Suffolk Poll: DEM+Indy voters most excited about Biden, Sanders

[Tender Branson]

I’m going to read you a list of some Democrats who may oppose Donald Trump in the 2020
election. Let’s start with (RANDOMIZE): Excited, no strong feelings, drop out, or never heard?

n= 600 Democrats and Independents

This survey of 1,000 registered voters was conducted between March 13 and March 17, 2019, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults 18 years of age or older, residing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Quota and demographic information—including region, race, and age—were determined from national census data. Samples of both standard landlines and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each state were proportional to the number of adult residents in each state. States were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the households were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. Surveys were administered in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-3 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document above. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/national

[Tender Branson]

Democrats and independents are most enthusiastic about a potential Biden candidacy

In a large field of declared and potential Democratic candidates for president in 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden is the one who most excites Democrats and independent voters’ imaginations (59 percent are excited about his potential candidacy), according to a Suffolk University/USA Today poll. The survey presented the potential candidates’ names, not as a horse race, but rather asked about a range of feelings for each candidate.

Vt. Sen. Bernie Sanders had the second highest level of excitement (42 percent), but the would-be 2016 nominee also had the greatest percentage of voters who said he should drop out (33 percent).

The poll also shows that Democratic and independent voters’ want a demographic balance on the ticket, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk Political Research Center in Boston.

"When Democrats and independents were asked if they would be satisfied if their party's nominee for president and vice president were two white men, a plurality of respondents said no,” said Paleologos. “This means that if Biden or Sanders were nominated, they might see voter intensity drop should they tap a white male vice presidential candidate.”

Forty-four percent of Democrats and 36 percent of independents rejected the idea of an all-white-male ticket.

Other candidates, in descending order of voter enthusiasm, included Calif. Sen. Kamala Harris (36 percent), former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke (34 percent), Mass. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (32 percent), N.J. Sen. Cory Booker (31 percent), Minn. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (18 percent), N.Y. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (14 percent), and former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, (12 percent). Others presented in the poll had levels of excitement below 8 percent.

Democrats said they would chose a candidate who can win (48 percent) over one whose priorities are in line with their own (38 percent).

Issues that could swing Democratic voters toward a particular candidate are: higher taxes on the very wealthy (75 percent), Medicare for all (69 percent), free higher education (63 percent), breaking up tech companies and the Green New Deal (45 percent each).

High unfavorable ratings for America’s two major parties—48 percent unfavorable for both the Democratic and Republican parties—are reflected in many voters’ favoring third-party candidates or remaining undecided as they contemplate the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump held an edge in an election scenario against unnamed opponents, with 39 percent of voters saying they would choose him if the election were held today, 36 percent choosing an unnamed Democratic nominee, and 11 percent a third-party candidate, with 14 percent undecided.

"Both the Democratic and Republican nominees will have to reconcile this 11 percent of voters who say that they would vote for a third-party candidate,” said Paleologos. “In fact among self-described moderate independent voters, the number jumped to 26 percent, and to 33 percent among independents who consider themselves liberal."

In terms of Trump’s job performance, 49 percent of voters disapprove and 48 percent approve, with 3 percent undecided.

[Zaybay]

Another day, another pretty great polling company makes a useless D primary poll that doesnt actually tell us who is supporting who. The Trump approval is the only real thing of note, and its....yikes.

[2016]

Another day, another pretty great polling company makes a useless D primary poll that doesnt actually tell us who is supporting who. The Trump approval is the only real thing of note, and its....yikes.

Suffolk ain't a useless Polling Company. You're making the same mistakes you did with NBC/Marist in 2018. According to you every Pollsters that doesn't fit your narrative is bad. How sad!

[Zaybay]

Another day, another pretty great polling company makes a useless D primary poll that doesnt actually tell us who is supporting who. The Trump approval is the only real thing of note, and its....yikes.

Suffolk ain't a useless Polling Company. You're making the same mistakes you did with NBC/Marist in 2018. According to you every Pollsters that doesn't fit your narrative is bad. How sad!

Love that you completely missed both the fact that I called Suffolk a great polling company, and the fact that I also establish that the reason its not a good poll is because they didnt ask about the one of the most important aspects of a primary, the levels of support each candidate has with the D primary electorate.

[Sestak]

Yeah, while I agree that asking these things add a great deal more depth to a horserace poll, without the horserace they're...not very useful.

[ElectionsGuy]

What's notable here is if we're to believe this poll a third of primary voters want Sanders to drop out? That's significantly high given his support thus far.

[eric82oslo]

Kirsten Gillibrand does surprisingly well in this poll!

John Delaney should drop out already...

[wbrocks67]

I'm more confused about Trump's 48/49 job approval when he has like a -11 nationwide average right now. This poll is seriously flawed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is now, once the debates happen Beto and Harris voters willl replace Sanders numbers.