India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

Too early to say if Modi will lose in 2024? My gut says he does if Trump did and Bolsonaro more than likely will, though politics is different in each of those 3 countries (or so it seems coming from an American).

Assuming the current surge reaches its peak sometime in May and then slowly recede Modi should be OK for 2024 given the relative weakness of the alternative.  Main risk for BJP is if they somehow do something to overreach policy-wise that destroys the Modi brand or have a civil war over Modi's successor (Amit Shah vs UP CM Yogi Adityanath).

I can't imagine what it would take for Modi to become personally unpopular. He will have the support of core BJP/NDA voters no matter what, and the swing voters didn't seem bothered by the demonetisation fiasco. I have doubts that the pandemic will make too much of a dent either.

That said, wasn't UPA's win in 2004 a shock? Vajpayee was popular, and the economy was doing well. The NDA even campaigned on a "shining India" platform and seemed absolutely certain they were going to repeat. In retrospect, were there any signs of trouble? Or could the UPA hope for a miracle in 2024 too?

I think the difference between 2024 and 2004 would be that the fundamentals are more in BJP's favor. Despite BJP's victory over INC in 1996 1998 and 1998 they were mostly victories of anti-incumbency (1996) and superior alliance building (1998 and 1999) while at a fundamental level INC was still stronger than the BJP.  In 2004 Vajpayee was popular but was barely not popular enough to beat back an INC that also got wise to the alliance building game. 

This time around INC will be a lot weaker relative to the BJP in 2024 when compared to 2004.  Worse INC still have an image of itself of the INC of 2004-2009 which will impede its ability to make the right deals with other anti-BJP parties.

The only thing going for INC is that the other 2 times there was an pro-incumbent landslide (1971 INC  and 1984 INC) the very next election saw the ruling party lose due to the opposition banding together (1977 and 1989.)  In both cases INC also hurt itself with increased corruption, policy overreach, and internal splits.  2021 BJP does not seem to have another of these aliments. But 2024 is still 3 years ago and plenty of times to BJP to score some self goals. 

[jaichind]

India has postal voting?

Yes.  Traditionally this is the military vote which leans BJP.  Due to COVID-19 there are more of it now but still relatively small in number.   Still it makes a difference in close races. 

Interesting. Is there any research on the military leaning towards BJP? Any divide between officers and the rank and file? The political affiliation of soldiers seem to be a taboo subject in India.

Over the last few election cycles election night coverage commentators often make this point (postal votes are mostly military votes and military votes lean BJP.)  I have to assume they know what they are talking about.  Of course this time around this holds less true given a large number of people that cannot come to to the polls due to COVID-19.

[eos]

India has postal voting?

Yes.  Traditionally this is the military vote which leans BJP.  Due to COVID-19 there are more of it now but still relatively small in number.   Still it makes a difference in close races. 

Interesting. Is there any research on the military leaning towards BJP? Any divide between officers and the rank and file? The political affiliation of soldiers seem to be a taboo subject in India.

Over the last few election cycles election night coverage commentators often make this point (postal votes are mostly military votes and military votes lean BJP.)  I have to assume they know what they are talking about.  Of course this time around this holds less true given a large number of people that cannot come to to the polls due to COVID-19.

I see. I wasn't quite sure because many Indian soldiers are Sikhs, which, as a group, doesn't necessarily favour the BJP.

[jaichind]

India has postal voting?

Yes.  Traditionally this is the military vote which leans BJP.  Due to COVID-19 there are more of it now but still relatively small in number.   Still it makes a difference in close races. 

Interesting. Is there any research on the military leaning towards BJP? Any divide between officers and the rank and file? The political affiliation of soldiers seem to be a taboo subject in India.

Over the last few election cycles election night coverage commentators often make this point (postal votes are mostly military votes and military votes lean BJP.)  I have to assume they know what they are talking about.  Of course this time around this holds less true given a large number of people that cannot come to to the polls due to COVID-19.

I see. I wasn't quite sure because many Indian soldiers are Sikhs, which, as a group, doesn't necessarily favour the BJP.

Well, clearly this logic would not hold if we are talking about a Punjab election.  The assumption here is a non-Sikh military man would lean BJP.

[eos]

India has postal voting?

Yes.  Traditionally this is the military vote which leans BJP.  Due to COVID-19 there are more of it now but still relatively small in number.   Still it makes a difference in close races. 

Interesting. Is there any research on the military leaning towards BJP? Any divide between officers and the rank and file? The political affiliation of soldiers seem to be a taboo subject in India.

Over the last few election cycles election night coverage commentators often make this point (postal votes are mostly military votes and military votes lean BJP.)  I have to assume they know what they are talking about.  Of course this time around this holds less true given a large number of people that cannot come to to the polls due to COVID-19.

I see. I wasn't quite sure because many Indian soldiers are Sikhs, which, as a group, doesn't necessarily favour the BJP.

Well, clearly this logic would not hold if we are talking about a Punjab election.  The assumption here is a non-Sikh military man would lean BJP.

Oh yes, I was thinking in terms of the military in general. I am still not sure to what extent being in the military changes caste/religion equations, but I guess the media will know what they are talking about.

[jaichind]

Oh yes, I was thinking in terms of the military in general. I am still not sure to what extent being in the military changes caste/religion equations, but I guess the media will know what they are talking about.

I have to assume that post-Kargil War of 1999 the non-Sikh military would would lean BJP.

[eos]

Too early to say if Modi will lose in 2024? My gut says he does if Trump did and Bolsonaro more than likely will, though politics is different in each of those 3 countries (or so it seems coming from an American).

Assuming the current surge reaches its peak sometime in May and then slowly recede Modi should be OK for 2024 given the relative weakness of the alternative.  Main risk for BJP is if they somehow do something to overreach policy-wise that destroys the Modi brand or have a civil war over Modi's successor (Amit Shah vs UP CM Yogi Adityanath).

I can't imagine what it would take for Modi to become personally unpopular. He will have the support of core BJP/NDA voters no matter what, and the swing voters didn't seem bothered by the demonetisation fiasco. I have doubts that the pandemic will make too much of a dent either.

That said, wasn't UPA's win in 2004 a shock? Vajpayee was popular, and the economy was doing well. The NDA even campaigned on a "shining India" platform and seemed absolutely certain they were going to repeat. In retrospect, were there any signs of trouble? Or could the UPA hope for a miracle in 2024 too?

I think the difference between 2024 and 2004 would be that the fundamentals are more in BJP's favor. Despite BJP's victory over INC in 1996 1998 and 1998 they were mostly victories of anti-incumbency (1996) and superior alliance building (1998 and 1999) while at a fundamental level INC was still stronger than the BJP.  In 2004 Vajpayee was popular but was barely not popular enough to beat back an INC that also got wise to the alliance building game.  

This time around INC will be a lot weaker relative to the BJP in 2024 when compared to 2004.  Worse INC still have an image of itself of the INC of 2004-2009 which will impede its ability to make the right deals with other anti-BJP parties.

The only thing going for INC is that the other 2 times there was an pro-incumbent landslide (1971 INC  and 1984 INC) the very next election saw the ruling party lose due to the opposition banding together (1977 and 1989.)  In both cases INC also hurt itself with increased corruption, policy overreach, and internal splits.  2021 BJP does not seem to have another of these aliments. But 2024 is still 3 years ago and plenty of times to BJP to score some self goals.  

TMC made some overtures to the INC during the election, but they might change their tune if they win a majority.

I am not sure the INC will be able to make common grounds with other non-BJP opposition parties. A deal will presumably include compromises in seat allocations, and anything too favourable to INC rivals will raise the ire of local INC outfits. Isn't that why Mamata Banerjee rebelled? That she thought the national INC tacitly accepted the Left ruling Bengal in return for support nationally?

AAP doesn't seem interested in allying with the INC. In fact, they are well-positioned to play spoilsports in states like Punjab, Gujarat and Uttrakhand.

As it is, things look real tough for INC in 2024. I think they will have to do really well on their own and hope to rope in opportunistic partners afterwards. Winning in Assam this cycle, and then wresting states from the BJP in 2022, especially Gujarat, will be a good start.

[jaichind]

BTW in WB they will only count 292 out of the 294 seats.  The reason why is that in 2 of the seats one of the candidate passed away due to COVID-19.

[eos]

Jaichind, are you following the election on an Indian news channel? 

[eos]

TMC leading BJP in postal ballot, with 55 to 49 so far.

In 2016, the postal ballot result was INC+Left 231 and TMC 59.

[eos]

Leads as of 10:40 according to NDTV

WB
TMC+ 154
BJP+  125
LEFT/INC 4
OTH 2
Awaiting 9

Tamil Nadu
DMK+ 131
AIADMK 98
MNM+ 1
AMMK+ 1
OTH
Awaiting 2

Kerela
LEFT 85
UDF 50
BJP+ 1
OTH 4

Assam
NDA 80
UPA 37
AJP 1
OTH 2 (RF?)
Awaiting 6

Puducherry
NDA 12
UPA 4
AMMK+ 0
OTH 1
Awaiting 13

[Sestak]

Everything in line with prevailing exits so far, it would seem. WB should be down to the wire.

[jaichind]

Around 1-3 rounds so far so the results are beginning to take shape.  NDTV choose 2019 as calibration for WB and Assam and 2016 for the rest

WB            Seats   vs 2019
TMC+          168        +5
BJP+           121         
LEFT/INC        1          -7
OTH               2         +2
Awaiting         2

Tamil Nadu  Seats    vs 2016
DMK+          136       +38
AIADM          96         -40
MNM+            1         +1
AMMK+          1          +1
OTH

Kerela        Seats    vs 2016
LDF              85         -11
UDF             50           +8
NDA              4           +3
OTH              1

Assam        Seats    vs 2019
NDA            85         +7
UPA             40         -2
AJP+             0           
OTH              1          -5

Puducherry  Seats  vs 2016
NDA             12        +3
UPA               4         -3
AMMK+         0
OTH              1
Awaiting       13

I need to start looking at vote share to get a sense on where these leads will go from here.

[eos]

Everything in line with prevailing exits so far, it would seem. WB should be down to the wire.

AIADMK is greatly outperforming the opinion and exit polls.

[jaichind]

Assam vote share so far (I have to compute UPPL by hand) (NOTA not stripped out)

NDA    45.55%
BJP       32.46%
AGP        7.74%
UPPL      5.35%

UPA     43.17%
INC       30.39%
AIUDF     8.04%
BPF         3.88%
CPM        0.68%
CPI         0.11%
RJD         0.04%
AGM        0.03%

Looks like UPPL is sweeping Bodoland.  If these vote share trends continues this should be a comfortable win for NDA.

[jaichind]

WB vote share (NOTA stripped out).  I can only get INC CPM CPI for Left Front-INC-ISF

AITC                   48.38%

BJP+                  37.41%
BJP                      37.31%
AJSU                    0.10%

Left Front-INC    7.51%
CPM                    4.57%
INC                     2.79%
CPI                     0.15%

Looks like the AITC will win by a landslide and the seat count will move in AITC's favor

[eos]

Assam vote share so far (I have to compute UPPL by hand) (NOTA not stripped out)

NDA    45.55%
BJP       32.46%
AGP        7.74%
UPPL      5.35%

UPA     43.17%
INC       30.39%
AIUDF     8.04%
BPF         3.88%
CPM        0.68%
CPI         0.11%
RJD         0.04%
AGM        0.03%

Looks like UPPL is sweeping Bodoland.  If these vote share trends continues this should be a comfortable win for NDA.

I am also surprised with AGP performance. Many people suggested they would be the weak link, but they have more than held their own.

INC+AIUDF are also running behind their 2016 voteshare of 31.3 + 13.2. You can see it's mainly the AIUDF, and I suspect its because they stood down in most constituencies. At the same time, the INC hasn't been able to capitalise for whatever reason. Polarisation of Hindu votes in favour of NDA maybe?

[S019]

Despite the Trinamool Congress seeming likely to hold its majority, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee seems in danger of losing in Nandigram, choosing to contest in that district after contesting from Bhanipur since 2011.

[eos]

Despite the Trinamool Congress seeming likely to hold its majority, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee seems on track to lose in Nandigram, choosing to contest in that district after contesting from Bhanipur since 2011.

I am not sure about that. As far as I know, the earlier precincts are favourbale to her opponent, Suvendhu Adhikari. According to pollster wisdom, she is supposed to claw back and win comfortably as counting goes on.

[jaichind]

Looks like my gut instincts are run and that there is a pro-incumbent bias in the count so far with ruling parties outperforming across the board, even in TN.

[S019]

Despite the Trinamool Congress seeming likely to hold its majority, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee seems on track to lose in Nandigram, choosing to contest in that district after contesting from Bhanipur since 2011.

I am not sure about that. As far as I know, the earlier precincts are favourbale to her opponent, Suvendhu Adhikari. According to pollster wisdom, she is supposed to claw back and win comfortably as counting goes on.

Yeah my bad, she's in danger of losing, the media source I was checking framed it differently, so I checked other sources, changed my post and edited it before you posted the reply.

[jaichind]

Despite the Trinamool Congress seeming likely to hold its majority, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee seems on track to lose in Nandigram, choosing to contest in that district after contesting from Bhanipur since 2011.

I am not sure about that. As far as I know, the earlier precincts are favourbale to her opponent, Suvendhu Adhikari. According to pollster wisdom, she is supposed to claw back and win comfortably as counting goes on.

Agreed.  I expect her to win by 20000.  The Muslim heavy rounds are not counted yet in Nandigram

[eos]

Looks like my gut instincts are run and that there is a pro-incumbent bias in the count so far with ruling parties outperforming across the board, even in TN.

What do you mean? Pro-incumbency in the electorate, or pro-incumbent bias in the counting of the votes itself? You aren't suggesting malpractice?

[eos]

Despite the Trinamool Congress seeming likely to hold its majority, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee seems on track to lose in Nandigram, choosing to contest in that district after contesting from Bhanipur since 2011.

I am not sure about that. As far as I know, the earlier precincts are favourbale to her opponent, Suvendhu Adhikari. According to pollster wisdom, she is supposed to claw back and win comfortably as counting goes on.

Yeah my bad, she's in danger of losing, the media source I was checking framed it differently, so I checked other sources, changed my post and edited it before you posted the reply.

She will come out of this greatly strengthened. Has to be the opposition's Prime Ministerial candidate to take on Modi, although it remains to be seen whether INC will acquiescence.

[jaichind]

Around 2-5 rounds so far so the results are beginning to take shape.  NDTV choose 2019 as calibration for WB and Assam and 2016 for the rest.

AITC gaining like I my vote share analysis far would suggest.

WB            Seats   vs 2019
AITC+         186        +23
BJP+           103        -18
LEFT/INC        1          -7
OTH               2         +2
Awaiting         2

Tamil Nadu  Seats    vs 2016
DMK+          135       +37
AIADM          96         -39
MNM+            1         +1
AMMK+          1          +1
OTH

Kerela        Seats    vs 2016
LDF              87           -9
UDF             48           +6
NDA              4           +3
OTH              1

Assam        Seats    vs 2019
NDA            81         +3
UPA             44         +2
AJP+             0           
OTH              1          -5

Puducherry  Seats  vs 2016
NDA             12        +3
UPA               4         -3
AMMK+         0
OTH              1
Awaiting       13