Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[Njall]

I must say, as disappointing as the CPC margins in Calgary are, they're not too surprising. Aside from the histories of those ridings, the other campaigns seemed to have little-to-no ground game.

I still proudly voted for Scott Forsyth in Calgary Heritage though - the thought of Bob Benzen as my MP-to-be is more than a little nauseating.

[Njall]

Markham--Thornhill (189/189 polls)
Mary Ng (Liberal): 51.3% (-4.4)
Ragavan Paranchothy (Conservative): 39.0% (+6.7)
Gregory Hines (NDP): 3.5% (-7.2)
Dorian Baxter (Progressive Canadian): 3.0%
Caryn Bergmann (Green): 2.2% (+0.9)
Brendan Reilly (Libertarian): 0.6%
Above Znoneofthe (Independent): 0.4%

[Njall]

Saint-Laurent (182/182 polls)
Emmanuella Lambropoulos (Liberal): 59.1% (-2.5)
Jimmy Yu (Conservative): 19.6% (+0.1)
Daniel Green (Green): 8.0% (+6.6)
Mathieu Auclair (NDP): 7.8% (-3.7)
William Fayad (Bloc Quebecois): 4.9% (+0.2)
Chinook Blais-Leduc (Rhinoceros): 0.7%

[Njall]

Calgary Heritage (204/204 polls)
Bob Benzen (Conservative): 71.5% (+7.7)
Scott Forsyth (Liberal): 21.7% (-4.3)
Khalis Ahmed (NDP): 2.9% (-5.4)
Taryn Knorren (Green): 1.8% (-0.3)
Jeff Willerton (Christian Heritage): 1.4%
Darcy Gerow (Libertarian): 0.4%
Stephen Garvey (National Advancement): 0.3%

[Njall]

Calgary Midnapore (230/230 polls)
Stephanie Kusie (Conservative): 77.2% (+10.5)
Haley Brown (Liberal): 17.0% (-5.6)
Holly Heffernan (NDP): 2.5% (-5.2)
Ryan Zedic (Green): 2.1% (-0.6)
Larry Heather (Christian Heritage): 0.9%
Kulbir Singh Chawla (National Advancement): 0.3%

[Njall]

Ottawa--Vanier (255/255 polls)
Mona Fortier (Liberal): 51.2% (-6.4)
Emilie Taman (NDP): 28.7% (+9.4)
Adrian Papara (Conservative): 15.4 (-3.7)
Nira Dookeran (Green): 3.3% (+0.2)
John Turmel (Independent): 0.5%
Damien Wilson (Libertarian): 0.5% (-0.3)
Christina Wilson (Independent): 0.3%

[Njall]

Calgary-Lougheed MLA Dave Rodney is resigning his seat Nov. 1 to allow Kenney to get into the legislature.

[Njall]

Actually it's three leaders going up against each other: the Green leader is running in Lougheed, too.

lol. Well, the Alberta Greens are especially irrelevant due to not having their s**t together as a party. This despite the federal Greens doing well in certain pockets of the province in the past.

Didn't they finish second or something in the Calgary-Centre by-election a few years ago?

Third, but with 26% (the first-Place Conservative got 37%)

[Njall]

I missed the exact number because Elections Alberta is using vote tabulators and the page updated too quickly, but Kenney got approximately 77% of the vote in the advance polls (which had a notably high turnout).

[Njall]

In looking through the Lougheed results, one point of interest is that it appears Kenney underperformed in the northern part of the riding (Woodbine and Woodlands; the area north of Fish Creek Park), which is whiter, older, and wealthier than the riding as a whole. This is a reverse of results from the 2015 provincial and 2017 municipal election, where the northern part of the riding was friendlier to conservatives compared to the southern part. It's possible that this was caused by lower turnout amongst NDP-friendly younger voters, who are more prominent in the south of the riding (particularly in Bridlewood, the community that was built most recently out of those in the riding), combined with Kenney's organizational strength in minority communities (which are also more prominent in the south, with notable Chinese and Filipino concentrations), but that's a pure guess.