Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Eraserhead]

Friday - September 19, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% (nc)
Obama: 48% (nc)

Boring

[Rowan]

I expect Obama to be up about 2 tomorrow as a strong McCain night rolls off, and 3 Obama wins will be on the sample(I expect Obama to win tonight).

[Sam Spade]

I expect Obama to be up about 2 tomorrow as a strong McCain night rolls off, and 3 Obama wins will be on the sample(I expect Obama to win tonight).

You have access to the internals, right?  What are they?

[Rowan]

I expect Obama to be up about 2 tomorrow as a strong McCain night rolls off, and 3 Obama wins will be on the sample(I expect Obama to win tonight).

You have access to the internals, right?  What are they?

No, I don't personally. But, I know MAC is +5 with Indies today, after being +2 yesterday, and that the last three nights have been (most recent first):

Obama +2.69%
Obama +3.26%
McCain +5.33%

So the MAC night will fall off, giving Obama a lead of probably 2-3 points.

[Sam Spade]

I expect Obama to be up about 2 tomorrow as a strong McCain night rolls off, and 3 Obama wins will be on the sample(I expect Obama to win tonight).

You have access to the internals, right?  What are they?

No, I don't personally. But, I know MAC is +5 with Indies today, after being +2 yesterday, and that the last three nights have been (most recent first):

Obama +2.69%
Obama +3.26%
McCain +5.33%

So the MAC night will fall off, giving Obama a lead of probably 2-3 points.

Well, thanks for the info.

I'm guessing that the Obama +2.69% of today replaced a similar number that dropped off today, right?

[Rowan]

I expect Obama to be up about 2 tomorrow as a strong McCain night rolls off, and 3 Obama wins will be on the sample(I expect Obama to win tonight).

You have access to the internals, right?  What are they?

No, I don't personally. But, I know MAC is +5 with Indies today, after being +2 yesterday, and that the last three nights have been (most recent first):

Obama +2.69%
Obama +3.26%
McCain +5.33%

So the MAC night will fall off, giving Obama a lead of probably 2-3 points.

Well, thanks for the info.

I'm guessing that the Obama +2.69% of today replaced a similar number that dropped off today, right?

The one that fell off(Monday's daily result) was Obama + 1.55%.

Today's result in decimal form is Obama 48.00%- McCain 47.79%.

[Sam Spade]

I expect Obama to be up about 2 tomorrow as a strong McCain night rolls off, and 3 Obama wins will be on the sample(I expect Obama to win tonight).

You have access to the internals, right?  What are they?

No, I don't personally. But, I know MAC is +5 with Indies today, after being +2 yesterday, and that the last three nights have been (most recent first):

Obama +2.69%
Obama +3.26%
McCain +5.33%

So the MAC night will fall off, giving Obama a lead of probably 2-3 points.

Well, thanks for the info.

I'm guessing that the Obama +2.69% of today replaced a similar number that dropped off today, right?

The one that fell off(Monday's daily result) was Obama + 1.55%.

Today's result in decimal form is Obama 48.00%- McCain 47.79%.

So, in other words, this table would be accurate for tomorrow:

McCain +4.46 or above = stays the same or better
McCain +1.46 to McCain +4.46 = Obama +1
Obama +1.54 to McCain +1.46 = Obama +2
Obama +4.54 to Obama +1.54 = Obama +3
Obama +4.54 or above = Obama +4 or more

I like all the info I can get.  Thanks. 

[Rowan]

Yes, thats why I'm expecting either an Obama +2 or Obama +3 lead.

[minionofmidas]

Ah, hadn't checked this one yet when I posted over on Gallup.

[Rowan]

Saturday- September 20,2008
Obama 48%
McCain 47%

Looks like McCain won last night by a few points, I'm waiting for the exact numbers and will post later.

[Sam Spade]

Saturday- September 20,2008
Obama 48%
McCain 47%

Looks like McCain won last night by a few points, I'm waiting for the exact numbers and will post later.

Well, as my chart indicated yesterday, the result would have to be somewhere in-between M+1.46 and M+4.46 to get this number.

[Umengus]

Saturday- September 20,2008
Obama 48%
McCain 47%

Looks like McCain won last night by a few points, I'm waiting for the exact numbers and will post later.

Well, as my chart indicated yesterday, the result would have to be somewhere in-between M+1.46 and M+4.46 to get this number.

Yesterday was good for McCain then...

[Rowan]

Last nights sample was McCain +1.85.

So last three nights(most recent first):

McCain +1.85%
Obama +2.69%
Obama +3.26%

Today 3 day average unrounded is:

Obama 48.36%
McCain 46.99%

[Iosif]

A whole bunch of numbers could fit the pattern.

[Sam Spade]

A whole bunch of numbers could fit the pattern.

The difference is - as opposed to his Gallup estimations - that these are the actual numbers copied from Rasmussen internal crosstabs.

[Tender Branson]

Nice piece of news in todays Rasmussen release:

"Looking back, four years ago today, George W. Bush held a 49% to 47% lead over John Kerry."

[J. J.]

Nice piece of news in todays Rasmussen release:

"Looking back, four years ago today, George W. Bush held a 49% to 47% lead over John Kerry."

The dynamics were different.

[Tender Branson]

Nice piece of news in todays Rasmussen release:

"Looking back, four years ago today, George W. Bush held a 49% to 47% lead over John Kerry."

The dynamics were different.

Yes, take a look:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Sep20.html

[Nym90]

Nice piece of news in todays Rasmussen release:

"Looking back, four years ago today, George W. Bush held a 49% to 47% lead over John Kerry."

The dynamics were different.

Very true. Conditions were fundamentally far more favorable for the incumbent party, thus there was no reason to really believe that Kerry was extremely likely to make a comeback, barring a change in those conditions.

[Sam Spade]

Nice piece of news in todays Rasmussen release:

"Looking back, four years ago today, George W. Bush held a 49% to 47% lead over John Kerry."

The dynamics were different.

Very true. Conditions were fundamentally far more favorable for the incumbent party, thus there was no reason to really believe that Kerry was extremely likely to make a comeback, barring a change in those conditions.

Also, at this point in 2004, the Democratic numbers were depressed quite a bit through lack of enthusiasm (pre-first debate).  Of course, Rasmussen covers that up with weighting, but it would show up in the state polls.

[Democratic Hawk]

New Rasmussen Reports Party Weighting Targets: 39.0% Democrat, 33.5% Republican

Link

Dave

[Rowan]

This week must have been a strong week for Dems in terms of Party ID.

[Democratic Hawk]

This week must have been a strong week for Dems in terms of Party ID.

Seemingly, their best week since July

This week’s adjustment shows a very slight increase in the number of Democrats, primarily offset by a decrease in the number of unaffiliated voters.

Results from this past week showed that the number of people considering themselves to Democrats spiked early in the week as the economic problems on Wall Street became visible. Overall, it was the best week for the Democrats since July. It remains to be seen whether this might lead to a lasting adjustment or be more of a bounce like that resulting from a party’s nominating convention ...

This week’s adjustment will have little impact on the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, if the partisan trends continue shifting, it could have a significant impact as Election Day draws near.

During Election 2006, there was a notable shift in partisan identification favoring Democrats as Election Day approached. During Election 2004, there was a notable shift in the opposite direction. It is impossible to know which direction this will flow during 2008 (see month-by-month results). These shifts correctly foretold the election outcome in both years.

It should be noted that the current targets are fairly similar to the ratio that existed when Democrats won control of Congress in 2006. They are also fairly close to the make-up of the electorate in the Presidential elections of 2000 and 1996.

The current targets also suggest a significantly better environment for Democrats than they faced in Election 2004. When President Bush was re-elected, there were far more Republicans in the nation than there are today… and far fewer independent voters.

[Sam Spade]

According to my math, this is my rough estimation as to what this week was.  The margin could be wider or narrower depending on what the sample for the first nine days of August was that dropped off, but I doubt it would be much wider or narrower...

DEM = (40.4%-41.0%)
GOP = (32.2%-32.7%)
IND = (26.6%-27.1%)

[Iosif]

Sunday - September 21,2008
Obama 48% (nc)
McCain 47% (nc)