British Local Elections, May 2024

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786772357735997709Oof

[Alcibiades]

Khan’s won London South West - another constituency that’s always voted Tory for Mayor and Assembly, with the single exception of a vote for Livingston in 2000. Includes heavy Lib Dem areas like Richmond.

The Assembly result will be interesting; usually a Lib Dem-Tory fight and I assume SK won because a lot of Lib Dems voted Sadiq for Mayor and LD in the two assembly ballots.

The Lib Dems have won it, which is actually their first ever single-member Assembly constituency win (the Tories had always previously won South West).

[TheTide]

Combined results so far for England PCC's and elected mayors (where no PCC election)

Labour 42.6
Conservative 30.7
Liberal Democrat 13.0
Green 5.2 (8.9 where standing)
Others 8.5

Probably a good combination of 'expected' results and over/under performances. Worth noting that in 'cop shop' elections, you do expect the Tories to do better

If Sky News had done a general election projection based on this then it wouldn't have been met with as much derision.

[Torrain]

Khan’s won London South West - another constituency that’s always voted Tory for Mayor and Assembly, with the single exception of a vote for Livingston in 2000. Includes heavy Lib Dem areas like Richmond.

The Assembly result will be interesting; usually a Lib Dem-Tory fight and I assume SK won because a lot of Lib Dems voted Sadiq for Mayor and LD in the two assembly ballots.

Aye - I know the seat for extended-family reasons, and I’ve been curious whether the Lib Dems might finally break through and win their first assembly constituency. It’s full of exactly the sort of affluent, anti-Tory voters you’d expect to exploit tactical voting and ticket-splitting.

Edit: just seen they’ve won it.

[Alcibiades]

The Tories actually finished third in South West!

https://twitter.com/conrad_aml/status/1786784144892035157?s=46&t=fiWOCdxjhyq...

[Oryxslayer]

Combined results so far for England PCC's and elected mayors (where no PCC election)

Labour 42.6
Conservative 30.7
Liberal Democrat 13.0
Green 5.2 (8.9 where standing)
Others 8.5

Probably a good combination of 'expected' results and over/under performances. Worth noting that in 'cop shop' elections, you do expect the Tories to do better

Obviously that comes with the health warning that some of Labour's best areas don't have these, and substituting the Mayors who do have the power instead doesn't exactly work. Personalities exist int he second group whereas the first is forgotten.


The interesting thing about the numbers is that the map is quite blue despite the topline. And this is cause 12/17 Tory wins in the P&Cs right now are <5%, with the average Conservative result across the board being in the min-30s. Firstly it says that the elimination of runoffs saved these little-noticed offices - but basically no others given the Tory collapse since 2023. Was the unpopular change really worth it if this is the only reward?

Secondly, and more importantly, it points at the distribution of votes across the country. The Tories are holding up well in their rural and blue suburbs, but are losing all the more populous urban, commuter, or town centres in between. That converted to a GE probably means Labour are not hitting the highs of the 500ish universal swing models cause the remaining Tory vote is concentrated enough - unless Reform ends up creating funky vote splits. But conversely, it means even the seats closer to the end of the 425ish tail are likely to be more solidly for Labour than we suspect. And the same for the Lib-Dems of course, but with a more limited target board.

And that's not exactly a surprising story, given how Labour are sweeping places like Redditch, Crawley, Rushmoor etc but aren't getting absurd numbers in the (wisely derided) national voteshare.

[GoTfan]

And as a little bit of icing on the cake, Count Binface has finished ahead of the Britain First candidate.

Bit disappointing he didn't win overall. I guess Londoners cannot appreciate true genius.

[Alcibiades]

There is a full recount underway in Coventry.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though in a lot of the PCC elections that were narrow Tory holds, the LibDems are doing better not just than polling would indicate - but a bit higher than you would expect them to get in a GE.

If some of that vote were to go Labour then, who knows?

(to be clear, I do think those predictions of an outrageously big Labour landslide are *probably* wrong - but do note that "probably")  

[TheTide]

There is a full recount underway in Coventry.

Hopefully it's not based upon Coventry being really close, because that would be stupid. This isn't an Assembly or Parliamentary election and there aren't seats up for grabs in Coventry in this case. Assuming it isn't then it might indicate a really close overall result (closer than what is being reported), which would surely mean a full recount in all of the other boroughs too.

[Alcibiades]

There is a full recount underway in Coventry.

Hopefully it's not based upon Coventry being really close, because that would be stupid. This isn't an Assembly or Parliamentary election and there aren't seats up for grabs in Coventry in this case. Assuming it isn't then it might indicate a really close overall result (closer than what is being reported), which would surely mean a full recount in all of the other boroughs too.

Yeah, it's unclear to me why it would only be in Coventry.

[Harlow]

The Tories actually finished third in South West!

https://twitter.com/conrad_aml/status/1786784144892035157?s=46&t=fiWOCdxjhyq...

And fourth in Lambeth & Southwark.

[LAB-LIB]

LOL Susan Hall's concession speech was like 30 seconds. "I would hope he would stop patronizing people like me". At least she conceded unlike her favorite President...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, it's unclear to me why it would only be in Coventry.

I would assume the agent has been able to convince the RO that there was some sloppiness in the counting that may have caused errors. I note that they've only been able to argue for bundle checks in the other boroughs.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786798945944957059

[Blair]

Khan’s won London South West - another constituency that’s always voted Tory for Mayor and Assembly, with the single exception of a vote for Livingston in 2000. Includes heavy Lib Dem areas like Richmond.

The Assembly result will be interesting; usually a Lib Dem-Tory fight and I assume SK won because a lot of Lib Dems voted Sadiq for Mayor and LD in the two assembly ballots.

The Lib Dems have won it, which is actually their first ever single-member Assembly constituency win (the Tories had always previously won South West).

Even more hilariously the Tories came third!

The only traditional labour part of this seat is Hounslow; and ofc even pre 2015 half of Hounslow borough had a Conservative MP!

[Blair]

It's very fitting for Starmer's Labour if they are going to lose 20% of the vote in Birmingham, only to somehow win with titanic levels swings outside; this is actually the reserve of the reason why Labour were so pessimistic about winning. Was assumed the party was still doing quite poorly outside of the metro area.

[CumbrianLefty]

Parker still winning despite that massive vote for Yakoob in Brum would be genuinely astonishing.

[Alcibiades]

Labour have gained the West Central Assembly constituency by a margin of just over 3%.

[Blair]

Even for the standards of political reporting this was terrible-especially as said person is rumoured to be fronting the BBCs election night coverage.

We all dabble in rumours but even we weren't saying 'it's looking closer' before a vote had been reported.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1786499484676985054

[Oryxslayer]

Parker still winning despite that massive vote for Yakoob in Brum would be genuinely astonishing.

Honest question here: how possible/likely is it for Galloway to do the chicken run? His initial by-election victory was not that convincing and results across most of greater Manchester were not good to him in these locals. Instead the pro-Gaza ticket did better in more small-c conservative Muslim areas in South/West Yorkshire and the Midlands. Even if he has burned bridges in some of these areas, there's still others.

Even for the standards of political reporting this was terrible-especially as said person is rumoured to be fronting the BBCs election night coverage.

We all dabble in rumours but even we weren't saying 'it's looking closer' before a vote had been reported.

Try slapping a community note on that comparing the result and polls, saying its unwise to speculate lol

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Street's lead in Walsall is about 6k votes, which is down from about 16k last time around.

[Torrain]

Honest question here: how possible/likely is it for Galloway to do the chicken run?

It’s pretty close to the election to set up a new base, but I wouldn’t be surprised. He won Bethnal Green and Bow in the 2005 election, but carpet-bagged to Poplar and Limehouse in 2010 because he thought it was a better prospect.

He’s never been re-elected anywhere since he left Labour - he’s a one-hit wonder who scarpers as soon as his constituents realise he’s not going to be an active local MP.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786806323096514765

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786806323096514765

This is where the raw vote totals would be more useful...