Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

Numbers-wise, a good McCain sample dropping off and an excellent day for Obama.  According to my math, probably somewhere between Obama +7 or +8.  Particularly good day among Indys for Obama, fwiw.

I'll play John Zogby for a moment and say that I think the race may have broken out.  Of course, it's Zogby.

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 52%
McCain 45%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	51.66%	(50.53%	50.19%	49.55%	50.73%)
McCain	44.83%	(45.47%	45.64%	45.80%	44.63%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday		Sunday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	46.17	41.19	44.27	40.98	44.22	41.09	43.41	40.65	45.40	39.49
Likely	4.55	2.47	5.16	3.15	4.82	3.21	4.88	3.61	4.40	3.46
Lean	0.94	1.17	1.10	1.34	1.15	1.35	1.17	1.54	0.93	1.68

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday		Sunday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	86.27	10.90	86.01	11.08	85.49	10.83	86.42	10.56	86.44	10.46
Republican	11.85	86.53	11.90	86.26	11.71	87.21	11.34	87.15	12.38	86.68
Independent	50.51	43.01	47.07	45.11	46.58	45.23	43.93	45.52	47.22	42.15

[exopolitician]

[Kalimantan]

10/23/08

Obama   52%
McCain    45%

Biggest Obama lead in two weeks.

As I've pointed out several times, McCain has been 44-46 and Obama 50-52 every single day for over a month now. Its a stable race.

[J. J.]

10/23/08

Obama   52%
McCain    45%

Biggest Obama lead in two weeks.

As I've pointed out several times, McCain has been 44-46 and Obama 50-52 every single day for over a month now. Its a stable race.

I'm looking at movement across polls.  I'm not seeing it, at least with the lesser polls.  Maybe Gallup or TIPP will show something.

[Democratic Hawk]

10/23/08

Obama   52%
McCain    45%

Biggest Obama lead in two weeks.

Obama also has his highest net favorability rating for two weeks (+15) [57% favorable; 42%unfavorable]

[Eraserhead]

Let's just hold the election this Tuesday.

[Tender Branson]

Rowan, do you already know what numbers Rasmussen will show for GA, MN and LA ?

[Sam Spade]

Rowan, do you already know what numbers Rasmussen will show for GA, MN and LA ?

State polling update usually occurs around 3 PM.  I'd be happy to play my game again, but Rowan may post it anyways...

[Alcon]

Polling games give me creepy S&M vibes

Out with the polls!!!

[Tender Branson]

Polling games give me creepy S&M vibes

Out with the polls!!!

True. I can't wait until 11pm, when the polls are relased here in Europe ...

So post them at 9pm please.

[Sam Spade]

Polling games give me creepy S&M vibes

Out with the polls!!!

You're in Seattle (or the suburbs, yes).  Surprised you don't like it. 

[Tender Branson]

State polling update usually occurs around 3 PM.

And ?

[Sam Spade]

State polling update usually occurs around 3 PM.

And ?

Check your PM.

[Tender Branson]

State polling update usually occurs around 3 PM.

And ?

Check your PM.

Thx

I didn't know they were releasing WA as well ... Interesting numbers btw.

[Brittain33]

When are these state polls released to the general public?

[Verily]

When are these state polls released to the general public?

5 p.m. usually.

[Dan the Roman]

Unchanged

Obama 52
McCain 45

[Sam Spade]

Another excellent sample for Obama to replace the strong one that fell off.  If another sample such as this jumps on tomorrow, Obama's lead could jump by a point, maybe two.

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 52%
McCain 45%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	51.80%	(51.66%	50.53%	50.19%	49.55%)
McCain	44.80%	(44.83%	45.47%	45.64%	45.80%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Friday		Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	46.50	40.62	46.17	41.19	44.27	40.98	44.22	41.09	43.41	40.65
Likely	4.31	2.84	4.55	2.47	5.16	3.15	4.82	3.21	4.88	3.61
Lean	0.99	1.34	0.94	1.17	1.10	1.34	1.15	1.35	1.17	1.54

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Friday		Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	87.76	10.09	86.27	10.90	86.01	11.08	85.49	10.83	86.42	10.56
Republican	12.39	85.72	11.85	86.53	11.90	86.26	11.71	87.21	11.34	87.15
Independent	48.74	44.55	50.51	43.01	47.07	45.11	46.58	45.23	43.93	45.52

[Democratic Hawk]

Unchanged

Obama 52
McCain 45

Obama leads by sixteen points among women, including a three-point advantage among white women. McCain leads by three among men. Obama now is supported by twelve percent (12%) of Republicans while McCain gets the vote from 10% of Democrats.

Thirty-six percent (36%) say they have already voted or plan to vote early this year. That figure includes 37% of Obama supporters and 35% of those for McCain. An amazing 49% of African-American voters say they will be voting early. Voters not affiliated with either major party are far less likely to vote early than partisans.

Today’s results mark the 29th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% or above 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range every day and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama while 53% say the same about John McCain. Those figures include 41% with a Very Favorable opinion of Obama and 26% who are that enthusiastic about McCain. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama. Just 54% of Republicans have a Very Favorable opinion of McCain.

Forty-six percent (46%) of all voters say they are certain to vote for Obama and will not change their mind before Election Day. Forty-one percent (41%) are equally certain of their support for McCain. Two percent (2%) are committed to voting for a third party candidate.

McCain leads by just two percentage points among Investors while trailing badly among those who do not invest. Investors are generally more supportive of Republican candidates.

[Democratic Hawk]

State polls coming up later today:

Noon Eastern: North Carolina President
3 p.m. Eastern: North Carolina Governor
5 p.m. Eastern: New Hampshire President
5 p.m. Eastern: Iowa President

[TheGlobalizer]

NH should be interesting, but I don't think I'll like the numbers.

[Reds4]

Sam,

Is the sample that is dropping off tommorrow a stronger one for McCain relative to the overall lead of 7 in your opinion? Looks like last night may have been Obama by 7 or 8 maybe?

Another excellent sample for Obama to replace the strong one that fell off.  If another sample such as this jumps on tomorrow, Obama's lead could jump by a point, maybe two.

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 52%
McCain 45%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	51.80%	(51.66%	50.53%	50.19%	49.55%)
McCain	44.80%	(44.83%	45.47%	45.64%	45.80%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Friday		Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	46.50	40.62	46.17	41.19	44.27	40.98	44.22	41.09	43.41	40.65
Likely	4.31	2.84	4.55	2.47	5.16	3.15	4.82	3.21	4.88	3.61
Lean	0.99	1.34	0.94	1.17	1.10	1.34	1.15	1.35	1.17	1.54

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Friday		Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	87.76	10.09	86.27	10.90	86.01	11.08	85.49	10.83	86.42	10.56
Republican	12.39	85.72	11.85	86.53	11.90	86.26	11.71	87.21	11.34	87.15
Independent	48.74	44.55	50.51	43.01	47.07	45.11	46.58	45.23	43.93	45.52

[minionofmidas]

4 gains in a row by now.

[Iosif]

Saturday 25th October
Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 44 (-1)

This equals Obama's biggest lead in Rasmussen.

[Speed of Sound]

5 "gains" in a row now. If Gallup comes out with the same, I will start to calm a small percentage of my nerves.