dspNY
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,928
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« on: September 26, 2012, 11:01:12 AM » |
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FL is probably an outlier, but who knows because seniors may have been turned off by Ryan (they pay attention to the AARP), and an Obama 9 point lead in FL is most likely built on seniors turning their back on Romney. I still think Obama only leads by 2-4 points here.
Pennsylvania looks right, Romney basically gave up on the state early on and Obama still has his ground game established there.
The big result is Ohio. Every single poll (except for the crap Gravis poll with 11% undecided) has Obama between 48 and 53% and Romney no higher than 46% since Romney's Libya remarks and the 47% tape. Even if you weight for Party ID and make the state D+4, Obama still leads by the same 5 points that the Ohio Poll (U. of Cincinnati) found.
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