COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Grassroots]

Sunday numbers are down but we've been burnt by Sunday's in the past we'll have to wait until Wednesday to see the true trajectory

There's no "true" trajectory, its a downward slepladder.

[Grassroots]

Lowest new case numbers since March today. Good work ladies and gents.

[Grassroots]

How are today's numbers looking?

[Grassroots]

Holy crap these people on twitter are dangerously stupid! Fauci is apparently part of the "Deep State" according to Trump supporters on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/va_shiva/status/1252312219653718016?s=20

How is conservatism not classifiable as a mental health crisis at this point?

These aren't conservatives, they are lolbertarians.

[Grassroots]

89 of Tennessee's 95 counties will have "the vast majority" of businesses open on May 1st, with some things set to open on April 27th.  The 6 exceptions are the Big 4 Cities plus Madison and Sullivan Counties.

https://www.tn.gov/governor/news/2020/4/20/gov--lee-announces-safer-at-home-order-will-expire-april-30--tennessee-begins-phased-reopening-next-week.html

Tennessee's cases haven't lowered yet tho.

[Grassroots]

DeSantis pulled this out during his presser today

And? Seems pretty straightforward to me.

[Grassroots]

SARS-COV-2 might be here to stay as it becomes endemic.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-may-be-here-to-stay

Projections by specialists suggest that periodical physical distancing measures may become a necessity if the new coronavirus becomes a seasonal occurrence.

In the study paper, which appears in the journal Science, the researchers explain that it is likely that the new coronavirus will become endemic, with infections ebbing and flowing throughout the coming years. The same happens with cold and flu viruses.

This being the case, the authors suggest that physical distancing may become an intermittent requirement until 2022.

To understand how transmission patterns of SARS-CoV-2 might evolve, the researchers looked to the dynamics of two seasonal coronaviruses: beta-coronaviruses OC43 and HKU1. These are two common human coronaviruses that cause cold-like symptoms.

According to the team’s simulation, infections with SARS-CoV-2 might also become a seasonal occurrence, as is the case with the other beta-coronaviruses that infect humans.

Because there are currently no vaccines or targeted treatments for infections with the new coronavirus, the researchers project that on-and-off physical distancing may be a necessary measure over the next couple of years. This is to prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed.

“What seems to be necessary in the absence of other sorts of treatments are intermittent [physical] distancing periods,” says Kissler.

The investigators emphasize the need to strike a balance between healthcare capacity and economic resources on a case-by-case basis.

On the one hand, they say that some transmission of the virus may create a level of herd immunity, which could reduce its impact.

“By permitting periods of transmission that reach higher prevalence than otherwise would be possible, they allow an accelerated acquisition of herd immunity,” notes study co-author Prof. Marc Lipsitch.

On the other hand, too-stringent physical distancing measures might mean that humans cannot establish herd immunity at all, which would make a resurgence of the virus particularly problematic.

According to the study paper, “longer and more stringent temporary [physical] distancing did not always correlate with greater reductions in epidemic peak size.”

Alarmist propaganda. This paints an overtly pessimistic scenario for vaccines in which one doesn't get approved for years, which is highly unlikely given how much promise several vaccine candidates have already given. Secondly, if we don't find a vaccine I guarantee you the world would just let it spread rather than social distance on and off.

[Grassroots]

With the rate that states are going, this is going to be a continued outright pandemic for months ahead with more cases and more deaths. It's shameful.

As a person who checks the case numbers for almost every state every single day, we could see an end to this by mid may in most states.

But the alarmists won't tell you that.

[Grassroots]

As a person who checks the case numbers for almost every state every single day, we could see an end to this by mid may in most states.

Case numbers will be far, far less than now (certainly not 5 digits), but not zero.

Pandemics have a beginning, middle, and end. The downslope will be pretty slow compared to the upslope. It'll be down to almost zero someday, but it'll be a long, long time.

It will never be down to 0, but it will realistically be down to about 100 national cases per day around June, which is just fine.

With the rate that states are going, this is going to be a continued outright pandemic for months ahead with more cases and more deaths. It's shameful.

As a person who checks the case numbers for almost every state every single day, we could see an end to this by mid may in most states.

So why do you ask everyday how the numbers are looking?

I ask that very early in the day because I always want a sneak peak.

[Grassroots]

I'll take the middle ground here, right now cases are declining, but once we start to reopen states and businesses what's to say it'll keep declining and now start to rise again? Wisconsin saw a spike after their election, Japan and Hong Kong are seeing a rise after they relaxed restrictions.

What?

[Grassroots]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

Probably somewhere between the Spanish Flu and the Asian Flu.
If I had to make a scale out of 5, Covid-19 would be in the middle.
5: Black Death/N.A Smallpox
4: Spanish Flu
3: Covid-19
2: Asian Flu/Polio
1. Swine Flu/Ebola

I don't think Ebola belongs on the same scale, as it has never caused a true pandemic, only localized epidemics (and it's ill-suited to cause one in most developed countries based on how it spreads).  Also, the gaps between these are not consistent.  The Black Death (which some believe may have actually been an Ebola-like illness) would be a 100+ if the Spanish Flu was a 4.  I think it's hard to comprehend an epidemic truly killing 1/3 to 1/2 of the population- because nothing like that has been seen since the Black Death (except smallpox in the New World).

Bro what? The Black Death was caused by Plague, a disease which is caused by the bacterium Yersinia Pestis. That's nothing like Ebola, which is a virus.

[Grassroots]

Trump is suspending ALL Immigration to the U.S

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=21

He should have done this back in March.

He should have done this on his first day in office.

[Grassroots]

April 20
Grassr00ts State Progress map
Based on state trend in new cases per day

-Cases strongly decreasing (50% green) 8 states (+5)
-Cases starting to decrease (30% green) 11 states (-2)
-Cases peaking out (30% yellow) 26 states (-1)
-Cases increasing but slowing (30% red) 6 states (-1)
-Cases increasing badly (50% red) 2 states (-)

-Ohio's case surge is almost entirely due to an outbreak at a prison in Marion county, in which 73% of the inmates at the prison have it.
-Nebraska and Iowa's case surges are due mainly to meatpacking plants.

[Grassroots]

We need to start accepting the possibility that a vaccine won't be here until 2022.

I'm not saying that's going to happen and I'm not saying it's likely, but that is a very real possibility.

There will be a second outbreak / wave unless international borders stay closed. Even then it could happen anyway.

Even though most experts are expecting one by Spring of 2021? The author here argues that coronaviruses are hard to make a vaccine for. Sure, but unlike SARS and MERS, they didn't have over 70 independent vaccines being tested at once.

you need to stop with the fear mongering dude.

[Grassroots]

Of all past epidemics/pandemics in world history, which do you all think comes as the closest analogy to what we are going through now?  

Probably somewhere between the Spanish Flu and the Asian Flu.
If I had to make a scale out of 5, Covid-19 would be in the middle.
5: Black Death/N.A Smallpox
4: Spanish Flu
3: Covid-19
2: Asian Flu/Polio
1. Swine Flu/Ebola

I don't think Ebola belongs on the same scale, as it has never caused a true pandemic, only localized epidemics (and it's ill-suited to cause one in most developed countries based on how it spreads).  Also, the gaps between these are not consistent.  The Black Death (which some believe may have actually been an Ebola-like illness) would be a 100+ if the Spanish Flu was a 4.  I think it's hard to comprehend an epidemic truly killing 1/3 to 1/2 of the population- because nothing like that has been seen since the Black Death (except smallpox in the New World).

Bro what? The Black Death was caused by Plague, a disease which is caused by the bacterium Yersinia Pestis. That's nothing like Ebola, which is a virus.

Some researchers have called that into question and believe that its spread, mortality, and symptoms were more in line with a viral hemorrhagic fever than the plague.

https://www.nature.com/scitable/blog/viruses101/could_the_black_death_actually/
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/black-death-was-caused-by-the-ebola-virus-9242867.html
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=117310&page=1

There are a large amount of records which clearly state the existence of buboes and necrosis on victims, which are two symptoms in which plague is entirely known for.

[Grassroots]

It looks like yesterday's bump was almost entirely due to California, which dumped a bunch at once. Almost every other state saw a decline in new cases yesterday, including New York, which is at it's lowest number of new cases since mid-March.

[Grassroots]

Italy now at it's lowest numbers since early March.

Spain now at it's lowest numbers since early March.

Germany now at it's lowest numbers since early March.

Japan's case rates are currently freefalling.

On the flip side, some countries that were late to the game, such as Russia and Turkey, are now seeing case surges.

[Grassroots]

If the Democrats don't use their leverage to make sure universal vote-by-mail is in the next stimulus package, then the 2020 elections cannot be held.

This assumes that we will be in pandemic mode by November, which is unlikely unless a second surge happens by then.

[Grassroots]

Italy now at it's lowest numbers since early March.

Spain now at it's lowest numbers since early March.

Germany now at it's lowest numbers since early March.

Japan's case rates are currently freefalling.

On the flip side, some countries that were late to the game, such as Russia and Turkey, are now seeing case surges.

Pennslyvania just recorded its highest # of deaths in a single day (360)

My data shows me that the most deaths in a day in PA from covid was on the 14th.

Today, PA reached it's lowest new case numbers since March.

[Grassroots]

The treatment front:

-Remdesivir
Status: Very Promising

-Plasma treatments
Status: Very Promising

-Hydroxychloroquine
Status: Questionable

-Colchicine
Status: Interesting

-Malarial Drugs
Status: Losing battle

-Nitric Oxide
Status: Interesting

-Baricitinib
Status: Interesting

[Grassroots]

Munich has canceled this year's Oktoberfest.

Why would they do that? It's in september?

[Grassroots]

Updated data from CDC show that more Americans over the age of 85 have died of COVID-19 than those under age 65.  The risks to young people are terribly overstated by the sensationalist media. 

It is a shame that an 86 year olds life means less to you people than the life of a 55 year old.

I can guarantee you it doesn't to him. He's just showing the truth.

But it's ok, continue to assume a moral high-ground which you don't have.

[Grassroots]

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

I think the IHME and Meclazine’s models will be proven inaccurate as well,

No? This is a backlog of unreported cases. Meclazine predicted a peak of active cases nationally two days ago. I see nothing which disproves that.

[Grassroots]

Updated data from CDC show that more Americans over the age of 85 have died of COVID-19 than those under age 65.  The risks to young people are terribly overstated by the sensationalist media. 

It is a shame that an 86 year olds life means less to you people than the life of a 55 year old.

I can guarantee you it doesn't to him. He's just showing the truth.

But it's ok, continue to assume a moral high-ground which you don't have.

You might want to tone it down.

I don't think I will. People shouldn't be able to purposefully misinterpret another person's statement to make them seem bad or wrong.

[Grassroots]

The US is going to set a new daily record for deaths today (at least according to the worldometers count).  The models that projected the peak to come around April 10 were clearly way off.

The peak in deaths isn't the same as a peak in new cases, and you must realize this is backlog right? It doesn't give an accurate picture into how many people are actually dying from this per day.