COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Grassroots]

Awesome numbers for today.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1265032521567404032

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https://www.npr.org/2020/05/15/856293764/french-drug-giant-sanofi-takes-heat-after-suggesting-u-s-may-get-1st-vaccine-acc
Great news for the US

The French Government is acting ridiculous. As the most hit country in the World right now, it makes sense to give the vaccine to the Americans first. If America did the same and the circumstances were reversed, the media would have a field day.
(Although to be honest, given how long a vaccine will take, America probably won’t be the most hard hit by then.)

Brazil will be the hardest hit, without question. I actually think at the end of the day they might end up with more deaths than us, if not cases too.

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1265045009323241472

That's actually badass.

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I'm very pessimistic about a Vaccine before Summer 2021, if I am being quite honest. The data we're getting from the early candidates isn't exactly great, it's good, but not great

I'm very optimistic about a vaccine before winter. Perhaps you should check your cynicism.

[Grassroots]

I'm very pessimistic about a Vaccine before Summer 2021, if I am being quite honest. The data we're getting from the early candidates isn't exactly great, it's good, but not great

I'm very optimistic about a vaccine before winter. Perhaps you should check your cynicism.

Why should I? Even leading scientists say it's extremely optimistic and unlikely we get a distributed vaccine before 2021. First it will take time to mass produce it on a scale to give to enough people, and first it will be given to health care workers and the most vulnerable first. Everything would HAVE to go right to get one out before years end. 

Everything has gone right so far pretty much.

[Grassroots]

I'm very pessimistic about a Vaccine before Summer 2021, if I am being quite honest. The data we're getting from the early candidates isn't exactly great, it's good, but not great

I'm very optimistic about a vaccine before winter. Perhaps you should check your cynicism.

Why should I? Even leading scientists say it's extremely optimistic and unlikely we get a distributed vaccine before 2021. First it will take time to mass produce it on a scale to give to enough people, and first it will be given to health care workers and the most vulnerable first. Everything would HAVE to go right to get one out before years end. 

Everything has gone right so far pretty much.

Has it?  I’m still optimistic, but my impressions are that the Oxford vaccine hasn’t proven to actually suppress infection in monkeys, and the Moderna vaccine is showing a lot of troubling side effects.  And the most important thing we could do to speed things along (human challenge trials) we still aren’t doing and seem to have no plans to do.

I've heard nothing about that with the oxford vaccine except that it did actually protect monkeys from the infection. With the moderna vaccine, a man who received a x10 load of the vaccine for research purposes was sick for a day.

[Grassroots]

The riots are outdoors, where it’s very difficult for covid to spread. I doubt it will affect much.

[Grassroots]

One thing to note is that deaths have been on a steady downward trend, while cases are largely plateauing. Is the virus is slowly mutating to become less deadly?

Yes. This was noticed by scientists early on. Same thing happened with a few other viruses, including SARS, but SARS's mutation trend eventually made it even less contagious.

[Grassroots]

There will either be a massive spike in cases coming up, or we just shut down part of the economy for two months for no reason.

Cases are already showing signs of rising, so don’t get too hopeful.

No? Where are you getting this from?

[Grassroots]

The 7 day average for new cases is continuing to slowly rise.
Although today is a bit higher than it should be because Massachusetts has a case dump.

Where are you getting this from? Nate Silver has today's case numbers falling to a record low, 16K.

[Grassroots]

Think that's the first day since early in part 1 where we haven't pushed a new page in this thread.

The nation has moved on past the virus

"Moved on" implies that the virus is behind us, which is not the case.  I think it would be more accurate to say that (a) the situation has stabilized, and (b) people are used to it by now. 

Yea I agree 100%, the second wave this fall will be humbling, it’s just that the protests have captured the national attention now

There's no guarantee that there will be a second wave, but it is certainly noteworthy that coronavirus has finally been pushed from the top of the news for the first time in over two months. However, it is still with us, and signs of it are still everywhere. Notice how most of the protesters have been wearing masks.

The virus is still going on but the initial hype is wearing off. When a second wave strikes in winter, we probably won't need protective measures at all, due to increased healthcare capacity.

[Grassroots]

Yesterday, the U.S. had the lowest positivity rate since March 4. It was the lowest since at least March 5 (probably earlier) using the 7-day rolling average.

As you probably know, the authorities and experts have been expressing their concerns that there will be a resurgence in coronavirus cases due to the protests and riots we have been seeing. I'm not sure how much of an impact this will have on the maintenance of social distancing regulations.

The case bumps from events (such as elections) have always been lower than predicted. I wouldn't sweat over it.

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/thegarance/status/1268666934364700674

WTF that came out of nowhere

[Grassroots]

It appears that the virus is mutating in the right direction rather than the wrong direction, scientists saying it's been getting less deadly. This checks out too because SARS did the same thing.

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Well, there are often days that don't align with other days, but I'm afraid we will be seeing cases creep back up. Ugh.

That said, I won't blame just the protests. Even before they started, the number of people wearing masks and staying home had already begun to decline here.

There was actually a great socially distant protest here in Madison--they were in cars and blocking part of the main arterial highway. People could still get around/to their destinations, but it was certainly an inconvenience, and protestors were in their own cars. I'm all about more protests like that. Gain attention, make sure emergency services can still get through, and stay socially distant. Perfect protest during a pandemic.

Try reading the thread before saying this. Several states including MI and MN just dumped probable cases and deaths, and we just reached an all time testing high.

[Grassroots]

I was a supporter of the restrictions, but the political motivations and double standards of these "experts" has resulted in me cutting my support. I don't want to hear any more "6 ft apart" or "wear a mask". I will be doing neither. F*** you and your agenda.

[Grassroots]

LOL @ blaming the police for a new COVID spike. A new low for the left.

[Grassroots]

Ayo record low death toll

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Arch skipped posting today? Tf?

[Grassroots]

The democrats have no right to force stay at home orders down our throats for the resurgence that they caused by supporting the protests and riots.

[Grassroots]

The democrats have no right to force stay at home orders down our throats for the resurgence that they caused by supporting the protests and riots.

Really going off the rails as of late, Grassy. 

My view is a very mainstream view.

[Grassroots]

It appears that cases are increasing generally in places where the initial outbreak wasn't bad.