Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Brittain33]

Biden was not that unknown. 

I didn't say he was unknown. He has some low name recognition as a long-running Democratic senator who is well known in media circles but doesn't register with ordinary people. My point was, the VP has value for both the initial statement (think a hypothetical Colin Powell, John Edwards, Jack Kemp) and how they perform down the road (Al Gore, Dick Cheney in the debates, Lyndon Johnson).

Biden is potentially much stronger than pretty much any other possibility in the debates, in his convention speech, and out on the stump. Is it necessarily the case? No. However, while you're welcome to start celebrating now, it's not "obvious" that Biden was a dud pick based on his failure to move tracking polls right away. He was chosen for his abilities, not his name wow-factor. When people say that Biden will help the ticket connect with working-class voters (a dubious claim, but let's go with it) it wasn't because working-class people have posters of Biden on their walls and were thrilled when he was picked. He needs to be introduced to them, and then we'll see if he resonates or makes a difference.

Of course McCain taking the lead in tracking polls is bad news for Obama. You and I disagree about what that means, and how permanent that is.

[Brittain33]

The only conventions I recall with no bounce after the convention were McGovern 1972 and Bush 1992, though I may be forgetting something.  Whatever. 

I think Kerry failed to get a bounce.

[Sam Spade]

The only conventions I recall with no bounce after the convention were McGovern 1972 and Bush 1992, though I may be forgetting something.  Whatever. 

I think Kerry failed to get a bounce.

You're technically right, though in reality that bounce appeared *after* the Gallup poll was done (which is the historical measure).  And then it got killed completely by Swift Boats.

After re-reading Gallup, I see the Bush 41 in 1992 got 5%.  So count me wrong there too.

[Brittain33]

You're technically right, though in reality that bounce appeared *after* the Gallup poll was done (which is the historical measure).  And then it got killed completely by Swift Boats.

After re-reading Gallup, I see the Bush 41 in 1992 got 5%.  So count me wrong there too.

Clealy you're going off of the numbers while I'm going off of memories of freak-outs on Daily Kos.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Like I have said, wait until this week end, Obama numbers will be shocking different.

[Sam Spade]

You're technically right, though in reality that bounce appeared *after* the Gallup poll was done (which is the historical measure).  And then it got killed completely by Swift Boats.

After re-reading Gallup, I see the Bush 41 in 1992 got 5%.  So count me wrong there too.

Clealy you're going off of the numbers while I'm going off of memories of freak-outs on Daily Kos.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109702/Conventions-Typically-Result-FivePoint-Bounce.aspx

I do have a *scary* ability to remember numbers very well, but sometimes I switch them around.  That's why I remember the post-Gallup bounce (because Gallup polled too quickly). 

For example, I still remember every the sequences and scores of every playoff game that my hometown Rockets had when winning the championships in 1994 and 1995.

[Wiz in Wis]

Biden was not that unknown. 

I didn't say he was unknown. He has some low name recognition as a long-running Democratic senator who is well known in media circles but doesn't register with ordinary people. My point was, the VP has value for both the initial statement (think a hypothetical Colin Powell, John Edwards, Jack Kemp) and how they perform down the road (Al Gore, Dick Cheney in the debates, Lyndon Johnson).

Biden is potentially much stronger than pretty much any other possibility in the debates, in his convention speech, and out on the stump. Is it necessarily the case? No. However, while you're welcome to start celebrating now, it's not "obvious" that Biden was a dud pick based on his failure to move tracking polls right away. He was chosen for his abilities, not his name wow-factor. When people say that Biden will help the ticket connect with working-class voters (a dubious claim, but let's go with it) it wasn't because working-class people have posters of Biden on their walls and were thrilled when he was picked. He needs to be introduced to them, and then we'll see if he resonates or makes a difference.

Of course McCain taking the lead in tracking polls is bad news for Obama. You and I disagree about what that means, and how permanent that is.

Two things...

One, the initial rollout of Biden was on a Saturday... not many people were watching, and those that were included a lot of people upset that Hillary! didn't get the nod. I think a shorterm backlash should have been forseen, but then, Biden wasn't brought in to win the thing overnight. His role is tonights speech, on the stump, and in the debate.

Second, While the tracking polls have turned away from Obama, where does McCain grow? How many democrats are going to watch the speeches by Biden and Obama and refuse to come home? That number, I suspect, is going to be small, and is inflated by Hillary!'s moment in the spotlight now.

Remember, the post endorsement bounce from the end of the primaries was strongest almost two weeks after Hillary conceeded.

[J. J.]

They weren't taking polls during day two of the convention in 1992, JJ.  And technically, this poll only includes day one of the convention, not day two.

The only conventions I recall with no bounce after the convention were McGovern 1972 and Bush 1992, though I may be forgetting something.  Whatever.  

I note that part of the reason why McGovern got no bounce was because his nominating speech occurred at 2AM.  Much like Obama's VP announcement.

I'm even referring to going into the convention.  One poll, I'd say it had to be a bad sample size, but we're seeing with both Gallup and the 'bots.

I'm expecting a bounce, still.  I was also expecting some improvement in Obama's numbers at this point.  Not a lot, but at least slightly better numbers. 

[Umengus]

We can say:

1) no VP bounce for Obama but for Mc Cain (who have predicted that ?)

2) we are waiting for convention bounce.

Problem for Obama is that the VP will stay to the end, the hypotetical bounce convention will be out in one week.

[Josh/Devilman88]

We can say:

1) no VP bounce for Obama but for Mc Cain (who have predicted that ?)

2) we are waiting for convention bounce.

Problem for Obama is that the VP will stay to the end, the hypotetical bounce convention will be out in one week.

We don't know if McCain wil get a VP bounce, He hasn't picked his yet.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama can save it, but the Stadium Speech is already being derided for the setting.  It may work out, but the signs so far are NOT favorable for Obama.

Isn't what a man says more than important than where he says it?

Dave

[Umengus]

We can say:

1) no VP bounce for Obama but for Mc Cain (who have predicted that ?)

2) we are waiting for convention bounce.

Problem for Obama is that the VP will stay to the end, the hypotetical bounce convention will be out in one week.

We don't know if McCain wil get a VP bounce, He hasn't picked his yet.

Biden VP was a bounce for Mc Cain. But Obama is lucky, convention is there.

[Josh/Devilman88]

We can say:

1) no VP bounce for Obama but for Mc Cain (who have predicted that ?)

2) we are waiting for convention bounce.

Problem for Obama is that the VP will stay to the end, the hypotetical bounce convention will be out in one week.

We don't know if McCain wil get a VP bounce, He hasn't picked his yet.

Biden VP was a bounce for Mc Cain. But Obama is lucky, convention is there.

Like I have said before that McCain bounces isn't real. It is them crazy Hillary people who get upset when their Hillary wasn't on the ticket. Gallup already show that bounce for McCain gone, Rasy will be gone soon too.

[minionofmidas]

Well, this certainly isn't good.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the 2 Clinton speeches will be the test - in spite of the bitching and whining from some Obama-ites - their blessing mattered a lot.

As has been said before - Obama reached his best peak vs McCain when Hillary left the race.

Over the past two months a lot of those have either gone to McCain or into the undecided.

He needs those people badly and he NEEDS the Clintons to win them over.

I think there is a slight movement away from McCain in the aftermath of Hillary's speech - and hopefully Bill's (much more effusive praise) will draw more people over to Obama. The strategy initially looks stupid.  But actually looks masterful - give Bill and Hillary prime-time speaking slots - soften up those voters and try to cast Obama and NOT Hillary as the heir to Clinton's legacy (in the eyes of Clintonistas) - then lay in Biden and hopefully let Obama be the suckerpunch tomorrow.

I think the bounce will be relatively small - max 5% - since I think there are very few without quite firm views of Obama and McCain. 

[J. J.]

Obama can save it, but the Stadium Speech is already being derided for the setting.  It may work out, but the signs so far are NOT favorable for Obama.

Isn't what a man says more than important than where he says it?

Dave

Staging helps a great deal. 

Mike Deaver said, of his work with Reagan, "I just put him in good lighting."  We can even go back to the Nixon Kennedy debates.  Nixon arguably "won," but JFK's visuals were so much better that it moved voters.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Thursday - August 28, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1 )
McCain: 44% / 47%, including leaners (NC, NC)

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable  (-1)
Obama: 54% favorable  (+1)

Reviewing recent single-night polling data—rather than the three-day average--shows that Obama lost ground immediately following the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. That had little or nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with the fact that the running mate was not named Hillary Clinton. The impact of that choice was reflected in the polling results released Tuesday and Wednesday showing modest gains for McCain.

However, events are moving rapidly this season and the impact of the convention is starting to replace the impact of the Vice Presidential announcement. New polling data shows that 74% of Democrats say their convention has unified the party and 84% believe Hillary Clinton’s speech will help Obama in the fall.

Obama’s poll numbers have improved over the past couple of nights and today’s update shows a tie race because it includes a mix of both recent trends. But it seems likely that Obama will end the convention with a modest lead over McCain. Then, of course, it will be time for the Republican Vice Presidential pick and, next week, the GOP convention.

Last week, before the conventions began, Obama led by one to three points each day.

[Tender Branson]

How can Rasmussen say: "The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama." when he led by 3% before the convention ?

It would be a bounce if he led by 5. Or was last night in particular very favorable for Obama to make this suggestion ?

[CPT MikeyMike]

I guess you could argue that he Tuesday's poll was Obama's lowest and he had gone up during the last two days. Yesterday's and today's poll, I believe, are as a result of the convention.

Like any poll, you can spin it anyway you want to!

[Sam Spade]

Seems about right.  I suspect what Rasmussen is saying is if it was 1-3 before the convention, you can expect it to be 3-5 after the convention (or at least that's what sounds "modest" to me).  But then again, you can't predict night to night new numbers, so all this is really guessing.

[J. J.]

The numbers should be going up, and they are.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Friday - August 29, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (+1, +2)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (-1, -2)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable  (+2)
McCain: 53% favorable  (-2)

This is Obama’s biggest lead since late July, when he opened up a six-point advantage following his summer speech in Berlin. A separate story looks at the Obama bounce. Other data released this morning shows that Democrats are happier now than before the convention with the choice of Joe Biden as Obama’s running mate. Overall, 74% of Democrats say their convention has unified the party.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Nice.. Tomorrow will be even better.

[J. J.]

Up and then down.

[Wiz in Wis]

Up and then down.

Likely, I will admit. However, Obama is more likely to add 6+ points to his margin than McCain is to earn it all back...

Especially if Gustav is splitscreening half the convention