Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Ronnie]

McCain getting a majority of the vote?

Yay!

If he has over 50 a week from now, that would mean something.

I cannot tell if we are expereincing the remainder of a bounce or if this is the new race.

Well, he has been hovering near or at the 49% mark, which practically means a majority.

[Zarn]

McCain getting a majority of the vote?

Yay!

If he has over 50 a week from now, that would mean something.

I cannot tell if we are expereincing the remainder of a bounce or if this is the new race.

Well, he has been hovering near or at the 49% mark, which practically means a majority.

If you remove the non-Dem,-Non Rep voting population.

Don't get me wrong, I do find it to be good news, but I'm still skeptical.

[J. J.]

It still could be a very pro McCain sample in the mix, but it certainly doesn't look like it.

[Zarn]

Yeah, Obama went up, too.

[Sbane]

McCain getting a majority of the vote?

Yay!

Yes but Obama went up as well. According to 538 Mccain's bounce should subside slowly so next week around this time would be a good time to check back on these polls. If Mccain is still leading, then this lead is for real. I except the race to become a tie or Obama+1 by the debates. We will see.

[J. J.]

McCain getting a majority of the vote?

Yay!

Yes but Obama went up as well. According to 538 Mccain's bounce should subside slowly so next week around this time would be a good time to check back on these polls. If Mccain is still leading, then this lead is for real. I except the race to become a tie or Obama+1 by the debates. We will see.

If it was a bad sample, McCain should really not have gone up at all.

[Keystone Phil]

Remember when most people were saying, "Oh, yeah, this lead will be gone by the weekend (yesterday and today)."...?

Now it's, "Well, if it is still around by next week then it is serious."

[Sbane]

Remember when most people were saying, "Oh, yeah, this lead will be gone by the weekend (yesterday and today)."...?

Now it's, "Well, if it is still around by next week then it is serious."

Well this is according to 538 and they wrote this article a while back. Again I am not sure if it will happen or if the race has basically stabilized. I tend to side with 538 only because nothing too earth shattering has occured after the RNC, so if mccain's bounce is still sticking around it shouldn't be surprising.

[J. J.]

Remember when most people were saying, "Oh, yeah, this lead will be gone by the weekend (yesterday and today)."...?

Now it's, "Well, if it is still around by next week then it is serious."

Well this is according to 538 and they wrote this article a while back. Again I am not sure if it will happen or if the race has basically stabilized. I tend to side with 538 only because nothing too earth shattering has occured after the RNC, so if mccain's bounce is still sticking around it shouldn't be surprising.

It could be a shift to McCain.  Look, I was (maybe the first) guy who said, "Maybe it's a bad sample."  If that really was the case, McCain should not have increase.

[Sbane]

Remember when most people were saying, "Oh, yeah, this lead will be gone by the weekend (yesterday and today)."...?

Now it's, "Well, if it is still around by next week then it is serious."

Well this is according to 538 and they wrote this article a while back. Again I am not sure if it will happen or if the race has basically stabilized. I tend to side with 538 only because nothing too earth shattering has occured after the RNC, so if mccain's bounce is still sticking around it shouldn't be surprising.

It could be a shift to McCain.  Look, I was (maybe the first) guy who said, "Maybe it's a bad sample."  If that really was the case, McCain should not have increase.

You mean the lead is real? Yeah that could definitely be the case but it could still be a residual bounce and it is possible we might see it for another week or two, considering what happens in the campaign. If nothing significant happens it might even extend to the debates. But I doubt that. If Mccain is still leading by the time of the debates he is probably leading for real.

[Keystone Phil]

If Mccain is still leading by the time of the debates he is probably leading for real.

"Probably leading for real?"

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Why doesn't Obama's bounces last this long?

[Sbane]

If Mccain is still leading by the time of the debates he is probably leading for real.

"Probably leading for real?"

Mccain most probably still has a bounce. When and if it will melt away is the question. No point arguing here phil, we will find out soon enough.

[J. J.]

Remember when most people were saying, "Oh, yeah, this lead will be gone by the weekend (yesterday and today)."...?

Now it's, "Well, if it is still around by next week then it is serious."

Well this is according to 538 and they wrote this article a while back. Again I am not sure if it will happen or if the race has basically stabilized. I tend to side with 538 only because nothing too earth shattering has occured after the RNC, so if mccain's bounce is still sticking around it shouldn't be surprising.

It could be a shift to McCain.  Look, I was (maybe the first) guy who said, "Maybe it's a bad sample."  If that really was the case, McCain should not have increase.

You mean the lead is real? Yeah that could definitely be the case but it could still be a residual bounce and it is possible we might see it for another week or two, considering what happens in the campaign. If nothing significant happens it might even extend to the debates. But I doubt that. If Mccain is still leading by the time of the debates he is probably leading for real.

The bounce should have evaporated by now; even it it hadn't it shouldn't be coming back.  There may be a "real" lead.  I said 9/10 is when we should start looking and that we should know something around 9/15.  I'll hold off until the morrow, but that should be Obama's best day on Gallup.

[Sbane]

Why doesn't Obama's bounces last this long?

Palin pick took out all the air from Obama's speech. Then the RNC happened. If you remember Obama did have some very favorable samples right before the RNC when some of that initial Palin bounce subsided. The reason why I think Mccain is still having a bounce is mainly because he has not led by any more than this. He has been holding steady at about +2-3 and it is interesting that 538 predicted this. And considering nothing much has happened since the RNC, it makes sense why the bounce might still be occuring as republican leaning independents/irregular voters are still excited about the party. And the thing about a bounce is that it does subside. Mccain has not really lost much ground since the RNC has he. It should subside in a week or two. If Mccain is still leading by debate time then it probably is not a bounce and the numbers are for real.

[Sbane]

Remember when most people were saying, "Oh, yeah, this lead will be gone by the weekend (yesterday and today)."...?

Now it's, "Well, if it is still around by next week then it is serious."

Well this is according to 538 and they wrote this article a while back. Again I am not sure if it will happen or if the race has basically stabilized. I tend to side with 538 only because nothing too earth shattering has occured after the RNC, so if mccain's bounce is still sticking around it shouldn't be surprising.

It could be a shift to McCain.  Look, I was (maybe the first) guy who said, "Maybe it's a bad sample."  If that really was the case, McCain should not have increase.

You mean the lead is real? Yeah that could definitely be the case but it could still be a residual bounce and it is possible we might see it for another week or two, considering what happens in the campaign. If nothing significant happens it might even extend to the debates. But I doubt that. If Mccain is still leading by the time of the debates he is probably leading for real.

The bounce should have evaporated by now; even it it hadn't it shouldn't be coming back.  There may be a "real" lead.  I said 9/10 is when we should start looking and that we should know something around 9/15.  I'll hold off until the morrow, but that should be Obama's best day on Gallup.

You and 538 differ by about a week. Mccain's bounce has to subside right. Correct me if I am wrong but Mccain has not really led by more than 3 points has he. He is just staying steady on his bounce high.

[J. J.]

Remember when most people were saying, "Oh, yeah, this lead will be gone by the weekend (yesterday and today)."...?

Now it's, "Well, if it is still around by next week then it is serious."

Well this is according to 538 and they wrote this article a while back. Again I am not sure if it will happen or if the race has basically stabilized. I tend to side with 538 only because nothing too earth shattering has occured after the RNC, so if mccain's bounce is still sticking around it shouldn't be surprising.

It could be a shift to McCain.  Look, I was (maybe the first) guy who said, "Maybe it's a bad sample."  If that really was the case, McCain should not have increase.

You mean the lead is real? Yeah that could definitely be the case but it could still be a residual bounce and it is possible we might see it for another week or two, considering what happens in the campaign. If nothing significant happens it might even extend to the debates. But I doubt that. If Mccain is still leading by the time of the debates he is probably leading for real.

The bounce should have evaporated by now; even it it hadn't it shouldn't be coming back.  There may be a "real" lead.  I said 9/10 is when we should start looking and that we should know something around 9/15.  I'll hold off until the morrow, but that should be Obama's best day on Gallup.

You and 538 differ by about a week. Mccain's bounce has to subside right. Correct me if I am wrong but Mccain has not really led by more than 3 points has he. He is just staying steady on his bounce high.

The race seems to have stabilized after the bounce. 

[Sbane]

Remember when most people were saying, "Oh, yeah, this lead will be gone by the weekend (yesterday and today)."...?

Now it's, "Well, if it is still around by next week then it is serious."

Well this is according to 538 and they wrote this article a while back. Again I am not sure if it will happen or if the race has basically stabilized. I tend to side with 538 only because nothing too earth shattering has occured after the RNC, so if mccain's bounce is still sticking around it shouldn't be surprising.

It could be a shift to McCain.  Look, I was (maybe the first) guy who said, "Maybe it's a bad sample."  If that really was the case, McCain should not have increase.

You mean the lead is real? Yeah that could definitely be the case but it could still be a residual bounce and it is possible we might see it for another week or two, considering what happens in the campaign. If nothing significant happens it might even extend to the debates. But I doubt that. If Mccain is still leading by the time of the debates he is probably leading for real.

The bounce should have evaporated by now; even it it hadn't it shouldn't be coming back.  There may be a "real" lead.  I said 9/10 is when we should start looking and that we should know something around 9/15.  I'll hold off until the morrow, but that should be Obama's best day on Gallup.

You and 538 differ by about a week. Mccain's bounce has to subside right. Correct me if I am wrong but Mccain has not really led by more than 3 points has he. He is just staying steady on his bounce high.

The race seems to have stabilized after the bounce. 

When was Mccain's high point? He seems to be there right now. What's interesting to me is how 538 seems to have predicted this. According to them we should watch next weekend for whether the bounce subsides.

[Ronnie]

I'm not so sure that it's so much of a bounce.  It may be simply a coming together of the Republican base.

[Keystone Phil]

If Mccain is still leading by the time of the debates he is probably leading for real.

"Probably leading for real?"

Mccain most probably still has a bounce. When and if it will melt away is the question. No point arguing here phil, we will find out soon enough.

We're not even talking about him having a bounce now. You said it he's ahead by the time of the debates then it is "probably" a real lead. How is it not definitely a real lead if he's still up a week from now?

[J. J.]

When was Mccain's high point? He seems to be there right now. What's interesting to me is how 538 seems to have predicted this. According to them we should watch next weekend for whether the bounce subsides.

Probably about +7, in Gallup, but the Obama weekend bounce hit some of it.

[Sbane]

If Mccain is still leading by the time of the debates he is probably leading for real.

"Probably leading for real?"

Mccain most probably still has a bounce. When and if it will melt away is the question. No point arguing here phil, we will find out soon enough.

We're not even talking about him having a bounce now. You said it he's ahead by the time of the debates then it is "probably" a real lead. How is it not definitely a real lead if he's still up a week from now?

Yeah check back next weekend/the week after that. Those numbers should be solid right before the debate. Then the debate basically decides the election.

[??????????]

If McCain has this type of lead at the beginning of October will the Libs still be saying "bounce"?

[Brittain33]

McCain 49% (-1)
Obama 47% (nc)

Rasmussen agrees with Gallup again, and all is right with the world. (Except for the McCain lead.)

[Zarn]

We'd have to wait for Gallup's new numbers.