NC: CDs 1 & 12 struck down

[Nyvin]

This ruling and others like it around the country seem to suggest the entire Judicial system in the country is shifting against partisan gerrymandering....largely following rising public opinion against the same issue.

...which is absolutely fantastic.

[Nyvin]

With SCOTUS likely deadlocked 4-4 on a stay and the lower court denying, the NC legislature should be obligated to redraw this week, right?

I can't imagine the NC legislature getting out of this now.

Also to note that the Virginia redistricting map seems set in stone now.

[Nyvin]

Just for fun I made a map that redraws both NC-1 and NC-12.   Of course the chances of anything remotely resembling this actually being enacted is practically nothing.  

Still though...it was interesting how easy it is to make NC-1 a BVAP plurality without going into Durham county at all, and barely touching Wake.    

Beyond that it's really just giving Charlotte and Greensboro/Winston-Salem their own districts (wow, what a crazy concept!!).    NC-12 is still a minority coalition district (which again is pretty simple to draw in Mecklenburg Co by itself...).





The Democrats only really pick up 2 seats (NC-6 and NC-13) since I doubt NC-7 is still competitive anymore.    8-5 is a heck of an improvement over 10-3 though.

[Nyvin]

There isn't any realistic hope to expect anything to come out of this to help democrats.     There is literally no check to Republican power in the state, and thanks to gerrymandering it's most likely going to stay that way.

How great, to fix gerrymandering you first need to undo the gerrymandering....a perfect catch-22.

[Nyvin]

And we have a map:

Wait, this is the ACTUAL new map? Wow.

So are there any possible Dem pickups, or is it basically just the same thing from a partisan perspective? If it is, then why did the GOP even bother gerrymandering so much in the first place?

They created the most Democratic districts possible into as few districts as possible, then basically tried to evenly divide the Republican vote around the state throughout the rest of the districts.

That's why all the Republican PVI's are all around R+10 or R+12 and nothing outside that range. 

It's basically all you can possibly get out of gerrymandering without downright absurd districts.

[Nyvin]

It looks like it will be remotely possible for the Dems to win NC-13 and NC-9 now,  if not in 2016 at least sometime before 2020.

[Nyvin]

With the Triad booming and the northeast facing population decline, I find it most likely that they'll just insert NC-1 more into Wake and Durham to make it more of a Dem sink.    This is especially true now that "race isn't a factor".     

It's probably possible to make a 11-3 map, although some of the districts would be kinda risky.

[Nyvin]

With the Triad booming and the northeast facing population decline, I find it most likely that they'll just insert NC-1 more into Wake and Durham to make it more of a Dem sink.    This is especially true now that "race isn't a factor".     

It's probably possible to make a 11-3 map, although some of the districts would be kinda risky.

The triad is not exactly booming, at least not relative to Charlotte or the Triangle.

Oh I see I have my terms mixed up....

[Nyvin]

I love this map. It's clean and a lot like my design for NC. A Mecklenburg seat is long overdue and Democrats can whine all they want but karma's a b*tch. They sliced and diced the state to suit them in 2001.

I'd have corrected the Buncombe county split though. I don't like it.

Lastly, incumbents should not be a factor in drawing district lines. I don't give a damn that Holding and Adams aren't in their district anymore. Districts don't belong to any Congressmen

I agree with the Mecklenburg seat (I had it in my map).   Greensboro and Winston-Salem should have their own district as well though,  same with Durham and Chapel Hill (with parts of Raleigh).    I would think any good government map would draw those urban seats without much trouble.   It's just partisan games not to make them.

I knew going into this NC-10 and NC-11 would be the only districts left mostly unchanged.

[Nyvin]

The SCOTUS refused to stay the case. These are the new maps.

Not surprising, as I'm quite sure the Rule of Four only applies to a writ of cert (with a stay requiring a majority). I think that new map will remain, at least under the current Court (and certainly at least for this year's election). If the plaintiffs really wanted to be bold, they could argue at the Fourth Circuit for a justiciable standard to restrict partisan redistricting. If a fifth liberal justice is eventually confirmed to replace Justice Scalia, I do expect the Supreme Court to take up partisan redistricting and rule for standards restricting the practice.

Yep,   we're witnessing a  national judicial shift on partisan redistricting.    The days of gerrymandering are numbered.