfectly normal for wild 15 point swings to occur from one day to the next in tracking polls, and yet the three-day tracker to not move over that time, well I think you're a loon.

It all depends on who picks up the phone that night.

[Sam Spade]

Look folks, so long as the ladder Rowan has provided is correct, the guesses as to the actual daily numbers will be correct.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

Thats just really really silly. Of course there is noise within a tracker, but O+10 to M+1, back to O+12 and then down to M+3 is completely illogical. If those are the actual results (and we know ras doesn't release them) then there is something badly badly wrong with his polling. But I don't believe those are his figures and thats just someone somewhere (maybe you?) taking the piss. There will be 1 to 3 point movement from day to day, thats all - backed up by the tracker only moving 1 or 2 points every day.

Who the heck makes you the resident expert on tracking polls?

No-one and nothing. Just like to see a bit of logic being used, thats all.

I mean, if you're telling me that its perfectly normal for wild 15 point swings to occur from one day to the next in tracking polls, and yet the three-day tracker to not move over that time, well I think you're a loon.

there is no reason why results outside the MOE can't be clustered.  In fact, clustering should be expected.

[kevinatcausa]

On other thing:  

If there's a problem in the reverse engineering of daily samples from three day averages, it would most likely manifest itself in an error in the daily estimates having period three (meaning that an error in one day of a three day average would automatically propagate itself every three days down the line).  

To put it differently:  Random noise will tend to not have any recognizable cycles.  Methodological error will have a cycle of length three.  If your data has a conspicuous cycle of that length, there likely is an error somewhere. 

[Kalimantan]

Look folks, so long as the ladder Rowan has provided is correct, the guesses as to the actual daily numbers will be correct.

I really don't see why that should be the case. I like Kevin's reasoning better.

But when I don't have advanced maths on my side, I try and use logic. In the absence of anything to change the political landscape, the best possible pollster out there will get the same result every single day. I think Rasmussen is a good (if not infallible) pollster. The idea that we should expect random jumps because everybody isn't being polled or different peeps pick up the phone rather denies the ability of Rasmussen to be a good pollster.

[muon2]

Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

Thats just really really silly. Of course there is noise within a tracker, but O+10 to M+1, back to O+12 and then down to M+3 is completely illogical. If those are the actual results (and we know ras doesn't release them) then there is something badly badly wrong with his polling. But I don't believe those are his figures and thats just someone somewhere (maybe you?) taking the piss. There will be 1 to 3 point movement from day to day, thats all - backed up by the tracker only moving 1 or 2 points every day.

One test for the daily tracking numbers is to measure their fluctuations compared to the expected fluctuations given the margin of error. For a daily sample of 300, and assuming relatively little change in the real voter preference, 19 out of 20 daily samples should be within 5.7% of the mean. The six daily numbers shown above have an average of O +5.3, and three results are in excess of 5.7 from that average. Based on that I would be suspicious.

On other thing:  

If there's a problem in the reverse engineering of daily samples from three day averages, it would most likely manifest itself in an error in the daily estimates having period three (meaning that an error in one day of a three day average would automatically propagate itself every three days down the line).  

To put it differently:  Random noise will tend to not have any recognizable cycles.  Methodological error will have a cycle of length three.  If your data has a conspicuous cycle of that length, there likely is an error somewhere. 

This is the natural place to be suspicious, and though there are only six days, there is a clear cycle. I would agree that the statistical spread and the visible cycle lead me to think that the initial data going into the reverse engineering of the average were off. That error is now propagating forward as large daily fluctuations.

[Kalimantan]

God I love you muon2

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

i didn't think these number were reversed engineered, I thought they came from someone with a subscription into Ras...no?

[Sam Spade]

The only thing I would point out, muon2, is that I separately calculated the averages of the one-day samples using the internals of the separate one-day only polls used in:

1) Debate results (Saturday Prez sample)
2) Bailout numbers (Sunday Prez sample)

When Rasmussen gives these numbers, he also gives the internals of how they break down in GE w/leaners (McCain v. Obama).  

While not entirely accurate (he does not include the small number of undecideds), we can use these internals multiplied to the actual support of the other numbers to make an educated guess at the end number.  So, this adds a bit of a cross-check into the analysis.

For Saturday, I said Obama +7 to 8 (the formula has it at 7.70%)
For Sunday, I said McCain +2 (the formula has it at 3.22%).  Looking at the numbers again now, and doing the calculations, McCain +3 actually fits more accurately with the internals.