Wisconsin Megathread

[TJ in Oregon]

I made a religion map for Wisconsin and I was thinking this thread might be the best place for it (even though it is a demographic map rather than an election one).

The color code is the same as the Ohio map I made ages ago, the brighter the shade, the more dominant the group
Blue = Mainline Protestant
Red = Evangelical Protestant
Green = Catholic
Black = Other

Determinations follow the ARDA Database standards, except that I counted Traditionally Black Churches as mainline (which is pretty much irrelevant in Wisconsin anyway).



For the most part, this hints at the political divisions between eastern and western Wisconsin with the east having more green/red/brown and the west having more blue/teal/purple, and it seems the former mix of groups tends to be more conservative than the latter. To a large extent the red/blue split simply highlights the dominance of the ELCA (blue) and LCMS and WELS (red) in different parts of the state.

[TJ in Oregon]

Southwestern Wisconsin is something of a strange animal. It votes reliably for Democrats on the national level, but can swing wildly in any direction downballot. I have the impression (could be wrong) that SW Wisconsin is the type of place where walking door to door and getting to know the voters makes a huge difference since they tend to vote for the person more than the party. It strikes me as a place where personal relationships are very important. Schultz's retirement is a huge hit for the GOP in the State Senate but with the right candidate (and I have no idea who that might be) we still have a reasonably good chance of keeping the seat.

[TJ in Oregon]

Ellis has decided not to run for re-election. Wow that was quick. I would say Ellis has some decency for deciding to retire, but he had the audacity to say this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

lol

[TJ in Oregon]

If it comes down to Leibham and Grothman, I'd probably call Leibham the frontrunner.

I have trouble seeing the Democrats pick up Leibham's seat unless there is some sort of scandal. Even if the Democrats have a popular mayor, what sort of margins would they have to run up around Manitowoc to cancel out Sheboygan County? Leibham won Sheboygan County by about 15,000 votes last time around. Last time Manitowoc County only had about 20,000 voters.

[TJ in Oregon]

Yes, Hulsey is ... special

[TJ in Oregon]

Scene Newspaper? Seriously?!

[TJ in Oregon]

They still have "protesters" in the capitol.  I'm told they sing socialist songs in the rotunda everyday around noon...  in a manner that scares (and scars) school children on tours.   

WHO WILL THINK OF THE CHILDREN!!!

Oh yes the Solidarity Sing Along. To be honest it's kind of amusing at this point; half the time you can't even tell what they're protesting anymore. Truthfully that's not uncommon in this town in general. You tune it out after a while. Such is life.

I don't think the Solidarity Sing Along is particularly helpful to the Democrats' cause. I think they look ridiculous. But they have a right to look ridiculous.

[TJ in Oregon]

They still have "protesters" in the capitol.  I'm told they sing socialist songs in the rotunda everyday around noon...  in a manner that scares (and scars) school children on tours.   

'Scars'? You can't be serious.

Madison protests can be a very scarring experience

Anecdotally, I think of anything I've seen here the thing that bothered me the most was when there was a weed protest in on the street in front of my church and some people in the protest were smoking pot on the church steps. I know that isn't some kind of traumatizing event by any stretch of the imagination, but that bothered me more than anything else I've seen.

The anti-Walker stuff is really just funny since it's almost always so over the top because they've already exhausted the verbal hatred by now. From "Recall Walker" to "Impeach Walker" to "Jail Walker", where do you really go from there?

[TJ in Oregon]

Prosecutors allege Scott Walker was "at the center of a criminal scheme"

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/federal-judge-unseals-hundreds-of-documents-in-john-doe-probe-b99295017z1-263839791.html

Interestingly, the documents were unsealed at the request of the Wisconsin Club for Growth.

Glorious news!

Have you reached a sufficient level of political hackishness where you want Walker to be guilty of something (which hasn't happened and likely won't)?

[TJ in Oregon]

Wisconsin's Primaries are this Tuesday.

Here's a quick rundown on some of the races I'll be watching:

1. Republican Primary for WI-6, the seat of Jim Petri, who is retiring:

There are three candidates, State Senator Glenn Grothman (R-West BendCampbellsport), State Assemblyman Duey Stroebel (R-Cedarburg), and State Senator Joe Leibham (R-Sheboygan). Grothman is running as the Tea Party candidate though neither Leibham nor Stroebel is a RINO by any means. Grothman also didn't live in the district until earlier this year. While I don't live in WI-6 and obviously can't vote, I'm hoping Leibham wins because he best represents the district, I agree with him most ideologically, and I respect the work he's done to try and change Wisconsin's pathetic drunk driving laws. He's also the only candidate not from the Milwaukee metro area, which the majority of the district is not in. Regardless, I think any of the three can win in November and if I lived there would vote for any of the three.

2. Democratic Primary for Governor: I'm watching this, not because it will be close (it won't) but out of sheer amusement at how many votes State AssemblymanBrett Hulsey can get. Hulsey has raised some eyebrows over the years for knocking a random kid off an intertube at the beach, trying to make a backroom deal to switch parties, and handing out KKK hoods at the Republican State Convention, among other things. I see him all the time riding around town either in his car or by bike collecting signatures and shaking hands. I'm genuinely curious to see how much support an undefunded vocal anti-establishment left wing candidate can garner. Trek executive Mary Burke is obviously going to win.

3. Democratic Primary for WI 78th State Assembly District: In the district where I used to live up until a year ago, Madison City Aldermen Mark Clear and Lisa Subeck are vying to win the seat vacated by Brett Hulsey in is run for governor. Both are far, far to the left on pretty much every issue, though I'm rooting for Clear to win as although I agree with him on more or less nothing, he seems more amiable toward people with other views. That and Subeck was the Executive Director of NARAL Pro-Choice Wisconsin.

[TJ in Oregon]

In other bad news, Lisa Subeck defeated Mark Clear for Wisconsin Assembly District 78, adding another NARAL/Planned Parenthood abortion proponent to the Madison statehouse delegation.

[TJ in Oregon]

Looks like Grothman is going to win. Only candidate that could make the 6th competitive.

On a scale of 1 to Bachmann, how unelectable is he?

I'll let you decided.

I know that some of these are from left leaning sites, but I think it gets the point across.

Proposes Law That Declares Single Parenthood Child Abuse

"Women make less because ‘Money is more important for men"

Fights For A Seven-Day Workweek

More Quotes

I must say Gass, I'm rather underwhelmed by your scare quotes from Grothman. A little inarticulate maybe, but a lot of what he said is not wrong.

[TJ in Oregon]

Here's the Gubernatorial vote by ward in Madison:


As usual, Burke won every ward. The pattern looks mostly the same as usual with the two nodes of Republicans on campus and the far west side (and to a lesser extent the far east side). However, this time, the campus area is much more Republican than before. The Badger Herald even noticed Walker's unusually strong support. Walker's best ward this time was the 56th ward, consisting of two dorms and the Lucky Building. His second best ward was the 54th ward, which is entirely dorms. The 54th ward has been the most Republican in the past, even though it still moved to the right from 2012.

Walker's margins on the far west side were less impressive though the area remains one of the most Republican in the city.

[TJ in Oregon]

The area that really stands out for Walker is the Fox Valley. Brown and Outagamie are kind of swing counties, but Walker won them by huge margins.

He also did well in the North Woods. Madison, MKE, the WOW Counties, and East-Central Wisconsin all voted as they normally do.

[TJ in Oregon]

Holy cow! Did Walker actually win the city of Green Bay!?

[TJ in Oregon]

Did Walker carry the WI-03 CD? It looks close to me.

Yes he did.

Thanks. Here are my numbers lifted from the WI elections website (maybe a few more votes drifted in after these numbers were put up). Interestingly, the host of Pub gerrymandering county chops for this CD were worth about one point of PVI.



The CD might be in play if Kind vacates. It trended Pub 2.8% in PVI from 2008 to 2012, and if that trend repeats in 2016, its PVI will be down to a Dem PVI of 1% (from about a 3.5% PVI in the 2012 election). The Dem rather unusual hold on more rural and smaller town based lower middle to working class whites in this part of the Mississippi Valley (Iowa too), seems to be eroding some at the moment. The Pubs might wish now that WI-07 has trended so hard Pub (also about 2.8% in PVI), and Duffy is so well ensconced, that they had not gone there.

Below are maps of the current WI03 and WI-07, and one that gets rid of the chops and smooths out the lines (the revised WI-03 kind of has a tornado shape, doesn't it?), making WI-03 0.7% more Pub in PVI per 2008 numbers, and WI-07 0.7% less Pub. The Pubs did a lot of chops and erosity for not much, which now appears counterproductive politically for them. Kind of sweet justice in a way, just like the Dems' "dummymander" in Illinois.

  

One caveat I'd like to throw in here is that you can't trust 2008 presidential numbers in Wisconsin to be indicative of much of anything. A 2008-2012 Republican trend is most likely just a reversion to the mean in prior presidential elections in the rural parts of the state. There has been a lot of discussion about the trends in SW Wisconsin in favor of the Dems and NW Wisconsin in favor of the Republicans (compare 2012 to 2004 or 2000). I wouldn't be shocked to see everything north of La Crosse except for the city of Eau Claire and Portage Counties become Republican territory in the near future.

But the real key to WI-3 is to find a moderate Republican who has the right kind of crossover appeal. We do have a lot of state legislators from this area. But it's super-elastic and certainly won't be safe for us or particularly close against Kind.

As for Duffy, while it was made safer than probably necessary for him, it was made to make sure he could survive a wave. The Republicans wanted to make sure they could still get 5 congressmen out of Wisconsin in another 2008 scenario. Duffy still isn't completely safe in a wave because of just how swingy the rural parts of the state are, though most people agree the long term trends are in Duffy's favor.

[TJ in Oregon]

Paul Soglin was reelected as Mayor of Madison, by a pretty large margin.

Not shocking. I even voted for him.

[TJ in Oregon]

A federal judge denied Abrahamson's initial request to block Supreme Court referendum.

[TJ in Oregon]

2015 Supreme Court Race

...looks like someone only did radio ads in Milwaukee.

[TJ in Oregon]

Althouse has analyzed this at length.

Yup. Abrahamson's argument makes no sense. Even if she were re-elected as Chief Justice, if the constitution changes, she wouldn't necessarily still hold that position. This reminds me of when Cuyahoga County massively overhauled its county charter and a bunch of sitting office holders had their positions taken away from them. Shirley Abrahamson's power as Chief Justice stems from her being given that power by the Wisconsin State Constitution. After April 29th, the Wisconsin State Constitution will no longer give her that power. That's how amendments work.

I must say though, that the voters of Wisconsin re-elected Bradley and passed that amendment makes no sense. I would love to hear a coherent explanation of someone could vote for Bradley and Yes on the amendment. Yet, both passed, so clearly a lot of people did.

[TJ in Oregon]

Federal judge clears way for chief justice vote.

And the cringeworthy comment of the week comes from Abrahamson's lawyer: “This surprised me because … the loss of civil rights, even for a short time is proven to be irreparable.”

[TJ in Oregon]

Patience Roggensack chosen as next Chief Justice of the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

Some people speculated it would be Pat Crooks instead, but it seems the four conservatives chose one of their own. I like Roggensack and think they made the best choice of the four. She's saying the right things at least.

[TJ in Oregon]

Governor Walker has appointed Wisconsin appeals court Judge Rebecca Bradley to the state Supreme Court to replace deceased Justice Crooks. Bradley is running for a full term this spring, so will likely do something for her chances of winning, though I'm not sure whether it will help her or hurt.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court looks like it will have a very polarized 5-2 conservative majority.

[TJ in Oregon]

Could someone please explain to me why Johnson is so unpopular?  Is it simply because he's Republican?

He's not really unpopular, no one just knows or cares about him much. He's bland. He's never in the news. etc.

[TJ in Oregon]

Results of the new Marquette poll:

Bradley: 40.9%
Kloppenburg: 36.0%

https://t.co/eifW2aSx7L

That's a huge undecided number.

Presumably much of the state doesn't know who they are. I'd bet a lot of the undecideds undervote.