Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Barnes]

A take away, for what these Volkshammer-level seats are worth:

The Liberals are clearly holding their 2015 vote and continuing to drain from the (currently) listless Dippers while the Tories have little to worry about in their strongholds. The reduced margin in Markham is mainly due to (rather appalling) branch stacking for Ng, but these types of seats will eventual start to give the Government headaches closer to 2019.

And Canadians don't feel like voting in by-elections.

[Barnes]

Btw, Emilie Taman is a superb candidate. The next Ontario provincial election is. A year away and while the federal Liberals are still relatively popular, the Ontario Liberals most definitely are not. The Ontario Liberals are so unpopular they could be reduced to half a dozen seats. I wonder if Taman could be convinced to run for the Ontario NDP in Ottawa Centre (where she actually lives)

And Vanier would be one of those half dozen seats!

Exactly. That seat has been a Grit stronghold since 1935. The Ontario Liberals will probably do horrendously poorly at the provincial election, but I don't see that having much of an indicative effect federally.

[Barnes]

Btw, Emilie Taman is a superb candidate. The next Ontario provincial election is. A year away and while the federal Liberals are still relatively popular, the Ontario Liberals most definitely are not. The Ontario Liberals are so unpopular they could be reduced to half a dozen seats. I wonder if Taman could be convinced to run for the Ontario NDP in Ottawa Centre (where she actually lives)

And Vanier would be one of those half dozen seats!

Exactly. That seat has been a Grit stronghold since 1935. The Ontario Liberals will probably do horrendously poorly at the provincial election, but I don't see that having much of an indicative effect federally.

Don't forget, there was just a provincial by-election in Ottawa-Vanier, where the Liberals still won by a large margin.

Oh yeah of course. I meant horribly province-wide, and yet they still hold Vanier!