Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Rowan]

Actual 3 day average:

Obama- 48.08%
McCain- 47.09%

Last night sample:

Obama- 48.58%
McCain- 46.46%

Last three days(most recent first):

Obama +2.12%
McCain +1.55%
Obama +2.69%

EDIT Some more internals for you number junkies:

R's- McCain 85.81%- Obama 11.99%
D's- Obama 81.71%- McCain 13.74%
I's- McCain 47.26%- Obama 44.35%



 

[Sam Spade]

That must have been a fairly strong "leaning" Obama sample, because the numbers w/o leaners moved from O47, M45 to O46, M46.  Or maybe one of those before it was...

Anyways, here are the new targets for tomorrow.

O+3.94 or above = Obama +2
O+0.93 to O+3.93 = Obama +1
M+2.06 to O+0.92 = Tie
M+2.07 to M+5.06 = McCain +1
M+5.07 or above = McCain +2

[pepper11]

All of these supposedly 'nightly' numbers don't jive with this posted on Rasmussen on their South Carolina Senate race.

"The South Carolina survey was conducted on Thursday night. Several state polls conducted that evening showed very positive results for Democrats and it was one of Barack Obama’s best recent nights in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. It remains to be seen whether this was a temporary blip in the race or the beginning of a new trend leading to a significant advantage for the Democrats."

This sounds like bigger than a 2 point lead for Obama as stated in previous posts.  In any case, this night will drop off tomorrow so we will likely see a tied race tomorrow.

[Sam Spade]

All of these supposedly 'nightly' numbers don't jive with this posted on Rasmussen on their South Carolina Senate race.

"The South Carolina survey was conducted on Thursday night. Several state polls conducted that evening showed very positive results for Democrats and it was one of Barack Obama’s best recent nights in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. It remains to be seen whether this was a temporary blip in the race or the beginning of a new trend leading to a significant advantage for the Democrats."

This sounds like bigger than a 2 point lead for Obama as stated in previous posts.  In any case, this night will drop off tomorrow so we will likely see a tied race tomorrow.

Rasmussen doesn't weigh his state polls to party ID, but weighs his national polls to it.  That explains the difference.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I'll just take a wild guess and say todays number will be Obama +2%.

[Rowan]

Monday- September 22, 2008
Obama 48%(nc)
McCain 47%(nc)

[Sam Spade]

Monday- September 22, 2008
Obama 48%(nc)
McCain 47%(nc)

So, where does this sample lie in the O+0.93 to O+3.93 range?

[Iosif]

BORING!

Why are Rasmussen's numbers so rigid?

[Sam Spade]

BORING!

Why are Rasmussen's numbers so rigid?

It's called party ID weights.

[Rowan]

Monday- September 22, 2008
Obama 48%(nc)
McCain 47%(nc)

So, where does this sample lie in the O+0.93 to O+3.93 range?

Waiting for my source.

[Eraserhead]

BORING!

Why are Rasmussen's numbers so rigid?

Unlike Senator Obama, Scott Rasmussen is not a fan of change, Iosif.

[Tender Branson]

Monday- September 22, 2008
Obama 48%(nc)
McCain 47%(nc)

So, where does this sample lie in the O+0.93 to O+3.93 range?

Waiting for my source.

If your source says Obama by 1-2% on Sunday (which would be close to an eventual Election Day outcome), I´m even more interested in PA, MI, VA, OH and FL.

Why can't they release it at 3pm, so that we Europeans can get the results too ?

[Rowan]

Obama won last night by 3.4%

[Sam Spade]

Obama won last night by 3.4%

So tomorrow...

O+4.98 or above = Obama +4
O+1.98 to O+4.97 = Obama +3
M+1.02 to O+1.97 = Obama +2
M+4.02 to M+1.03 = Obama +1
M+4.03 or above = Tie

[pepper11]

If your number of Obama + 3 last night is correct, the Rasmussen state pulls are insanely good for McCain as they took place on the same night.

[Brittain33]

What makes this night different from all other nights?

Tuesday- September 23, 2008
Obama 48% (nc)
McCain 48% (+1)

[Rowan]

McCain obviously won last night. I'm waiting to see by how much.

[Sam Spade]

What makes this night different from all other nights?

Tuesday- September 23, 2008
Obama 48% (nc)
McCain 48% (+1)

Dunno, but remember always 1 in 20 and MOE issues.

Obviously, last night had to be M+4.03 to M+7.02 and when we have a feed to actual internals, we can solidify.

[Rowan]

Three night actual average:

Obama 48.07%-McCain 47.80%

Last night McCain won by 5.09%.

So the last three days(most recent first):

McCain +5.09%
Obama +3.40%
Obama +2.12%

[Sam Spade]

Three night actual average:

Obama 48.07%-McCain 47.80%

Last night McCain won by 5.09%.

So the last three days(most recent first):

McCain +5.09%
Obama +3.40%
Obama +2.12%

Targets for tonight:

Obama +6.19% or above = Obama +2 or above
Obama +3.19% to 6.18% = Obama +1
Obama +0.20% to 3.18% = Tie
McCain +2.81% to Obama +0.19% = McCain +1
McCain +2.81% to McCain +5.80% = McCain +2
McCain +5.81% or above = McCain +3 or above

[Reds4]

RowanBrandon,

Thanks for posting the internals of this poll on a daily basis. Much appreciated!

[Sam Spade]

In a just FYI mode, these are the state Rasmussen has not polled this month, and we can thus expect to see numbers out of before September 30 (maybe before the end of this week even), since he says all 50 states will be polled this month.  Kansas will definitely come out today.

Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Hawaii (haven't gotten any polls out of here so far from him)
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana (hurricane-questionable)
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Nebraska
New Hampshire
Tennessee
Texas (hurricane-questionable)
West Virginia

[Tender Branson]

Kansas will definitely come out today.

CA too.

[Sam Spade]

Kansas will definitely come out today.

CA too.

And you know this how? 

[Tender Branson]

Kansas will definitely come out today.

CA too.

And you know this how? 

It's on their homepage.