Let the great boundary rejig commence

[ObserverIE]

Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report has calculated detailed 2010 notionals for the English seats here.

The effects of the changes seem to be to insulate the Conservatives to swings against them while not making much difference to swings towards them:



However, the swing calculations don't seem to take account of a likely slump in the Lib Dem vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Swing calculations can't really do that.

[ObserverIE]

Swing calculations can't really do that.

I know...

Playing around with the figures, the bigger the collapse for the Lib Dems the better it is for the Tories.

On an English breakdown of Con 41 Lab 41 Lib Dem 10 Others 8, the figures give 253-245-3-1. For 36-36-20-8, the figures are 233-240-28-1.

[afleitch]

Click to enlarge. A ward map of Scotland with electorates in thousands. Doesn't included cities. Good for drafting your own proposals

[You kip if you want to...]

Ah, where would cartoonists be without that plum pudding?



(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/97/Caricature_gillray_plumpudding.jpg)

What is supposed to be that thing?
It has a rather strange shape, if it is supposed to be a plum pudding.

It's supposed to be a combination of:

a plumb pudding
a turkey voting for christmas
Nick Clegg
the LibDems' logo



also, the guardian has been caricaturing Cameron as an angrysausage since before the election, no idea why, makes him look more like Andrew Br*ns

I thought it was a condom.

[Smid]

Amazing work on that map, Afleitch, fantastic job!

[afleitch]

This is what I have for Scotland so far (if it was up to me)

I'm not being kind to the Coalition mind I've abolished two Lib Dem held seats and the lone Tory seat. What I've tried to do is to respect links and I think I've managed to avoid turning Lanarkshire into a sh-thole (no jokes please ) in part by linking East Kilbride with Rutherglen. Hamilton isn't split as it's paired up with Blantyre/Cambuslang. There's a big rural (but solid Labour) southern Lanarkshire seat. Motherwell is retained. Coatbridge is linked with Bellshill and Airdrie with Cumbernauld. Falkirk isn't split. Neither is Stirling.

The Borders makes sense. Even Dumfries I think looks sensible. I have a large seat that crosses Ayrshire and Galloway but again it's not unreasonable. I accidently re-created Ayr which would be a far better Tory target. So yeah; bit of fun really.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Dumfries seat is excellent, actually. Galloway-Carrick-Cumnock isn't bad either.

[afleitch]

The Dumfries seat is excellent, actually. Galloway-Carrick-Cumnock isn't bad either.

I thought that linkage made more sense than the link with Lanarkshire and the Borders. It would essentially consolidate Labour's position there but price worth paying.

Labour aren't going to be the big loosers up here; however the cake is cut, because Labour's Westminster vote is so unform (in the same way that the SNP's vote is at Holyrood ) I always loose Lib Dem seats and the lone Tory seat.

Fife wasn't as difficult as I thought. However no other arrangement was satisfactory without splitting the main towns or breaching the council boundaries more than once.

If Argyll doesn't work as I've drawn it, it can be easily re-arranged loosing the Highlands part with an adjustment booting Milngavie into the Glasgow pool.

With Edinburgh I hope I have the numbers to have a Linlithgow seat stretching into Queensferry and part of Corstorphine in the manner in which the Lothian seats did from 1983-1997 and have a large Livingston seat allowing the bulk of Edinburgh to be carved into 4 neat seats.

Of course get one bit wrong and it all goes pearshaped.

[dadge]

Click to enlarge. A ward map of Scotland with electorates in thousands. Doesn't included cities. Good for drafting your own proposals

I'm clicking but nothing happens. :-(

Adrian
ukelect.wordpress.com

[dadge]

Anyone with more experience of this fancy telling me if this would've been workable to avoid Mersey Banks?

Birkenhead - 74,264
Moels and Wallasey - 76,171
Wirral South and West Kirby - 76,871

That's fine, but it's Meols, not Moels :-) (Just call it Wallasey anyway, people won't mind too much.)

[afleitch]

Click to enlarge. A ward map of Scotland with electorates in thousands. Doesn't included cities. Good for drafting your own proposals

I'm clicking but nothing happens. :-(

Adrian
ukelect.wordpress.com

Try right clicking and copying the image then pasting it, or saving the image.

[dadge]

I've "done" the West Midlands now and I've started on the North East

ukelect.wordpress.com

[YL]

The first of the hearings on the proposals started today, in Manchester.  Some details have seeped out, but as yet I haven't seen any of the parties' counterproposals in full.  It does seem that Labour and the Tories have both decided against ward splitting and presumably as a result have created their own monstrosities in the same area where the Commission came up with "Mersey Banks".

[minionofmidas]

The parties are, presumably, the very same bodies who didn't warn the commission in advance that ward splitting would be necessary in the unitaries.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

The first of the hearings on the proposals started today, in Manchester.  Some details have seeped out, but as yet I haven't seen any of the parties' counterproposals in full.  It does seem that Labour and the Tories have both decided against ward splitting and presumably as a result have created their own monstrosities in the same area where the Commission came up with "Mersey Banks".

I was there.  Quoted from another place:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Basically the Tory proposal sorts out some of the more egregious problems of the prov recs without splitting a ward, the Lib Dem proposal is a bit more radical and involves splitting two wards, and the Labour proposal doesn't even try to hide that it's a gerrymander.

[YL]

Basically the Tory proposal sorts out some of the more egregious problems of the prov recs without splitting a ward, the Lib Dem proposal is a bit more radical and involves splitting two wards, and the Labour proposal doesn't even try to hide that it's a gerrymander.

Proposing an obvious gerrymander seems a bit silly given the UK system where the rules generally suggest that such things should be ignored; any idea what they're playing at?

The first Yorkshire hearing is on Thursday; I'll be interested to see what gets put forward (though as I can't make the hearings I don't know when I'll find out).

[minionofmidas]

Proposing an obvious gerrymander seems a bit silly given the UK system where the rules generally suggest that such things should be ignored; any idea what they're playing at?

I would guess that any attempt to not split wards and not make the Labour heartlands look totally ridiculous will pretty inevitably be a Labour gerrymander.

[afleitch]

Scotland out Thursday. Hopefully should get some rumours tomorrow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The inevitable result of a more politicised procedure is a more politicised procedure.

[YL]

The inevitable result of a more politicised procedure is a more politicised procedure.

I don't like what the Tories did either, but I don't think it justifies proposing silly gerrymanders.  [NB the only example I've actually seen is "North West Cheshire", which is truly, truly, horrible.  But maybe things elsewhere aren't as bad as is being made out.]

Plus proposing silly gerrymanders seems a good way of having your ideas rejected, which may well mean more subtle gerrymanders from the other parties being accepted.

[afleitch]

Edinburgh constituencies have been leaked. 4 self contained seats within the city (bang goes my idea of linking in with West Lothian)

Edinburgh South West
Edinburgh East
Edinburgh West
Edinburgh Central and Leith

The 'abolished' seat is Edinburgh South, though in reality it's Edinburgh East that has been chopped. Looking at Edinburgh West, it's going to help the Lib Dems immensely (in a...cough...normal year) as it's taking in Stockbridge, Inverleith and Broughton, all 'not Labour' voting areas (Tories at local, Lib Dems at General, SNP at Holyrood)

Edinburgh South West post Darling (should he step down) looks interesting; it's taking in Grange, Morningside and Fairmilehead.

The rest of the old Edinburgh South seat is taking in Craigmillar, Duddingston and Milton and retaining the student hub.

[afleitch]

So yeah; not sure how the parties react.

A retained Edinburgh South reaching even a smidgeon north or west could have made it a national Lib Dem gain so I have a feeling they will push for that but in doing so they screw up the configuration elsewhere. Labour will no doubt call for Broughton/Stockbridge etc to be moved into Central and Leith with Granton and Trinity moved into West. This takes 'not Labour' territory into Central and Leith and puts Labour territory into West. For that reason I think the Lib Dems will focus on retaining Edinburgh West as drawn with the Tories pushing for retaining Edinburgh South West as drawn as should Darling step down, and Lib Dem voters transfer their allegiance to the Tories it's far better territory for them; my rough estimate is that Darling's majority is halved.

What concerns me is that all 4 seats are at the very upper limit of electorate; it would have made sense to pursue a West Lothian link now, as the next review would see smaller changes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't like what the Tories did either, but I don't think it justifies proposing silly gerrymanders.  [NB the only example I've actually seen is "North West Cheshire", which is truly, truly, horrible.  But maybe things elsewhere aren't as bad as is being made out.]

Oh, I'm not trying to justify that kind of thing. It's just that it isn't even slightly surprising and we can expect more of it from everyone when there's a possible 'need' to do so.

[minionofmidas]

Plus proposing silly gerrymanders seems a good way of having your ideas rejected, which may well mean more subtle gerrymanders from the other parties being accepted.

Indeed.