Simple he is the governor of LA , and as long as he is popular there he will win the state.
This gentleman wants to have a word with you:
Long was never the Democratic nominee
It's Al Smith...
Al smith lost nationally by 18 points, and only lost New York by 2.5 points
That means New York PVI was 15.5 points more democratic than nation
In 1924 Coolidge won Nationally by 25 , and New York by 26 so it's PVI was 1 point more GOP than nation
That's a pretty big swing
Smith was the Dukakis of his day. There were signs in 1988 that the whole Northeast was ready to shift into the Democratic column for good, and that happened in 1992.
People forget that the Democrats fell so far to the point where, literally, no single state was considered a sure thing for the Democrats. That's how bad off they were going into 1988.
