if the supreme court strikes down the VRA...

[krazen1211]

The Illinois Constitution bars legislative mid decade redistricting.

[krazen1211]

The Illinois Constitution bars legislative mid decade redistricting.

Not for Congress, only for the legislature.

True, but I see no mechanism to get those blacks out of the Jackson/Rush/Davis districts.

Part of the ultimate issue is that people are using lawsuits to settle what the Missouri judge called a political quarrel. Perhaps that always occurred, but it seems to have ramped up this cycle.

[krazen1211]

I wonder how aggressive the southern states' GOP would get, in the absence of the VRA...

Miss.: certainly 4 safe GOP seats
Ala.: probably 7 safe GOP seats
Ga.: probably 2 Dem seats in Atlanta, the rest safe GOP
S.C.: probably would draw a Dem or swing seat with rest safe GOP
N.C.: probably similar to actual map
La.: probably 6 safe GOP seats esp. with New Orleans losing population

Texas would probably draw a few urban or border Dem packs.

Any other thoughts...

In Texas the Democrats would get many 2 seats in Houston, 1 in Dallas, 1 in Austin/San Antonio, 2 in the Valley. Maybe 1 in El Paso if the mappers were generous.

[krazen1211]

How do you avoid a Dem seat in El Paso County? Split it three ways with one of the three being one of those listed under "Valley"?

Split in 2 and connect with Lubbock, Odessa, Midland. Would probably never fly, though, as I don't think Reyes is hated like Doggett is.