Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Brittain33]

Seems a little weird that it's all tied up with the favorables being so different. Interesting.

It's a Chafee effect, I think. Some Democrats approve of McCain but will not vote Republican this year.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Tuesday - September 9, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 46% / 48%, including leaners (-1, nc)
Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 59% favorable, 40% unfavorable (-1, +2)
Obama: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

One week ago today, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Now, for the first time in Election 2008, Rasmussen Markets data shows the race to be a toss-up.

Tonight, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new polling will be released for Montana. Additional state polls will be released each weeknight at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

[© tweed]

Seems a little weird that it's all tied up with the favorables being so different. Interesting.

4% isn't a very big gap

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

strange that McCain polled better over the weekend...any thoughts to explain this?

[© tweed]

strange that McCain polled better over the weekend...any thoughts to explain this?

"bounce" is subsiding

or statistical noise, either way

[KeyKeeper]

I see this race staying tied or close to tied until the first debate.

[Reds4]

I guess one might assume that Obama may well have had the lead in last night's individual polling numbers?

[Verily]

I guess one might assume that Obama may well have had the lead in last night's individual polling numbers?

Yes. if the trends are any indication, the numbers for the last three nights were M+5, O+2, O+3 (four days ago was a tie), or something along those lines. So expect Obama to be in the lead by a point or two tomorrow (but no guarantees, they do sometimes have odd one-day movements).

[Sam Spade]

Obama will likely be up by around a point or two tomorrow, as a good McCain sample comes off tomorrow.

The trick to figuring out whether this is a "bounce" or actual movement, once again, is probably going to be by figuring out whether any major shift in party ID has occurred that Rasmussen is weighting away.  

My best advice for figuring out whether this lasts beyond the next week or so is simply to compare Gallup to Rasmussen.  If Gallup continues to poll 2-4 points ahead for McCain after about a week or so, then this may be some type of actual movement in the party ID.  If they move back to tracking each other, like they did pre-DNC, then it isn't.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I guess one might assume that Obama may well have had the lead in last night's individual polling numbers?

Yes. if the trends are any indication, the numbers for the last three nights were M+5, O+2, O+3 (four days ago was a tie), or something along those lines. So expect Obama to be in the lead by a point or two tomorrow (but no guarantees, they do sometimes have odd one-day movements).

an eight point swing for Obama from Sat to Mon (which doesn't make sense at all) means we are putting way too much value into the final result and instead need to consider this race tied if either candidate is within 3-4 points of each other.

[muon2]

Seems a little weird that it's all tied up with the favorables being so different. Interesting.

Obama will likely be up by around a point or two tomorrow, as a good McCain sample comes off tomorrow.

The trick to figuring out whether this is a "bounce" or actual movement, once again, is probably going to be by figuring out whether any major shift in party ID has occurred that Rasmussen is weighting away.  

My best advice for figuring out whether this lasts beyond the next week or so is simply to compare Gallup to Rasmussen.  If Gallup continues to poll 2-4 points ahead for McCain after about a week or so, then this may be some type of actual movement in the party ID.  If they move back to tracking each other, like they did pre-DNC, then it isn't.

The difference between favorability ratings and voting preference may well be an indicator of the party ID shift. I don't know the extent if any that party ID is used in the calculating the favorables, but I presume that there is some difference. If the weight is less hard, then I would expect movement in the favorable number better reflects shifts in the raw sample.

I'm surprised that Rasmussen only recalibrates the weighting monthly at this time. I would think that a semimonthly adjustment would make more sense after Labor Day.

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday - September 10, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 46% / 47%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable, 42% unfavorable (-2, +2)
Obama: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Tonight, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new polling will be released for New Mexico, North Dakota, and Alaska. Polling for Senate and Governors’ races will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.

A Washington Post poll generated comment yesterday by noting that White Women favor McCain. Rasmussen Reports polling has consistently shown a similar result, but it is important to note that there is nothing unusual about this finding. Four years ago, President Bush managed to defeat Senator John Kerry 55% to 44% among white women. Today’s tracking poll data shows McCain leading 51% to 44% among this group. Among all women, Obama leads by eight. Among men, McCain leads by eight.

[J. J.]

Bounce is leaving, but even with the shift, the favorable/unfavorable is stronger toward McCain.

[ChrisFromNJ]

I knew the poll wasn't favoring McCain when I didn't see it on the front page and Scott Ramussen wasn't saying on his website "OMG BREAKING POLL".

[Sbane]

So the race is basically tied still right? I do believe a good Mccain sample just left today so the slight uptick for Obama should be expected.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Bounce is leaving, but even with the shift, the favorable/unfavorable is stronger toward McCain.

To give you an idea of why that is, I would answer favorable to McCain.  I like him and I think most Americans do, I just don't like his brand of politics.

[Sam Spade]

So the race is basically tied still right? I do believe a good Mccain sample just left today so the slight uptick for Obama should be expected.

Ya, the McCain sample leaving was about +4 to +5.  So the shift should have actually a bit more.  For example, if Verily is right and the past two days were O+2 and O+3, it's likely that today's sample was M+3.

[JohnCA246]

Well that was fast.

[ChrisFromNJ]

I see this race staying tied or close to tied until the first debate.

We keep waiting for that event that will decide this race. My guess is that his never happens. The race will be up in the air until election day.

[Ronnie]

It's statistical noise.

[KeyKeeper]

I see this race staying tied or close to tied until the first debate.

We keep waiting for that event that will decide this race. My guess is that his never happens. The race will be up in the air until election day.

I see one of them doing very well, while the other bombs out in the debate. Once that happens the one that does good will get a huge bump in the polls.

[Rowan]

McCain will never be able to sustain a lead in this poll because of the hard party ID weighting that RAS uses. It is mathematically impossible. When you have that many Dems in the sample, of course it will make Obama's numbers look good.

[Sbane]

McCain will never be able to sustain a lead in this poll because of the hard party ID weighting that RAS uses. It is mathematically impossible. When you have that many Dems in the sample, of course it will make Obama's numbers look good.

And remember Obama's bounce was understated by Rasmussen as well. It's not some huge left wing conspiracy.

[Rowan]

McCain will never be able to sustain a lead in this poll because of the hard party ID weighting that RAS uses. It is mathematically impossible. When you have that many Dems in the sample, of course it will make Obama's numbers look good.

And remember Obama's bounce was understated by Rasmussen as well. It's not some huge left wing conspiracy.

Not saying it's a conspiracy. I'm just saying his party ID numbers are wrong.

[Sbane]

McCain will never be able to sustain a lead in this poll because of the hard party ID weighting that RAS uses. It is mathematically impossible. When you have that many Dems in the sample, of course it will make Obama's numbers look good.

And remember Obama's bounce was understated by Rasmussen as well. It's not some huge left wing conspiracy.

Not saying it's a conspiracy. I'm just saying his party ID numbers are wrong.

Give it some time. I expect gallup to start swinging a bit towards Obama now. If it doesn't in another week or so then yes there has been change in party ID and I am sure Rasmussen will adjust it accordingly.