Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Lief 🗽]

Good. Things should start settling down now.

[Brittain33]

What does that make Sunday's sample?

[Verily]

What does that make Sunday's sample?

Thursday was estimated at O+3.8, so this is probably something like O+2 today (with a tie on Friday and M+4 or so yesterday).

[Democratic Hawk]

Can someone remind me which presidential nominee has been aligned with the very personification of ineptitude (Mr 34%, according to Rasmussen) 90% of the time in the Senate? Is contributing to the mess really worthy of a 22% net approval rating?

Four more years of America's international standing in the gutter; four more years of relentless attacks on middle class living standards; four more years of blue collar jobs being outsourced. Ugh

I'm going to wipe the floor with McCain if he wins - and things aren't a hell of a lot better in four years time. And that's a promise

Dave

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Can someone remind me which presidential nominee has been aligned with the very personification of ineptitude (Mr 34%, according to Rasmussen) 90% of the time in the Senate? Is contributing to the mess really worthy of a 22% net approval rating?

Four more years of America's international standing in the gutter; four more years of relentless attacks on middle class living standards; four more years of blue collar jobs being outsourced. Ugh

I'm going to wipe the floor with McCain if he wins - and things aren't a hell of a lot better in four years time. And that's a promise

Dave

look at the bright side...in four years, Palin's daughter Willow will be 18.

[Ronnie]

[Democratic Hawk]

Why the ? Staid ol' decrepit (and that's just his failed Republican policies), Johnny Mac is ahead. You should should be for him

Dave

[Rowan]

Even Scott Rasmussen himself thinks his party ID weighting may be underestimating McCains lead:

"For a variety of reasons, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is less volatile than some other polls and always shows a somewhat smaller convention bounce than reported by others. This is primarily because we weight our results by party identification (see methodology). Looking at the data before adjusting for partisan identification, the Republican convention appears to have created a larger surge in party identification than the Democratic convention the week before. If this lasts, it could have a significant impact on Election 2008."

[Eraserhead]

Hmm... I was expecting worse results than this today.

Impressive favorable numbers for McCain. I can't see those lasting too long though.

[Person Man]

I don't think McCain has anything to do with his favorability. People think that Palin is the messiah in ways that Obama could only dream....this sorceress is powerful.

[Gustaf]

Can someone remind me which presidential nominee has been aligned with the very personification of ineptitude (Mr 34%, according to Rasmussen) 90% of the time in the Senate? Is contributing to the mess really worthy of a 22% net approval rating?

Four more years of America's international standing in the gutter; four more years of relentless attacks on middle class living standards; four more years of blue collar jobs being outsourced. Ugh

I'm going to wipe the floor with McCain if he wins - and things aren't a hell of a lot better in four years time. And that's a promise

Dave

What are you gonna do? Torture him?

[Eraserhead]

Ras says that the state polling is coming back tonight too.

Frankly, I wish that he'd wait another week for McCain's bump to die.

[Alcon]

Even Scott Rasmussen himself thinks his party ID weighting may be underestimating McCains lead:

"For a variety of reasons, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is less volatile than some other polls and always shows a somewhat smaller convention bounce than reported by others. This is primarily because we weight our results by party identification (see methodology). Looking at the data before adjusting for partisan identification, the Republican convention appears to have created a larger surge in party identification than the Democratic convention the week before. If this lasts, it could have a significant impact on Election 2008."

That's, of course, assuming that the party ID change sticks, which is not necessarily a valid assumption at all.

It's hard to say, but convention boosts are generally not boosts, but bubbles.  A long-term change in party ID would be disastrous for Obama, though.  It's hard to say how likely it is.

[Sam Spade]

Even Scott Rasmussen himself thinks his party ID weighting may be underestimating McCains lead:

"For a variety of reasons, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is less volatile than some other polls and always shows a somewhat smaller convention bounce than reported by others. This is primarily because we weight our results by party identification (see methodology). Looking at the data before adjusting for partisan identification, the Republican convention appears to have created a larger surge in party identification than the Democratic convention the week before. If this lasts, it could have a significant impact on Election 2008."

That's, of course, assuming that the party ID change sticks, which is not necessarily a valid assumption at all.

It's hard to say, but convention boosts are generally not boosts, but bubbles.  A long-term change in party ID would be disastrous for Obama, though.  It's hard to say how likely it is.

If this Republican gain in enthusiasm continues to the election in some form or another, there will be a tightening in party ID.  I can't say how much it would be, and it won't probably be as extreme as it looks post-convention, but it would be there and it would likely be somewhat significant.

Of course, I did predict a tightening in party ID, just because of the natural process of Republicans waking up to an election at this time of year.  But it might be more than I expected.

[Eraserhead]

Is anyone else surprised that there wasn't a little more movement today or is it just me?

[Alcon]

Yea, base consolidation is kind of inevitable, and with a close Presidential election, partisan affiliation stigma is removed a little.  I'm talking a change beyond that, closer to 2004 numbers, though.  That'd be pretty disasterous for the Dems.  I'm skeptical, but it's looking slightly more likely.

[Person Man]

Is anyone else surprised that there wasn't a little more movement today or is it just me?

[Brittain33]

If this Republican gain in enthusiasm continues to the election in some form or another, there will be a tightening in party ID.  I can't say how much it would be, and it won't probably be as extreme as it looks post-convention, but it would be there and it would likely be somewhat significant.

Agreed. If Rasmussen's sample has locked in pre-Palin shifts of Republicans to the Independent category, it's going to be slow to reflect any flow back, should it have happened. I wonder if he's scheduled to realign his partisan breakdowns before the election should this hold for more than the immediate post-convention bounce.

[Alcon]

If this Republican gain in enthusiasm continues to the election in some form or another, there will be a tightening in party ID.  I can't say how much it would be, and it won't probably be as extreme as it looks post-convention, but it would be there and it would likely be somewhat significant.

Agreed. If Rasmussen's sample has locked in pre-Palin shifts of Republicans to the Independent category, it's going to be slow to reflect any flow back, should it have happened. I wonder if he's scheduled to realign his partisan breakdowns before the election should this hold for more than the immediate post-convention bounce.

Doesn't he do it (at least) monthly?

[Sam Spade]

Yea, base consolidation is kind of inevitable, and with a close Presidential election, partisan affiliation stigma is removed a little.  I'm talking a change beyond that, closer to 2004 numbers, though.  That'd be pretty disasterous for the Dems.  I'm skeptical, but it's looking slightly more likely.

I still think it's going to be more like 39D-35R-26I (or at least that's what my prediction would have pre-Palin), but I am starting to doubt that a little.  Obviously, I don't think it moves anywhere beyond 2004 (37R-37D-26I) and it's highly unlikely it could reach that exact number either, but added enthusiasm could certainly reduce the margin closer than that four-point difference I'm referring to.  After all, in Rasmussen last month, the difference was only 5.7%.

We'll see.  Lots of time left.

[Sam Spade]

If this Republican gain in enthusiasm continues to the election in some form or another, there will be a tightening in party ID.  I can't say how much it would be, and it won't probably be as extreme as it looks post-convention, but it would be there and it would likely be somewhat significant.

Agreed. If Rasmussen's sample has locked in pre-Palin shifts of Republicans to the Independent category, it's going to be slow to reflect any flow back, should it have happened. I wonder if he's scheduled to realign his partisan breakdowns before the election should this hold for more than the immediate post-convention bounce.

Doesn't he do it (at least) monthly?

Ya.  Last month (August) was:

Democrat 38.9%
Republican 33.2%
Indy/Other 28.0%

So his weight this month (average of three months, June through August) is:
Democrat 39.7%
Republican 32.1%
Indy/Other 28.2%

[Rowan]

Is anyone else surprised that there wasn't a little more movement today or is it just me?

No, I'm not surprised. With the hard weight of D +7.6 that RAS is using, it will be extremely hard for McCain to build any kind of lead in a RAS poll simply because of the party breakdown of the poll.

[Vsanto5]

so conservative democrats are saying that they will vote or answer for McCain for the moment?

[Gustaf]

so conservative democrats are saying that they will vote or answer for McCain for the moment?

The point is rather that they may identify themselves as independents instead of Democrats at the moment, while conservative independents may to a greater extent be identifying as Republicans now.

[Reds4]

Seems a little weird that it's all tied up with the favorables being so different. Interesting.