NH-UMass Lowell/7 News Daily Tracking Poll Thread

[Tender Branson]

This is a daily tracker:

On the Democratic side, Sanders, an independent U.S. Senator from neighboring Vermont, has support from 61 percent of likely voters. Former secretary of state, U.S. Senator and first lady Hillary Clinton trails with 30 percent of the vote.

On the Republican side, the businessman Trump has support from 38 percent of likely primary voters, followed by Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, with 12 percent. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are tied at 9 percent, followed by Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio at 8 percent and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 7 percent.

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http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/02/new_hampshire_poll_gives_donal.html

[Tender Branson]

After yesterday's polling debacle I think we cansafely disregard all these polls which show Sanders winning by a gazzilion points.

Why ? The last polls were pretty accurate in IA for the Dems, when averaged.

[Tender Branson]

Jan. 31-Feb. 2 tracking results:

61% Sanders
32% Clinton

38% Trump
14% Cruz
12% Rubio

I guess 33-60% of this sample was already conducted after the IA caucus.

http://www.uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx

[Tender Branson]

Democrats:
Sanders — 61 (-2)
Clinton — 32 (+2)
O'Malley* — 1 (No Change)

HILLMENTUM!!!

The socialist codger from Vermont crumbles after his failure to win Iowa.
Soon his campaign will stink like yesterday's fish.

MoE movement, nothing else.

Bernie will perform strongly in NH, but I'll doubt it will be anywhere near what this poll shows.

[Tender Branson]

This poll was conducted over a three day period from 2/1/2016-2/3/2016. This means that the next poll will be the first to be conducted fully after the Iowa Caucuses.

Change from yesterday:

Democrats:
Clinton — +4
Sanders — -3

Clinton now leads people over the age of 65 52-40, and post graduate degree educated 49-44. She is behind in all other groups with 18-29 year olds being her worst at 87-13 (zero undecided) Sanders.

Great news! The socialist codger from Vermont is crashing and burning like an Air Malaysia plane over the Indian Ocean.

No. UMass Lowell was the only poll to have Sanders above 60 and showing the biggest margin.

It's only back to normal.

[Tender Branson]

#SocialistCodger has stopped collapsing with today's release:

57% Bernie (+2 comp. with yesterday)
40% Hillary (-1)

36% Trump (+1)
14% Rubio (nc)
13% Cruz (nc)
10% Bush (nc)
  9% Kasich (-1)
  4% Christie (nc)
  4% Fiorina (+1)
  3% Carson (nc)

[Tender Branson]

A few other facts from todays release:

* Bernie leads non-whites by 60-40 (but they are only 6% of the LV sample)
* Among the broader sample of registered Dem. primary voters, Sanders leads 60-35. Which means the higher the turnout on Tuesday, the better for him.