Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

The five state polls to be released this afternoon are consistent with a 2-3 point Obama lead.  More later.

[Tender Branson]

Friday- September 26, 2008:

Obama - 50% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-1)

A Virginia update will be released at noon Eastern today.

It’s stunning to note how rapidly the dynamics of the campaign have changed. Two weeks ago, just before the Wall Street financial crunch became visible, McCain was up by three points in the aftermath of his convention. One week ago today, the candidates were even. Now, Obama’s lead is approaching new highs entering the final few weeks of the campaign.

Obama now leads by five among unaffiliated voters. Last week, the unaffiliated voters were leaning in McCain’s direction.

For most of Election 2008, McCain has attracted more support from Democrats than Obama earned from Republicans. That is no longer the case. Each man now attracts 12% of voters from the other political party.

McCain’s lead among white women is down to two-percentage points. This is a segment of the population that George W. Bush carried by eleven points four years ago.

Just 13% of voters now say the country is heading in the right direction. That’s down from 17% a week ago and 23% two weeks ago.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 55%. Tonight’s debate, if it takes place, could be very significant. Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say they are certain to vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say the same about McCain. The remaining 20% are the target audience for the candidates during the debates and throughout the rest of the campaign. Data to be released later today shows that Obama is seen as having better debating skills and is more likely to help his campaign at the Mississippi forum.

[Rowan]

Told you it was gonna get ugly real quick. Tomorrow should be a little better for McCain.

[afleitch]

Told you it was gonna get ugly real quick. Tomorrow should be a little better for McCain.

It may be. But there are other days after tomorrow. Particularly if there is or isn't a debate.

[Rowan]

Actual three day average:
Obama 49.95%
McCain 45.16%

Last nights estimate:

McCain +1.25

A HUGE Obama +11 sample will fall off tomorrow.

[Eraserhead]

Interesting to see that the public thinks Obama is the better debater. I'd say they are about even, although I'd probably give Obama a slight edge if I had too.

Also I'm certainly looking foward to that VA update.

[Rowan]

Interesting to see that the public thinks Obama is the better debater. I'd say they are about even, although I'd probably give Obama a slight edge if I had too.

Also I'm certainly looking foward to that VA update.

Maybe its not that they see him as a better debater, but that they see him as a better speaker overall, which they think will translate to the debate.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

at this point, I am more inclined to believe Ras over Gallop, but it is strange that they are moving in opposite directions

[ChrisFromNJ]

Interesting to see that the public thinks Obama is the better debater. I'd say they are about even, although I'd probably give Obama a slight edge if I had too.

Also I'm certainly looking foward to that VA update.

Maybe its not that they see him as a better debater, but that they see him as a better speaker overall, which they think will translate to the debate.

He is a better debater, but if I was in talking point campaign mode, I would say he wasn't, as to lower expectations.

Hillary is better than them both, and she made Obama look bad at times, but McCain would get owned in a debate by Hillary too.

[Rowan]

at this point, I am more inclined to believe Ras over Gallop, but it is strange that they are moving in opposite directions

Two big Obama outliers will roll off in the next two days. Gallup and RAS will be back near each other shortly.

[Rowan]

Interesting to see that the public thinks Obama is the better debater. I'd say they are about even, although I'd probably give Obama a slight edge if I had too.

Also I'm certainly looking foward to that VA update.

Maybe its not that they see him as a better debater, but that they see him as a better speaker overall, which they think will translate to the debate.

He is a better debater, but if I was in talking point campaign mode, I would say he wasn't, as to lower expectations.

Hillary is better than them both, and she made Obama look bad at times, but McCain would get owned in a debate by Hillary too.

I agree about Hillary. She owned Obama sometimes, and probably would have done the same to McCain on some points.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

at this point, I am more inclined to believe Ras over Gallop, but it is strange that they are moving in opposite directions

Two big Obama outliers will roll off in the next two days. Gallup and RAS will be back near each other shortly.

but the state data tells me that Obama is ahead nationally by about 3-5 points, that's why I believe RAS over Gallup

[Rowan]

at this point, I am more inclined to believe Ras over Gallop, but it is strange that they are moving in opposite directions

Two big Obama outliers will roll off in the next two days. Gallup and RAS will be back near each other shortly.

but the state data tells me that Obama is ahead nationally by about 3-5 points, that's why I believe RAS over Gallup

That's because the state polls lag the national polls by a week or so.

[Sam Spade]

I thought the sample that will fall off is O+10?

Ya, state polls tend to lag national polls a little.  Never quite figured out why.

[Rowan]

I thought the sample that will fall off is O+10?

Ya, state polls tend to lag national polls a little.  Never quite figured out why.

O +10, O+11 same difference.

[Zarn]

Okay, so I wasn't crazy in thinking it was -10.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Ya, state polls tend to lag national polls a little.  Never quite figured out why.

i believe you, but that makes no sense

[J. J.]

at this point, I am more inclined to believe Ras over Gallop, but it is strange that they are moving in opposite directions

Mid week numbers on Gallup, possibly.  McCain might be over polling on Gallup.

[Sam Spade]

Ya, state polls tend to lag national polls a little.  Never quite figured out why.

i believe you, but that makes no sense

For months, I've been telling people to be patient.  In Rasmussen, there's like a +10 Obama sample that has to drop off, which will likely push the race closer by at least a couple of points.  Also, in Hotline, the poll coming off is a pro-Obama sample of some sort.

Right now, Obama is up about 2-3 points, and I'll lean towards saying it's more like 3 points.  But it's been that way for a week now and the debates will surely change things in some respect.  The state polls are simply reflecting that reality to a certain extent, with the usual weird outliers one would expect from bad firms.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Right now, Obama is up about 2-3 points, and I'll lean towards saying it's more like 3 points. 

I'm leaning towards a 5-6 point Obama lead.

[Alcon]

Unless the race has gravitated toward Obama in the last few days, I'm seeing a pretty solid Obama +3, maybe a bit under.

[Sam Spade]

Unless the race has gravitated toward Obama in the last few days, I'm seeing a pretty solid Obama +3, maybe a bit under.

It was that way a few days ago (as I called it) - state polling takes a little time to catch up. 

Key is to try and catch the next movement. 

[Lief 🗽]

Nate Silver('s model) agrees with Sam. O +2.9

[Rowan]

Saturday- September 27, 2008
Obama 50%
McCain 44%

I'm starting to get worried now.

[Iosif]

I assume yesterday's polling was prior to the debate, yes?