I honestly don't know what to think of the GOP VP picks anymore

[Lunar]

I don't think Thune, Portman, etc. necessarily hurt with independents if they have at least a half-decent PR team.  I mean, anyone can be cast as unacceptable by Obama's machine  if not handled properly.

There's no perfect choice for either candidate that 100% satisfies the base and 100% satisfies moderates, naturally.  McCain, as a historical moderate (at least publicly) in need of his base at the moment, faces a much more difficult decision than Obama.

[Lunar]

McCain has a terrible choice in front of him, no doubt about it.

I think both McCain and Obama have powerful forces in their party pushing for choices that they personally detest and could alienate the swing voters they hope to capture with their messages.

Are these standard political contradictions that we tend to exaggerate?  Meeeehbee

[Lunar]

I know someone in Minnesota who says Tom Pawlenty will totally deliver this swing state to Jon McCain.  It has got to be Pawlenty because Minnesota lies in the balance!

And Wisconsin...remember the "WOW THE VP IS FROM A STATE CLOSE TO MINE I'LL VOTE VOTE FOR X CANDIDATE" effect.

That overpowers "the opposing candidate is from the neighboring state" effect, right?  VP Pawlenty > Illinois Obama. 

Dare I suggest the double-neighboring state effect?  All sates which neighbor a neighboring state of a vice-presidential candidate are hearby considered safe or swing states.  Illinois better watch out for the PAWLENTY TRAIN.