Baker will probably have an easy reelection, though Hogan will have a much tougher fight on his hands. It may even be in his best interest to not even run for reelection and instead run for the open senate seat if Mikulski retires.
That's ridiculous. 1st of all, Mikulski's seat is up in 2016, so I think you meant to say Cardin's. Do you really think Hogan will have an easier race for Senate than for Governor? Most of Hogan's campaigning was around state-based issues, and the reasons why he was elected Governor have nothing to do with national politics. There's value in incumbancy, remember. Hogan will lose that value if he runs for Senate.
And I hope you didn't mean 2016, because presidential-year turnout will never elect a Republican in Maryland.
I did mix up Mikulski and Cardin, so my mistake on that part, and I did mean 2018. Of course being the incumbent governor would help him some if he were to run for reelection, but it might not be enough. I would think that a senate race would become more subject to national waves (say, a republican wave in 2018) than a gubernatorial one, and having experience as a governor in a state would definitely be an advantage in running for a senate race in that state. Maryland in a midterm year could very plausibly elect a Republican senator given the right candidate, and a governor would be a strong one. For example, Delaware in 2010 would've probably gone Republican in the senate race had Mike Castle won in the primary.
