Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[pepper11]

Looks like the drop off of McCain's monster Thursday and the new party ID weighting nearly cancelled each other out.

[J. J.]

McCain 49% (-1)
Obama 47% (nc)

Rasmussen agrees with Gallup again, and all is right with the world. (Except for the McCain lead.)

Now, it this with the new weighting.

[ChrisFromNJ]

McCain 49% (-1)
Obama 47% (nc)

Rasmussen agrees with Gallup again, and all is right with the world. (Except for the McCain lead.)

Now, it this with the new weighting.

Yesterday was with the new weighting too.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

[KeyKeeper]

McCain 49% (-1)
Obama 47% (nc)

Rasmussen agrees with Gallup again, and all is right with the world. (Except for the McCain lead.)

Now, it this with the new weighting.

Yesterday was with the new weighting too.

To my understanding, and I could be wrong, it read to me that yesterday numbers, which is today poll, is still on the old weight. But I could be wrong.

[Alcon]

McCain 49% (-1)
Obama 47% (nc)

Rasmussen agrees with Gallup again, and all is right with the world. (Except for the McCain lead.)

Now, it this with the new weighting.

Yesterday was with the new weighting too.

To my understanding, and I could be wrong, it read to me that yesterday numbers, which is today poll, is still on the old weight. But I could be wrong.

There's no reason that they couldn't immediately use the new weighting.  It's not like it affects what sample they take.  That's no guarantee that they did, but I don't see any logical reason why they wouldn't.

[Sam Spade]

McCain 49% (-1)
Obama 47% (nc)

Rasmussen agrees with Gallup again, and all is right with the world. (Except for the McCain lead.)

Now, it this with the new weighting.

Yesterday was with the new weighting too.

To my understanding, and I could be wrong, it read to me that yesterday numbers, which is today poll, is still on the old weight. But I could be wrong.

There's no reason that they couldn't immediately use the new weighting.  It's not like it affects what sample they take.  That's no guarantee that they did, but I don't see any logical reason why they wouldn't.

Well, Rasmussen said that from September 14-20, it would be with the new weighting.  So, while it's obvious that it would be today's sample, I don't know about yesterday.  Seems kinda unclear.

[KeyKeeper]

McCain 49% (-1)
Obama 47% (nc)

Rasmussen agrees with Gallup again, and all is right with the world. (Except for the McCain lead.)

Now, it this with the new weighting.

Yesterday was with the new weighting too.

To my understanding, and I could be wrong, it read to me that yesterday numbers, which is today poll, is still on the old weight. But I could be wrong.

There's no reason that they couldn't immediately use the new weighting.  It's not like it affects what sample they take.  That's no guarantee that they did, but I don't see any logical reason why they wouldn't.

Well, Rasmussen said that from September 14-20, it would be with the new weighting.  So, while it's obvious that it would be today's sample, I don't know about yesterday.  Seems kinda unclear.

Yea, it is very unclear, I guess it really don't matter.

[Eraserhead]

Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, to he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now (I guess).  I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

[J. J.]

McCain 49% (-1)
Obama 47% (nc)

Rasmussen agrees with Gallup again, and all is right with the world. (Except for the McCain lead.)

Now, it this with the new weighting.

Yesterday was with the new weighting too.

To my understanding, and I could be wrong, it read to me that yesterday numbers, which is today poll, is still on the old weight. But I could be wrong.

There's no reason that they couldn't immediately use the new weighting.  It's not like it affects what sample they take.  That's no guarantee that they did, but I don't see any logical reason why they wouldn't.

Well, Rasmussen said that from September 14-20, it would be with the new weighting.  So, while it's obvious that it would be today's sample, I don't know about yesterday.  Seems kinda unclear.

Yea, it is very unclear, I guess it really don't matter.

Hence my question. 

[Reaganfan]

Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now I think. I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

Phil is very adamant in the case of PA falling to McCain this time, but I still think he underestimates the stubborness of the depressing steel working towns that, along with the inner cities, help tilt PA to the dems.

[mypalfish]

Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now I think. I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

Phil is very adamant in the case of PA falling to McCain this time, but I still think he underestimates the stubborness of the depressing steel working towns that, along with the inner cities, help tilt PA to the dems.

I don't think McCain has a realistic chance in PA, either, but something is going on with the working class towns in Wisconsin.  In West Allis (very working class town), for example, there is no enthusiasm for Obama, even among Dems.  Now Obama will probably win Wisconsin, but those voters are "persuadable" this time, which they weren't when Kerry ran in 04.

[Eraserhead]

Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now I think. I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

Phil is very adamant in the case of PA falling to McCain this time, but I still think he underestimates the stubborness of the depressing steel working towns that, along with the inner cities, help tilt PA to the dems.

I don't think McCain has a realistic chance in PA, either, but something is going on with the working class towns in Wisconsin.  In West Allis (very working class town), for example, there is no enthusiasm for Obama, even among Dems.  Now Obama will probably win Wisconsin, but those voters are "persuadable" this time, which they weren't when Kerry ran in 04.

Do you live in WI?

I find a lack of enthusiasm from WI Dems a little hard to believe considering how easily he crushed Clinton there...

I also don't think there is any significant chance of him doing worse then Kerry and Gore did there.

[J. J.]

Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now I think. I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

Phil is very adamant in the case of PA falling to McCain this time, but I still think he underestimates the stubborness of the depressing steel working towns that, along with the inner cities, help tilt PA to the dems.

The ground game is mixed in Phila, and the White areas look less strong than they should.  I'll wait until 6:00 PM (and still probably won't make up my mind).

[Eraserhead]

Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now I think. I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

Phil is very adamant in the case of PA falling to McCain this time, but I still think he underestimates the stubborness of the depressing steel working towns that, along with the inner cities, help tilt PA to the dems.

The ground game is mixed in Phila, and the White areas look less strong than they should.  I'll wait until 6:00 PM (and still probably won't make up my mind).

What would you be making your mind up about exactly anyway?

[J. J.]

Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now I think. I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

Phil is very adamant in the case of PA falling to McCain this time, but I still think he underestimates the stubborness of the depressing steel working towns that, along with the inner cities, help tilt PA to the dems.

The ground game is mixed in Phila, and the White areas look less strong than they should.  I'll wait until 6:00 PM (and still probably won't make up my mind).

What would you be making your mind up about exactly anyway?

How, I'm going to call the state.  I have PA as a tossup.

[Iosif]

Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now I think. I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

Phil is very adamant in the case of PA falling to McCain this time, but I still think he underestimates the stubborness of the depressing steel working towns that, along with the inner cities, help tilt PA to the dems.

The ground game is mixed in Phila, and the White areas look less strong than they should.  I'll wait until 6:00 PM (and still probably won't make up my mind).

What would you be making your mind up about exactly anyway?

How, I'm going to call the state.  I have PA as a tossup.

We're all on tenterhooks.

By the way, is competence in grammar not a prerequisite to get into Mensa?

[J. J.]

Some big poll numbers will be released tonight from Rasmussen:

At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Well, he's going realease polls from these states every Monday now I think. I expect pretty much all of them to move slightly more toward McCain as compared to where they were last week.

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

Phil is very adamant in the case of PA falling to McCain this time, but I still think he underestimates the stubborness of the depressing steel working towns that, along with the inner cities, help tilt PA to the dems.

The ground game is mixed in Phila, and the White areas look less strong than they should.  I'll wait until 6:00 PM (and still probably won't make up my mind).

What would you be making your mind up about exactly anyway?

How, I'm going to call the state.  I have PA as a tossup.

We're all on tenterhooks.

By the way, is competence in grammar not a prerequisite to get into Mensa?

No limits on typos.  I'll probabably have explain the difference to to you.  I'll take it
S-L-O-W-L-Y.

[Keystone Phil]

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. I stick around when times are tough on me. You'll have to learn to do the same.

[Eraserhead]

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. I stick around when times are tough on me. You'll have to learn to do the same.

How could I leave and deprive you people of my amazing predictive powers?

[J. J.]

Dear god, Phil is going to get annoying if we get a PA poll where they are tied or something.

If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. I stick around when times are tough on me. You'll have to learn to do the same.

How could I leave and deprive you people of my amazing predictive powers?

So far, Phil has right.  And you see my reason for waiting.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Tuesday - September 16, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% (-1)
Obama: 47% (nc)

Investor confidence fell sharply overnight, but the instant reaction on Main Street has so far been more muted. Rasmussen Reports daily tracking of economic confidence shows that 65% of American consumers say the economy is getting worse. That’s down from 77% a few months ago, but up from 60% a week ago. Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say the economy is the top voting issue for Election 2008 while 23% name national security issues as the highest priority.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters say they trust McCain more than Obama on the economy while 45% trust Obama. These figures are updated weekly and have generally found voters evenly divided.

Today, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for New York.

[Kalimantan]

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters say they trust McCain more than Obama on the economy while 45% trust Obama. These figures are updated weekly and have generally found voters evenly divided.
[/i]

Convention bounce half-way gone, but if this figure is true we should see a swing back towards McCain this week.

[Brittain33]

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters say they trust McCain more than Obama on the economy while 45% trust Obama. These figures are updated weekly and have generally found voters evenly divided.
[/i]

Convention bounce half-way gone, but if this figure is true we should see a swing back towards McCain this week.

We'll have to see if Obama makes any headway against McCain on this through his latest ads and the "fundamentals are strong" issue. Right now I suppose this reflects a mix of "he'll raise my taxes" and leftover pro-drilling sentiment thoroughly leavened with basic partisanship.

[Democratic Hawk]

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters say they trust McCain more than Obama on the economy while 45% trust Obama. These figures are updated weekly and have generally found voters evenly divided.
[/i]

Convention bounce half-way gone, but if this figure is true we should see a swing back towards McCain this week.

We'll have to see if Obama makes any headway against McCain on this through his latest ads and the "fundamentals are strong" issue. Right now I suppose this reflects a mix of "he'll raise my taxes" and leftover pro-drilling sentiment thoroughly leavened with basic partisanship.

Of course, for many of those who trust McCain on the economy (and most Republicans and many Independents, who lean his/their way will), it might not be their number one issue, which means that Obama may actually lead among those voters for whom the economy is the top issue

Dave