Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Saturday- September 27, 2008
Obama 50%
McCain 44%

[Zarn]

Yes, but it doesn't matter.

The lead was suppose to shrink, and it grew. Things will start to get really bad for everyone, all because people want to finally defeat Bush. Since they cannot defeat him, they chose to pretend someone else is him. Now, we are going to end up with the left-wing version of George Bush.

[Rowan]

If it remains at least a 3-4 point lead two weeks from now, I will be ready to throw in the towel.

[Wiz in Wis]

Saturday- September 27, 2008
Obama 50%
McCain 44%

McCain hasn't scored as low as a 44 since July 25!

[minionofmidas]

"Can we please have some different news during my campaign please?" rarely goes over well. Of course, it might be forgotten after the debates - I suppose McCain should just be happy this whole banking mess plus the suspension freakout didn't happen three weeks later.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Yes, but it doesn't matter.

The lead was suppose to shrink, and it grew. Things will start to get really bad for everyone, all because people want to finally defeat Bush. Since they cannot defeat him, they chose to pretend someone else is him. Now, we are going to end up with the left-wing version of George Bush.

Left-wing version of Bush?  Are you kidding?  How is Obama in any way, shape, or form like Pres. Bush? 

[Wiz in Wis]

Yes, but it doesn't matter.

The lead was suppose to shrink, and it grew. Things will start to get really bad for everyone, all because people want to finally defeat Bush. Since they cannot defeat him, they chose to pretend someone else is him. Now, we are going to end up with the left-wing version of George Bush.

Left-wing version of Bush?  Are you kidding?  How is Obama in any way, shape, or form like Pres. Bush? 

Barack Obama has written two books, George W Bush has read two books...

DUH!

[J. J.]

I assume yesterday's polling was prior to the debate, yes?

Probably.

[Sam Spade]

Observationally, the movement over the past few days is rather interesting. 

Obama's gains (which are not as large as the McCain drops) have to do with movement of Indys in his favor and a slight movement towards him among GOPers.

McCain's losses, while having to do with Indy movement, also have to do with GOPers moving into the undecided column.

Democrats have basically not moved at all.

For example, even though Obama clearly won the night by 11-12 points, the number that dropped off (Obama +10%) had a greater raw Obama score than the number that went on the sample (by around 0.5%).

Tells me that McCain's move on Wednesday was not well-received with swing voters or his base.  So I was wrong in interpretation there.

[Rowan]

Also Obama has gained a lot among white women the last couple of days. He now leads by 3, when McCain lead by 5 as recent as a few days ago.

[Sam Spade]

I assume yesterday's polling was prior to the debate, yes?

Probably.

The overwhelming majority of interviews for today’s report were completed before last night’s Presidential debate.

Rasmussen normally conducts interviews between 5 PM and 9 PM because, well, that's the time you're most likely to be home.

Since the debate occurred at 9 PM eastern, that would mean that a few interviews along the West Coast might have been conducted post-debate.  Probably not enough to be statistically significant, however.

[JohnCA246]

I think the verdict is out on whether McCain's drama this week was brillant or not though.

[Zarn]

Yes, but it doesn't matter.

The lead was suppose to shrink, and it grew. Things will start to get really bad for everyone, all because people want to finally defeat Bush. Since they cannot defeat him, they chose to pretend someone else is him. Now, we are going to end up with the left-wing version of George Bush.

Left-wing version of Bush?  Are you kidding?  How is Obama in any way, shape, or form like Pres. Bush? 

-The change candidate of 2000: I really believed then that Bush was going to make the United States a much better place.
-A guy that cares about my well being: Unlike Gore who only wanted to spout out liberal garbage. Sounds like Obama, except McCain doesn't actually spout out conservative garbage.
-Obama is much closer to Bush on the bailout
-FISA
-Faith Based Initiatives
-Withdrawal Timetable
-Supports increased spending (or at the very least, Bush did nothing to stop it)
-And the humorous one: Both need to learn how to speak

[Ronnie]

Saturday- September 27, 2008
Obama 50%
McCain 44%

I'm starting to get worried now.

And now you see why I'm pessimistic about this election.  There isn't much left that McCain has left.

[Tender Branson]

Saturday- September 27, 2008
Obama 50%
McCain 44%

[Lunar]

Saturday- September 27, 2008
Obama 50%
McCain 44%

Since I like to post cute & annoying images in these threads of quicksand/missiles to sum up my feelings:

[Sam Spade]

Unfortunately, your image is incorrect looking at the numbers.  It should be a missile crashing into the ground.  To help with some actual numbers:

Obama 49.81% (yesterday - 49.95%)
McCain 44.37% (yesterday - 45.16%)

[Rowan]

Unfortunately, your image is incorrect looking at the numbers.  It should be a missile crashing into the ground.  To help with some actual numbers:

Obama 49.81% (yesterday - 49.95%)
McCain 44.37% (yesterday - 45.16%)

So McCain is losing support but Obama is not gaining? Thats a little bit of good news.

[Lunar]

Unfortunately,

Oh but you just. 

Well, Obama did gain a point in the Gallup.

[Sam Spade]

Unfortunately,

Oh but you just. 

Well, Obama did gain a point in the Gallup.

I'm not surprised.  There's a certain pattern this election is following - I'm waiting to see whether we break out of it.

Just observationally for Rasmussen to give the fuller picture:

           O+11-12    M+1       O+6       O+10    M+5
Obama 49.81% (49.95%/49.47%/49.40%/48.07%/48.16%)
McCain 44.37% (45.16%/45.96%/46.56%/47.79%/46.81%)

[Wiz in Wis]

Observationally, the movement over the past few days is rather interesting. 

Obama's gains (which are not as large as the McCain drops) have to do with movement of Indys in his favor and a slight movement towards him among GOPers.

McCain's losses, while having to do with Indy movement, also have to do with GOPers moving into the undecided column.

Democrats have basically not moved at all.

For example, even though Obama clearly won the night by 11-12 points, the number that dropped off (Obama +10%) had a greater raw Obama score than the number that went on the sample (by around 0.5%).

Tells me that McCain's move on Wednesday was not well-received with swing voters or his base.  So I was wrong in interpretation there.

It may also be that republicans, since they are for small government, are bailing on a McCain who seems to be going along with Bush and the bailout... just a guess though

[ChrisFromNJ]

So a huge Obama day rolled over the tracker and he still gained 3 points??

[Rowan]

So a huge Obama day rolled over the tracker and he still gained 3 points??

He didn't gain anything. McCain lost one point.

[Sam Spade]

It may also be that republicans, since they are for small government, are bailing on a McCain who seems to be going along with Bush and the bailout... just a guess though

Possibly, but I haven't heard McCain support the bailout plan as written.  I think the other explanation makes more sense, especially since I doubt small government Rs would move over to Obama.  Over to undecided, yes.

Generally, most people are against the plan in its present form, and I would advise both candidates to vote against it, so long as it passes.  I definitely wouldn't recommend not voting.

[ChrisFromNJ]

So a huge Obama day rolled over the tracker and he still gained 3 points??

He didn't gain anything. McCain lost one point.

You're right. For some reason, I was under the impression that the tracker said Obama +3 yesterday.