Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

^ He goes by "John Bel" as his first name.

[RI]

^ He goes by "John Bel" as his first name.

The South is weird.

[Miles]

Vitter's ad. Not much as far as an 'apology.'

That ad is going to play very well. RIP prostitution story

Trolling is transparent.

I'll also just point out that this ad was supposed to be addressing his experience with prostitutes. Its title is "Hard Times."

I suppose he found that title to be the most accurate description...

[Skye]

Vitter's ad. Not much as far as an 'apology.'

Why does he talk that way? It's unsettling.

[kansasdemocrat]

Vitter's ad. Not much as far as an 'apology.'

That ad is going to play very well. RIP prostitution story

Trolling is transparent.

I'm not trolling. They're going to eat the whole seeking redemption thing right up.

[Ebsy]

I commented "Diaper Dave 2k15!" on the video, but sadly it was removed when they disabled comments. Vitter isn't even governor and is already quashing dissent against his regime.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I commented "Diaper Dave 2k15!" on the video, but sadly it was removed when they disabled comments. Vitter isn't even governor and is already quashing dissent against his regime.

A lot of John Bel's ads have comments disabled too. It's a (fairly) standard practice for online political ads - you don't want the comments controlling your polling trajectory, you want the actual ad doing that.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/devin_johnson82/status/663768618329440256
http://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2015_1121_StatewideStats.pdf

dems continue to out early vote gop -- 21321 to 14788 w/ 6022 ind

http://www.myarklamiss.com/news/local-news/early-voting-numbers-up

Early voting numbers for the November 21 runoff are off to a good start.

According to the Louisiana Secretary of State's office, 42,131 people voted early on Saturday, compared to 37,611 that voted early on October 10 for the October 24 primary election.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/devin_johnson82/status/663768618329440256
http://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2015_1121_StatewideStats.pdf

dems continue to out early vote gop -- 21321 to 14788 w/ 6022 ind

http://www.myarklamiss.com/news/local-news/early-voting-numbers-up

Early voting numbers for the November 21 runoff are off to a good start.

According to the Louisiana Secretary of State's office, 42,131 people voted early on Saturday, compared to 37,611 that voted early on October 10 for the October 24 primary election.

That adds up to:

50.6% Likely Edwards
35.1% Likely Vitter
14.3% Unknown

I imagine most of the unknowns are voting Vitter.

[Miles]

Ted Cruz endorses Vitter.

[Miles]

Vitter's ad. Not much as far as an 'apology.'

That ad is going to play very well. RIP prostitution story

Trolling is transparent.

I'll also just point out that this ad was supposed to be addressing his experience with prostitutes. Its title is "Hard Times."

I suppose he found that title to be the most accurate description...

They've renamed it to "Difficult Times." I guess they do read the internet...

[Miles]

Early voting totals doubled from yesterday, from 42K to 81K, which is good. Black turnout is slipping somewhat, though - it started at 30% and is down to about 28.5% now.

There was a debate yesterday and there will be another tonight. Supposedly it will be streamed online. It should be at 8 ET.

[Tender Branson]

Shouldn't the thread title be renamed "Welcome to the runoff" ?

@miles

[DINGO Joe]

Looked at the absentee vote this morning, don't know why, because without historical data it's kind of hard to extrapolate anything.  I would assume that population voting on Saturdays will be slightly different than those who vote on weekdays, some Parishes may have a history of voting earlier in the period vs later, etc...

Anyway, a few random thoughts

In Caddo, much more A-A thus far

East Baton Rouge on pace for higher early vote, B/W and D/R about the same.  EBR is the home base for Holden and Dardenne, so may not mind the Rs voting here.

Jefferson is on pace for a slightly higher turnout, but thus far it's been more A-A and more D.  Jefferson is Vitter's home.

St. Tammany again slightly higher again slightly more D

Orleans slightly higher no real change in demos

St. Martin big dropoff thus far.  Angelle's home

Tangipahoa higher turnout.  Edwards home

Plaquemines much lower.  Nungessers home

St. Bernard way higher.  There's a competitive race for Parish President.  The previous PP was in a sex scandal much weirder than Vitter.  He was still on the ballot and got 3% of the vote.  Though Vitter ran a couple of hundred votes ahead of Edwards in the primary.

Beyond all that, in general, many rural parishes in Acadia and North seem to be lagging in early voting, but maybe they have a history of voting later.  Though I imagine the dropoff in Acadiana has to do with the absence of Angelle.

[Miles]

Shouldn't the thread title be renamed "Welcome to the runoff" ?

@miles

Yeah, I've been meaning to change it, but can't think of anything catchier than that.

[Miles]

Great comments, dingojoe!

A few things:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good, 47% parishwide for JBE in the primary was lower than I'd like. This was Vitter's strongest area outside of New Orleans - presumably, there will be less swingy Dardenne/Angelle voters here, making JBE rely more on black turnout.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Holden really did well here in the primary - you could his local operation's effectiveness. He did better than even Mary Landrieu in 2008. Hopefully that can help carry JBE.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also, John Young is off the ballot now. JBE/Holden were artificially low here in the primary, IMO, as you had two local Republicans in the LG race churning out their voters. 

[DINGO Joe]

Jefferson had Parish election too, including a competitive Parish President race, that didn't go to a runoff.  In fact, I think the only race that went to a runoff is a WB Senate seat that covers part of Algiers and Jefferson between Jeff Arnold and Troy Carter.

[Miles]

Sheriff Newell Normand, who Vitter's PI was spying on, held a press conference today. Not very much in the way of new information from what I can tell, but its timing means that it should provide some fodder for the debate tonight.

Regardless, this isn't going away for Vitter.

[Miles]

C-SPAN recording of the debate.

It wasn't dull.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Me watching this race


It literally just keeps getting better

[Maxwell]

GOD DAMN John Bel won't let David Vitter get away with his snide Republican bullsh**t. MAKE THIS MAN PRESIDENT!

[smoltchanov]

GOD DAMN John Bel won't let David Vitter get away with his snide Republican bullsh**t. MAKE THIS MAN PRESIDENT!

A person who is rated 100% by Prolife Louisiana? I doubt he will be able to win primary in California))))))

[smoltchanov]

GOD DAMN John Bel won't let David Vitter get away with his snide Republican bullsh**t. MAKE THIS MAN PRESIDENT!

A person who is rated 100% by Prolife Louisiana? I doubt he will be able to win primary in California))))))

If he wins, he would be a truly interesting VP pick for 2020/24.  But I can't fathom a pro-life top of the ticket for D's in this era.

Me too. Ideological positions of both parties hardened a lot recently...

[Zache]

GOD DAMN John Bel won't let David Vitter get away with his snide Republican bullsh**t. MAKE THIS MAN PRESIDENT!

A person who is rated 100% by Prolife Louisiana? I doubt he will be able to win primary in California))))))

He could moderate to similar positions on abortion as Joe Biden in the future without looking like a complete flip-flopper.

[smoltchanov]

GOD DAMN John Bel won't let David Vitter get away with his snide Republican bullsh**t. MAKE THIS MAN PRESIDENT!

A person who is rated 100% by Prolife Louisiana? I doubt he will be able to win primary in California))))))

He could moderate to similar positions on abortion as Joe Biden in the future without looking like a complete flip-flopper.

Only AFTER he stops being Governor of Louisiana and ONLY if he decides that his career in the state (probably - the most pro-life state in US) is over. Delaware is much more socially liberal, it's much easier to do such thing there...