What if Biden chose not to run in 2020?

[jmsstnyng]

1) Who would likely be the nominee?

2) Would he/she win against Trump?

[John King wannabe]

Sherrod Brown would probably be the nominee and go on to defeat Trump.

[UWS]

I guess the nominee is either Sanders or Bloomberg. As we've seen IOTL, Buttigieg would not have gone so far beyond South Carolina due to his lack of support among the African-American community, though he may have tried to continue on Super Tuesday but likely would have gotten crushed in southern Super Tuesday states.

[RGM2609]

Sanders, because I doubt the establishment would be able to unite against him as quickly as they did without someone with Biden's gravitas, and they enter Super Tuesday with more candidates (probably including Harris).

[NewYorkExpress]

We'd be talking about President-Elect Elizabeth Warren right now.

[If my soul was made of stone]

More of those whose thunder he stole (Booker, Bullock, O'Rourke) make it to the primaries, making Sanders' small lead over a crowded field more comfortable than it was unless Buttimentum or Klobmentum become addictive. Not enough of them swallow their pride and bow out to allow the consolidation of the vote, but regional quirks allow a good amount of them to come out on top in at least one contest in states opposed to Sanders. A contested convention is possible, but even if it doesn't occur Sanders' acceptance of the nomination is quite contentious. Trump wins Georgia in November, otherwise the map is the same but with margins shuffled around a fair bit.

[brucejoel99]

We'd be talking about President-Elect Elizabeth Warren right now.

We certainly would've been talking about Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren, but I'm not at all confident that we'd be talking about President-elect Warren right about now.

[Chips]

We'd be talking about President-Elect Elizabeth Warren right now.

We certainly would've been talking about Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren, but I'm not at all confident that we'd be talking about President-elect Warren right about now.

[UWS]

We'd be talking about President-Elect Elizabeth Warren right now.

We certainly would've been talking about Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren, but I'm not at all confident that we'd be talking about President-elect Warren right about now.

And even before Super Tuesday, Sanders was leading Warren in her home state of Massachusetts. So if she still lost the Massachusetts primary to Sanders instead of Biden, Warren would still have dropped out after Super Tuesday.

[Beet]

It's really impossible to make such a counterfactual so far out. However, most likely:

Bernie Sanders narrowly defeats Michael Bloomberg for the Democratic nomination.

After a hard fought campaign featuring relentless assaults on Sanders' extreme positions such as abolishing private insurance, abolishing the energy industry, open borders, and gaffes by his high level staff such as Cornel West and Briahna Gray, Trump narrowly wins re-election by taking GA, AZ, WI and PA.

Analysts compare Sanders with Corbyn and claim that just as Brexit predicted the 2016 election, the 2019 UK general election predicted the 2020 election.

[Pericles]

In the most likely scenario, Donald Trump would be about to accept a second term in office, with McConnell being Majority Leader for at least 8 years, and perhaps even Kevin McCarthy has just taken the Speakership of the House.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie wins

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Margins:

NV: Sanders+.5
AZ: Trump+.9
WI: Trump+.3
MI: Sanders+1.1
PA: Sanders+.2
NC: Trump+2.7
GA: Trump+1.1
FL: Trump+ 4.5

All other states decided by over 5.0


No clue how NE-2 shakes out but it goes to the house either way.  Also the primary would be too unpredictable with Bernie only getting 23-27% support and other candidates getting a bit more without Biden.

[brucejoel99]

We'd be talking about President-Elect Elizabeth Warren right now.

We certainly would've been talking about Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren, but I'm not at all confident that we'd be talking about President-elect Warren right about now.

And even before Super Tuesday, Sanders was leading Warren in her home state of Massachusetts. So if she still lost the Massachusetts primary to Sanders instead of Biden, Warren would still have dropped out after Super Tuesday.

A lot of people forget this but Warren actually had a winning coalition for a week or so during the primaries back in late 2019. Her half-moderate/half-progressive base made clear that she was capable of building a coalition by constructively articulating her message & being nimble enough to pull in key support from other candidates/internal party constituencies. Had Biden not run, then there's no reason why she couldn't have managed to hold onto that & run away with the primary on the back of her coalition of progressives & more liberal moderates.

[Agonized-Statism]

President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)
Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) / Fmr. National Security Advisor Susan Rice (D-DC) ✓

There would be a Stop Sanders movement behind Buttigieg, I would think. Functionally, he has exactly the same path to victory through the suburbs, and no, I don't think minority voters drop off any more than they did just because he's gay. As a matter of fact, Buttigieg would probably be more palatable within the Democratic Party than the Biden/Harris ticket- no Crime Bill, no over-incarceration, no busing opposition, no "you ain't black", et cetera (inb4 angry white Biden hacks). He was the first choice of all the Sun Belt Democrats and pre-Trump Republicans I know, personally.

[Not Me, Us]

President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)
Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) / Fmr. National Security Advisor Susan Rice (D-DC) ✓

There would be a Stop Sanders movement behind Buttigieg, I would think. Functionally, he has exactly the same path to victory through the suburbs, and no, I don't think minority voters drop off any more than they did just because he's gay. As a matter of fact, Buttigieg would probably be more palatable within the Democratic Party than the Biden/Harris ticket- no Crime Bill, no over-incarceration, no busing opposition, no "you ain't black", et cetera (inb4 angry white Biden hacks). He was the first choice of all the Sun Belt Democrats and pre-Trump Republicans I know, personally.

Buttigieg performed terribly among minorities in the primary. That wouldn't necessarily carry over into the general, but I don't see why he would perform any better among minorities in a Biden-less primary, especially since a lack of Biden means other candidates who were forced out before the primaries irl could find a path based on AA support in the South (Harris, Booker).

[Agonized-Statism]

Buttigieg performed terribly among minorities in the primary. That wouldn't necessarily carry over into the general, but I don't see why he would perform any better among minorities in a Biden-less primary, especially since a lack of Biden means other candidates who were forced out before the primaries irl could find a path based on AA support in the South (Harris, Booker).

But would it be enough to count him out? There would be plenty of ways for Buttigieg to make up that support without an "obvious choice" for African Americans in the race, especially if the alternative was Sanders, who didn't do well with that group in either of his runs despite his second coalition being heavier with minorities (Mexican-Americans primarily). And if some third wheel won some of the Southern states, Buttigieg would at the very least be a strong candidate in a contested convention.

We'll never know either way, but I still think it's likely that Buttigieg would have a base in the Midwest, Northwest, some of the Northeast, and the Outer South. That's a strong start.

[ultraviolet]

We'd be talking about President-Elect Elizabeth Warren right now.

We certainly would've been talking about Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren, but I'm not at all confident that we'd be talking about President-elect Warren right about now.

And even before Super Tuesday, Sanders was leading Warren in her home state of Massachusetts. So if she still lost the Massachusetts primary to Sanders instead of Biden, Warren would still have dropped out after Super Tuesday.

A lot of people forget this but Warren actually had a winning coalition for a week or so during the primaries back in late 2019. Her half-moderate/half-progressive base made clear that she was capable of building a coalition by constructively articulating her message & being nimble enough to pull in key support from other candidates/internal party constituencies. Had Biden not run, then there's no reason why she couldn't have managed to hold onto that & run away with the primary on the back of her coalition of progressives & more liberal moderates.

Yep. She was riding high around October 2019 before Bernie won away some of her support. But if Biden wasn’t running, she and her “half-moderate/half-progressive” stances would certainly be favored over Sanders, but then there’s Bloomberg to think about too.

I do think Warren would’ve won the primaries in the end, but the general is a lot harder to predict.

[jmsstnyng]

I think Sherrod Brown would have been a great fit for the '20 Democratic party.